Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumWarren Continues To Climb While Biden Slips - Quinnipiac University National Poll
Quinnipiac Polling InstituteThe top two candidates are followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 16 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 7 percent, and California Senator Kamala Harris at 3 percent. While this is Harris' lowest number yet, support for these candidates as well as the rest of the field has remained relatively stable since the last national poll in August. No other candidate tops 2 percent.
In the August national poll, Biden received 32 percent, Warren had 19 percent, Sanders got 15 percent, Harris had 7 percent, and Buttigieg got 5 percent.
While Warren picks up support across the board, she receives one of her largest gains among white voters with a college degree. These voters were split in August, with 29 percent supporting Biden and 25 percent supporting Warren, and today they support Warren over Biden 37 - 20 percent.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Woooohooo... go Elizabeth!!
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,302 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to brooklynite (Reply #2)
MrsCoffee This message was self-deleted by its author.
IronLionZion
(45,380 posts)the extremist who shook things up and foiled all the experts.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,341 posts)Most Democrats have figured that out to Warrens benefit. From Quinnipiac:
Half, or 50 percent, of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters want to see the Democratic nominee support policies that would result in major changes but would be more difficult to pass into law, while 42 percent want to see the Democratic nominee support policies that would result in minor changes but would be easier to pass into law. Moreover, 49 percent of these voters think the best way to handle health care is to replace the current private health insurance system with a Medicare for All system, compared to 44 percent who say keeping the current private health insurance system and building on Obamacare is the best way to handle health care. Democratic and Democratic leaning voters also say 55 - 29 percent that they would trust a government health insurance program more than a private health insurance company when it comes to their health care.
"Dig a little deeper, and the reasons behind Warren's rise become more clear. She generates a lot of excitement as a potential nominee," adds Malloy. "On top of that, half of Democrats want a presidential candidate that supports big changes - even if it means things are harder along the way."
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3641
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,302 posts)Bernie is at about 50%...of where he was in 2016.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
IronLionZion
(45,380 posts)yet he did. He showed them
Warren is more palatable than Bernie. I don't think she has many haters on our side
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)the nominee...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Joe had a good run, but it looks like it's all but over for him. She was dominate in the last debate when on stage with Biden. Not surprising though, given that Elizabeth is the most competent female candidate to ever run for the Democratic nomination.
Whether Elizabeth is your candidate or not - she's currently my #2 - you've got to be happy for her and proud of what she's accomplished so far.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)It sure seems like a sea change is starting to occur in the polls.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)EW may be competent but she won't win a general ...she won't win in states we need to win -WI, PA and MI. Trump won't be easy to beat and if she is the candidate we don't win the senate for sure; she won't bring out moderate voters to voter ofr our Senatorial candidates. With Biden we have a shot...and the house is endangered...so I hope you are wrong and I am correct. She has my support if she is the nominee, but I hope she is not.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,246 posts)It cannot be denied. She's a juggernaut!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,060 posts)On these national polls previously, it was obvious if you added Sanders plus Warren poll numbers they would eclipse or come close to Bidens.
To me it looks like that break has occurred, where it is Sanders supporters who are jumping ship to Warren.
I suspect Warren is also getting a few points more from previous Harris supporters.
Biden numbers are essentially stagnant.
While I don't put much weighting in national polls at this stage, it appears the individual state polls are also demonstrating a similar trend, which reinforce the trend.
IMHO, what will determine the Democratic nominee will be the undecided Democratic voters
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,246 posts)Some of the Biden supporters here at the DU have insisted that Bernie supporters won't migrate to Warren. More of them are apt to go to Biden. They told us so!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,691 posts)Morning Consult's polling of voters' 2nd choices indicates no one can catch Biden by other
candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%
Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%
Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%
Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%
So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.
And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,246 posts)but something is giving Warren an undeniable boost. Perhaps a large segment come from Sanders, maybe not. Either way, I'm happy to see Elizabeth getting a big push.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,060 posts)Biden?
