Biden nosedives in early-state polls

[brooklynite]

Politico

Joe Biden’s poll numbers are crumbling in the early nominating states that matter most.

Once the dominant front-runner in the Democratic primary, Biden is now marginally trailing Elizabeth Warren in the first caucus state of Iowa and the first primary state of New Hampshire. His South Carolina firewall shows signs of cracking and he's losing his once-overwhelming lead in Florida, according to a raft of recent polling.

Biden’s descent has been months in the making, the result of continuous fire from progressives, questions about his age and stamina, a drumbeat of negative coverage over lackluster debate performances and frequent misstatements, according to pollsters and party insiders. They also point to a campaign message that at times over-emphasized attacking President Trump and his claim to be the “most electable” Democrat in the field.

But perhaps the biggest factor has been the rise of Warren, the Massachusetts senator who has served up a steady diet of grassroots outreach and in-depth policy proposals that have endeared her to progressives.

[democratisphere]

1. Just keep it up.

drumpf will be gone before the elections and be certain the rethuglicons will roll out new candidates that will be formidable Presidential competitors. Idiotic misogynists haven't stop voting! No one is surging in the polls except in the minds and speak of the MSM with an agenda.

[BeyondGeography]

8. "No one is surging in the polls."

[TwilightZone]

2. That SC poll looks rather suspect. 54% undecideds?

Undecideds up 22% (to 54%) from the prior poll? Yeah, I don't see that happening.

The article Caputo links to to justify his claim about the SC firewall cracking says nothing of the sort. It's an article from a couple of weeks ago talking about how Biden needs to win SC. It says nothing about current polls, etc.

[Thekaspervote]

3. Thx for the breakdown.... politico... the MSM of the Internet...stir stir stir

[TwilightZone]

4. "stir stir stir" -- Agreed.

Politico has always been a bit like that, but they seem to be ramping it up lately, especially Caputo, and not just with Biden.

[DeminPennswoods]

5. JMHO, but Biden's campaign has mostly

been run on an "inevitabile and electable" strategy based on Biden's substantial lead in the early polls. Voters have now had chances to see all the candidates on the debate stage and on the ground. I think the question in voters' minds is that Biden's a good guy, but is he the right guy?.

In attacking Biden, Trump has hit the one area where Biden is really vulnerable, which is Hunter. Hunter tried hard to get ahead of this by agreeing to a feature interview in The New Yorker back in July. Unfortunately Hunter's life and relationship with his dad is complicated making him an easier target for characature in the political arena. It's surely possible attacks on Hunter could backfire and make Biden a more sympathetic figure given he is Biden's only surviving child. Voters know these attacks will only continue and escalate in the coming months. That will be part of their calculation when selecting a candidate. Voters will really have to think whether Trump/Rs can do to Biden what they did to Hillary by making everything about Hunter and his business dealings. If they do, will that discourage Dem turnout in 2020?

[Thekaspervote]

7. The repukes will vilify regardless of who the eventual nominee is

[George II]

6. I don't know what polls that guy is looking at, but the real polls don't show any "nosediving".

[dsc]

9. There a whole host of things wrong with this article and the polls that it is discussing

First, the person doing the polling is a Republican doing the polling on behalf of unknown people. That is hard to trust.
Second, Tyson's polls are being compared to polls Tyson didn't conduct. You can't compare polls by different outfits to each other since the way the polls were conducted might well be different (see point 1).
Third, with the exception of one poll all of the polls in this article are by this Tyson guy who all we know about is he is GOP and working for persons unknown.
Fourth in SC he under polled blacks and over polled whites. Democrats made up 61% of the primary vote in 2016 they only polled 52% black.

This is a primary example of why it is that reporters, especially political ones, should take math courses before they get jobs. Any reasonably decent math student would know this.

Now all of the above said, it is still possible the thesis is correct that Biden is losing support in SC but I highly doubt it. This is journalistic malpractice, which is to be expected from Tiger Beat on the Potomac.

[Thekaspervote]

10. Thx for the breakdown!! Good to know. I had not seen any big changes in the SC polling

[zackymilly]

12. Let's go, Liz!