Warren and Biden tied in new nat'l Quinnipaic poll. (Tulsi at 1%).

[pnwmom]

The poll was conducted rom September 19 – 23. Compared to the August poll, Biden's support has slipped and Warren's has increased.

The survey includes 561 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points, i

https://fox61.com/2019/09/25/qu-poll-democratic-primary-neck-and-neck-as-warren-continues-to-climb/

HAMDEN — A new Quinnipiac Poll released Wednesday morning showed Elizabeth Warren continuing to rise in the Democratic primary.

Quinnipiac said Warren has 27% of the vote while Biden has 25% of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic. The numbers are in the margin of error but Quinnipiac said it’s the first time that a candidate other than Biden has had the numerical lead in the primary since Quinnipiac began asking the question in March.

Warren and Biden are followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 16%, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 7%, and California Senator Kamala Harris at 3%. While this is Harris’ lowest number yet, support for these candidates as well as the rest of the field has remained relatively stable since the last national poll in August. No other candidate tops 2%.

“After trailing Biden by double digits since March in the race for the Democratic nomination, Warren catches Biden,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. “We now have a race with two candidates at the top of the field, and they’re leaving the rest of the pack behind.”

SNIP

[BeyondGeography]

1. Warren is beating Biden in this poll

Good.

[pnwmom]

2. When a result is within the margin of error it's a tie, statistically speaking.

In a poll, the rules of statistics apply.

[BeyondGeography]

3. Especially when it's a woman

[pnwmom]

4. If you look at any of my posts discussing poll results, I am consistent in this.

I worked for a pollster a long time ago and we were trained to describe results within the margin of error as ties. Good pollsters do this, though the MSM often encourages the horserace by reporting insignificant differences as if they mattered.

[BeyondGeography]

6. She pays a gender tax; it's what the media does routinely

Not criticizing you.

[DemKittyNC]

5. Adios Tulsi

You will not be missed. Good for Warren and Biden! Luv them both.

[Celerity]

8. Gabbard just qualified for the October debates and will probably

make the cut for November too.

[pnwmom]

9. I saw yesterday that she was still one short. Did she get the last one needed? n/t

[Celerity]

12. She made it yesterday. A+ rated Monmouth poll, for NH

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/24/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard-debate.html

[Iliyah]

7. 561?

[pnwmom]

11. They started with 1337 self-identified registered voters and of that number

561 were Democrats or Democratic leaners.

[Iliyah]

13. Over 700 . . .

This is why I do not trust any of the polls . . .

4.9 margin of error?

[pnwmom]

14. That's why I said the results were a tie. The margin of error is that big

because the sample size was fairly small.

[BeyondGeography]

15. The story is Biden cratering in this poll and Warren rising

It was 32-19 a month ago.

[samnsara]

10. I will be happy with either one..still voting Joe in Primary..but Liz is #2..