While at this stage it is still too early, I could see some Biden supporters going to Warren though.
I think the forthcoming debates will be more meaningful, and it will be interesting if they motivate those undecided Democrats to take a more definitive stand toward a candidate preference
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Because some Sanders supporters loathe Warren since she is the clear rival to him. They would support Biden over her for spite.
Let's not forget a number of Sanders supporters who didnt support Hillary either.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,060 posts)their critical thinking skills, and that goes for those who refused to support Hillary in the general election
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
boomer_wv
(673 posts)They handed Trump the White House.
Link to tweet
?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E900164807961305088&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2Fpolicy-and-politics%2F2017%2F8%2F24%2F16194086%2Fbernie-trump-voters-study
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(48,890 posts)And Warren's slight edge in the current poll is from independents, not registered Democrats.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,060 posts)Warren. I also sense that Warren is getting some votes from Harris supporters.
The wild card, and what I think will determine our nominee. will be the undecided Democrats, and it is anyone's guess where they will break, though I will add I believe they comprise of at least 30% of Democrats from the numbers I have seen
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,691 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,060 posts)Democratic voters that determine our nominee.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Last months Quinnipiac poll had Sanders at 14% compared to this month when he is at 16%.
So, at least according to this major poll, Warren's rise is not coming at Sanders' expense so far.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,060 posts)night or one poll, the trend has been moving that way for sometime
He is not able to move outside his base, and is losing support from that base
Bidens numbers have essentially remained stagnant
that +2% is not a trend, and looking at all the polls he has been trending down for sometime
Just adding the numbers from Warren and Sanders the total has been pretty constant, and still is, except, those numbers increased for Warren and have decreased for Sanders
That is the control
These state polls also indicate it
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287292871
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)will combine forces to take the nomination... their brand of bold aggressive progressivism EASILY defeats Joe's timid moderate incrementalism. The writing's on the wall.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,060 posts)merging of the votes of the two camps.
Of course this only speculation, but I base it on adding the previous poll numbers from Warren and Sanders and the total have remained fairly constant, slightly surpassing Biden's count. I also suspect that some of the Harris loss has probably gone to Warren, but that is just a guess.
Because of the number of undecided Democratic voters I think that is the wild card, and the debates will probably change that dynamic with the undecided voters, along with other Democratic nominees dropping out
We will see
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,060 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LeftTurn3623
(628 posts)kind of hurts that Biden is the only one that can beat Trump theory.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,060 posts)to play in a Democratic primary?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
blm
(113,005 posts)Moderates and independents in the general election, a claim that has been posted many times as a reason why we should NOT support Warren in the primary. I think this developing story of an increase among independents supporting Warrens candidacy deserves attention.
I, personally, am cautious about early polls, but, I understand why some here are cheering these current results after months of being told that their candidate wont get the votes of moderates and independents in the general election.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Yoopy
(124 posts)So that's irrelevant.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Yoopy
(124 posts)This contributed to her taking the lead.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
blm
(113,005 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,060 posts)primaries, unless some are speculating these independents will register as Democrats to vote in the Democratic primary
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,426 posts)That seems higher than Quinnipiac's usual (and they're generally a solid polling organization), so it'll be interesting to see the next couple.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Politicub
(12,165 posts)But I don't think Biden is losing share as much as these polls would lead one to believe. They don't factor his strong remarks about the impeachment inquiry from yesterday, and I'm not sure if they even take into account dems circling the wagons around Biden when Trump tried to drag him through the mud about Ukraine.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DrFunkenstein
(8,745 posts)You're no longer in front?
I'm surprised that Biden has yet to come up with a defining message other than "I'm With Him."
Meaning Obama, of course.
Meanwhile, Warren has a strong central message of economic populism, a biography that ties directly to it (conveyed with a surprising personal touch), and incredible discipline over that message - all while avoiding any criticism of other Dems.
It is no wonder that she is starting to inch ahead. The only question is how do Dems react to their neighbors saying it's ok to get behind Liz?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided