Current RCP Averages--National And Early States

[LincolnRossiter]

National: Biden +7.3
Iowa: Warren +2.7
NH: Biden +3.0
Nevada: Biden +7.3
SC: Biden +24.6

Warren's made big moves over the summer. But the reports of Biden's demise are greatly exaggerated.

[highplainsdem]

1. Thanks! K&R!

[NurseJackie]

2. The only mystery now is who Biden's VP choice will be?

Maybe it will be Bernie. (Kidding!)

I think it will be someone younger who'll be ready to take the reins when Biden rides off into the sunset.

Kamala? Pete?

[LincolnRossiter]

3. I don't think anyone should be measuring the drapes yet. I expect it to be a competitive contest

that goes beyond Super Tuesday. Just trying to slow down "the narrative" a bit.

[NurseJackie]

4. Yes... It's still competitive in many regards...

... but it's clear to me that BS will not be on our party's ticket in any shape or form. He won't be at the top, nor will he be offered the VP slot (as if he'd even accept it, eh?)

[Tiggeroshii]

5. For a guy leading by more than 20 nationally last month

I dont think this is good news.

[LincolnRossiter]

6. Biden was leading by an average of about 11 last month.

Where'd you get 20?

[Tiggeroshii]

7. Sorry that was a couple months ago now.

He has been steadily declining

[LincolnRossiter]

8. His average has gone from about 33 to about 28. He hasn't had some precipitice decline. It's more

that Warren's been gaining--seemingly more at the expense of Harris and the other lower-tier candidates and maybe Bernie. But Bernie's numbers aren't really that much lower either. Maybe she's just steadily been picking up undecideds.

[Tiggeroshii]

9. His average lead* has gone from the 20s from April till end of June to the single digits now.

[LincolnRossiter]

10. Go back and re-read my post. If you still don't understand what I was conveying, I'll explain it.

And yes there is a difference. And yes it matters in a primary/election.

[Tiggeroshii]

12. Warren continuing to increase at the expense of any candidate

Is bad news for biden. 25 or 30 percentis not much whenthis comes down to what may inevitably be a two personrace between biden or warren... She is gaining suppirt. He is not.

[LincolnRossiter]

17. Joe'll be fine. He's weathered a tough couple of months in the press.

Queen Elizabeth hasn’t had it so hard.

[Green Line]

18. This

[Tiggeroshii]

19. He has a pretty low ceilng all things considered

But time will tell more than anything else.

[LincolnRossiter]

20. And yet he leads Warren.

You know she didn't just enter the national consciousness, right? She's been in this particular race longer than he has.

What's the problem with her ceiling? Call me when she and her bold proposals break 35%.

[Tiggeroshii]

21. Bookmarking

[Thekaspervote]

13. Even at that, everyone expected the polls to tighten

[Tiggeroshii]

15. Which they have

[peggysue2]

11. This appears to be setting up as . . .

a head-to-head match between Biden and Warren. I back Joe Biden as our best bet to beat Trump in 2020, a must-do, and as the best candidate to repair the massive damage Trump has wreaked on the country. Trump knows that, too, which is why we're seeing the smear machine gearing up.

The numbers are tightening but Joe Biden still has the strongest hand.

[jcgoldie]

14. The trendlines look great for Warren

Biden has either lost over 10% or remained static over the entire summer depending on how far back you set your window. At one time he peaked at over 40%. Meanwhile Liz has quadrupled her numbers.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[Otto Lidenbrock]

16. Maybe Liz will start getting more media scrutiny then now its neck and neck

First of all I've praised her campaign on here as the best operation. But she's also benefitted from kind media. No democrat is going to bring up the DNA thing, but on policy there are some valid questions. Colbert of all people pressed her harder than the political reporters.

[aikoaiko]

22. Its all about the Joe-mentum.