Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBiden's AVERAGE lead down to +7.6, lowest for the primary season
According to RCP POLLS tracker of AVERAGE major poll results, Joe Biden's is now down to a single digit lead of +7.6 over nearest rival Elizabeth Warren.
This is the smallest AVERAGE lead from the major polls to date in the primary contest.
Biden's AVERAGE support is currently at 29%, which is lower than the 29.3% he had on April 25th, the date he announced his campaign.
Over the last 2 months, Biden's support has been fluctuating in the 26-30% range.
Warren's AVERAGE support has broken the 20% level for the first time, and now stands at 21.4%.
Sanders' support stays relatively flat in the 16-17% range over the last 6-7 weeks.
See all the polls and the Trend line tracker for yourself at RCP POLLS:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
As I always say, the polls are what the polls are.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Lulu KC
(2,560 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
empedocles
(15,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HeartlandProgressive
(294 posts)Interesting at this point in the race.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TidalWave46
(2,061 posts)He did when he announced. I'm glad that it looks like Warren will be the one challenging him. Still some time left. I'm not counting out a Buttigieg or Harris surge.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)His trendline looks something like a rollercoaster ride, with a sharp initial climb, then downswings and upswings that eventually levels off in the 26-30% range.
Biden's floor seems to be at about 26%, he's hit that a few times now, but has not dropped lower yet.
Chart shows it best, I think:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to bluewater (Original post)
Post removed
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jcgoldie
(11,612 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MineralMan
(146,254 posts)Lots of ways to say things, aren't there?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,294 posts)The narrative on Biden the OP has attempted to craft here has taken a real beating the last couple weeks. When that happens the efforts to parse numbers usually ramps up as we have seen in this OP.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MineralMan
(146,254 posts)Every state participates in the general election. Every state matters. I want the strongest possible candidate in each and every state. That's what I want.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,872 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Attempting to ignore how the primary race is tightening is just silly.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,294 posts)Were all welcome to our narratives here.
And as I always say, the narratives are what the narratives are.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to BannonsLiver (Reply #19)
Post removed
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Lot's of ways to say things, aren't there?
The polls are what the polls are.
People can see the trend in the polls for themselves at RCP POLLS tracker:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,254 posts)that shows Biden's lead. It's been green down there all along. Sometimes there's more green than others, but it's always green. I watch the polls, too.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)As recently as September 1st Biden's lead was 14.2%, today it's 7.6%.
The solid green graphic at the bottom of the chart clearly shows the downward trend of Biden's lead.
Anyone can see that for themselves at RCP POllS at the bottom of the chart, mouse over that to see the exact numbers for each date:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
The primary race is obviously tightening.
facts are stubborn things
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Skya Rhen
(2,701 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HeartlandProgressive
(294 posts)didn't you post 4 polls today?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Skya Rhen
(2,701 posts)position.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Those are always high for Biden.
but, remember, the polls are what the polls are.
You cannot cherry pick which polls you want to pay attention to.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden