Warren Continues To Climb While Biden Slips - Quinnipiac University National Poll

[brooklynite]

Quinnipiac Polling Institute

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden in today's Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll. Warren gets 27 percent of the vote while Biden gets 25 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic. Though well within the margin of error, this is the first time that a candidate other than Biden has had the numerical lead in the primary since Quinnipiac began asking the question in March.

The top two candidates are followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 16 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 7 percent, and California Senator Kamala Harris at 3 percent. While this is Harris' lowest number yet, support for these candidates as well as the rest of the field has remained relatively stable since the last national poll in August. No other candidate tops 2 percent.

In the August national poll, Biden received 32 percent, Warren had 19 percent, Sanders got 15 percent, Harris had 7 percent, and Buttigieg got 5 percent.

While Warren picks up support across the board, she receives one of her largest gains among white voters with a college degree. These voters were split in August, with 29 percent supporting Biden and 25 percent supporting Warren, and today they support Warren over Biden 37 - 20 percent.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

1. It was inevitable... aggressive progressivism beats moderate incrementalism every time!!

Woooohooo... go Elizabeth!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[brooklynite]

2. Like in 2016,,,

[IronLionZion]

4. Who ended up becoming president?

the extremist who shook things up and foiled all the experts.

[BeyondGeography]

5. People want change

Most Democrats have figured that out to Warren’s benefit. From Quinnipiac:

Warren is generating the most excitement among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters, who said 70 - 18 percent that they would be excited if she became the 2020 Democratic nominee. Biden and Sanders would also excite a majority of these voters, who say 56 - 35 percent that they would be excited about Biden and 55 - 38 percent that they would be excited about Sanders.

Half, or 50 percent, of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters want to see the Democratic nominee support policies that would result in major changes but would be more difficult to pass into law, while 42 percent want to see the Democratic nominee support policies that would result in minor changes but would be easier to pass into law. Moreover, 49 percent of these voters think the best way to handle health care is to replace the current private health insurance system with a Medicare for All system, compared to 44 percent who say keeping the current private health insurance system and building on Obamacare is the best way to handle health care. Democratic and Democratic leaning voters also say 55 - 29 percent that they would trust a government health insurance program more than a private health insurance company when it comes to their health care.

"Dig a little deeper, and the reasons behind Warren's rise become more clear. She generates a lot of excitement as a potential nominee," adds Malloy. "On top of that, half of Democrats want a presidential candidate that supports big changes - even if it means things are harder along the way."

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3641

[brooklynite]

7. But you don't run for President if you don't win the nomination first...

Bernie is at about 50%...of where he was in 2016.

[IronLionZion]

24. Trump should never have won the GOP nomination

yet he did. He showed them

Warren is more palatable than Bernie. I don't think she has many haters on our side

[Demsrule86]

19. Sure and then you lose the general...and maybe the house. But I still think Biden will be

the nominee...

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

27. The trajectories are clear... it's looking more and more like it's going to be Elizabeth.

Joe had a good run, but it looks like it's all but over for him. She was dominate in the last debate when on stage with Biden. Not surprising though, given that Elizabeth is the most competent female candidate to ever run for the Democratic nomination.

Whether Elizabeth is your candidate or not - she's currently my #2 - you've got to be happy for her and proud of what she's accomplished so far.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[bluewater]

29. Some articles are saying the race has reached an inflection point.

It sure seems like a sea change is starting to occur in the polls.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

37. I concur... congrats to your candidate. Elizabeth's earned her considerable standing in the polls.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[Demsrule86]

34. There really is no trajectory. It is wishful thinking using a couple of suspect polls...

EW may be competent but she won't win a general ...she won't win in states we need to win -WI, PA and MI. Trump won't be easy to beat and if she is the candidate we don't win the senate for sure; she won't bring out moderate voters to voter ofr our Senatorial candidates. With Biden we have a shot...and the house is endangered...so I hope you are wrong and I am correct. She has my support if she is the nominee, but I hope she is not.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

38. Talk about wishful thinking, but keep thinkin that. The polls are clear, there's no mo Joe-mentum.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[NurseJackie]

32. Poor BS... how humiliating for him. Sixteen percent? Not many delegates for that.

The top two candidates are followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 16 percent,

Poor BS... how humiliating for him. Sixteen percent? Not many delegates for that.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or

He won't be our party's nominee.

Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!

If it's EW then BS won't be her running mate.

Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

There's not going to be a "revolution". I know that's what Sarandon predicted... but it's just not going to happen.

[True Dough]

6. The number of polls showing Warren eclipsing Biden is growing

It cannot be denied. She's a juggernaut!

[still_one]

9. and I would venture to say most of that is coming from Sanders' supporters leaving the Sanders camp

On these national polls previously, it was obvious if you added Sanders plus Warren poll numbers they would eclipse or come close to Bidens.

To me it looks like that break has occurred, where it is Sanders supporters who are jumping ship to Warren.

I suspect Warren is also getting a few points more from previous Harris supporters.

Biden numbers are essentially stagnant.

While I don't put much weighting in national polls at this stage, it appears the individual state polls are also demonstrating a similar trend, which reinforce the trend.

IMHO, what will determine the Democratic nominee will be the undecided Democratic voters

[True Dough]

12. But, but, but

Some of the Biden supporters here at the DU have insisted that Bernie supporters won't migrate to Warren. More of them are apt to go to Biden. They told us so!!!

[Thekaspervote]

13. And here's why we say that!

Morning Consult's polling of voters' 2nd choices indicates no one can catch Biden by other

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/


Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%


So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.


And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%

[True Dough]

26. That's all well and fine

but something is giving Warren an undeniable boost. Perhaps a large segment come from Sanders, maybe not. Either way, I'm happy to see Elizabeth getting a big push.

[still_one]

16. I don't know about that. To me that doesn't even make sense. Why would a Sanders supporter migrate

Biden?

While at this stage it is still too early, I could see some Biden supporters going to Warren though.

I think the forthcoming debates will be more meaningful, and it will be interesting if they motivate those undecided Democrats to take a more definitive stand toward a candidate preference

[boomer_wv]

20. Re

Because some Sanders supporters loathe Warren since she is the clear rival to him. They would support Biden over her for spite.

Let's not forget a number of Sanders supporters who didnt support Hillary either.

[still_one]

23. If that is the reasoning they are using in their decision making process, it doesn't speak well of

their critical thinking skills, and that goes for those who refused to support Hillary in the general election

[boomer_wv]

45. Worse yet.

They handed Trump the White House.

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E900164807961305088&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2Fpolicy-and-politics%2F2017%2F8%2F24%2F16194086%2Fbernie-trump-voters-study

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

39. Denial is all some have left. Joe has peaked... it's all downhill from here for him.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[highplainsdem]

8. Biden's been as low as 22% in this poll, in early July, and bounced back.

And Warren's slight edge in the current poll is from independents, not registered Democrats.

[still_one]

10. I think most of Warren's gains are coming at a cost from Sanders' supporters jumping from Sanders to

Warren. I also sense that Warren is getting some votes from Harris supporters.

The wild card, and what I think will determine our nominee. will be the undecided Democrats, and it is anyone's guess where they will break, though I will add I believe they comprise of at least 30% of Democrats from the numbers I have seen

[Thekaspervote]

15. See post #13

[still_one]

21. Good points about the other Democratic candidates, though I still think it will be the undecided

Democratic voters that determine our nominee.

[bluewater]

30. Not according to this poll. Sanders went up +2%

Last months Quinnipiac poll had Sanders at 14% compared to this month when he is at 16%.

So, at least according to this major poll, Warren's rise is not coming at Sanders' expense so far.

[still_one]

31. He was in the 20 percent, and has drifted down to the teens. This didn't happen over

night or one poll, the trend has been moving that way for sometime

He is not able to move outside his base, and is losing support from that base

Biden’s numbers have essentially remained stagnant

that +2% is not a trend, and looking at all the polls he has been trending down for sometime

Just adding the numbers from Warren and Sanders the total has been pretty constant, and still is, except, those numbers increased for Warren and have decreased for Sanders

That is the control

These state polls also indicate it

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287292871

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

40. So be it... I've predicted that, at some point, Elizabeth & Bernie supporters

will combine forces to take the nomination... their brand of bold aggressive progressivism EASILY defeats Joe's timid moderate incrementalism. The writing's on the wall.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[still_one]

42. The undecided Democrats will determine that, however, I agree with your prediction regarding the

merging of the votes of the two camps.

Of course this only speculation, but I base it on adding the previous poll numbers from Warren and Sanders and the total have remained fairly constant, slightly surpassing Biden's count. I also suspect that some of the Harris loss has probably gone to Warren, but that is just a guess.

Because of the number of undecided Democratic voters I think that is the wild card, and the debates will probably change that dynamic with the undecided voters, along with other Democratic nominees dropping out

We will see

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

43. Yup, should be an interesting few months.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[still_one]

44. Agreed, and debates will be more significant. Interesting is a good word

[LeftTurn3623]

14. gaining from independents

kind of hurts that Biden is the only one that can beat Trump theory.

[still_one]

18. Isn't this about the democrati primary, not the general election? Where do independent voters come

to play in a Democratic primary?

[blm]

25. Many of us never believed the claim that ONLY one candidate could appeal to

Moderates and independents in the general election, a claim that has been posted many times as a reason why we should NOT support Warren in the primary. I think this developing story of an increase among independents supporting Warren’s candidacy deserves attention.

I, personally, am cautious about early polls, but, I understand why some here are cheering these current results after months of being told that their candidate won’t get the votes of moderates and independents in the general election.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

41. That "theory" was made up from whole cloth... it's been debunked many times.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[Yoopy]

35. Independents can vote

So that's irrelevant.

[Yoopy]

36. Warren gained a lot of ground against Democrats compared to August

This contributed to her taking the lead.

[blm]

11. Warren gaining with Independents. That will be great for General Election.

[still_one]

22. Independent are for the general election. They shouldn't have much of an impact on the Democratic

primaries, unless some are speculating these independents will register as Democrats to vote in the Democratic primary

[TwilightZone]

17. 4.9% MOE

That seems higher than Quinnipiac's usual (and they're generally a solid polling organization), so it'll be interesting to see the next couple.

[Politicub]

28. It's no surprise that Warren is climbing. She has had momentum behind her for a while.

But I don't think Biden is losing share as much as these polls would lead one to believe. They don't factor his strong remarks about the impeachment inquiry from yesterday, and I'm not sure if they even take into account dems circling the wagons around Biden when Trump tried to drag him through the mud about Ukraine.

[DrFunkenstein]

33. When You Run as The Inevitable Candidate, What Happens When

You're no longer in front?

I'm surprised that Biden has yet to come up with a defining message other than "I'm With Him."

Meaning Obama, of course.

Meanwhile, Warren has a strong central message of economic populism, a biography that ties directly to it (conveyed with a surprising personal touch), and incredible discipline over that message - all while avoiding any criticism of other Dems.

It is no wonder that she is starting to inch ahead. The only question is how do Dems react to their neighbors saying it's ok to get behind Liz?