270toWin Democratic Presidential Contest Projections

[LincolnRossiter]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/

I'm not as familiar with this site, so don't take my posting this as an endorsement, but it has a lot more functionality than RCP, and 538 hasn't really kicked all of its features into gear yet.

One cool feature is that it does state-by-state delegate projections based upon current average polling. It also allows you to compare any poll to the one that immediately preceded it (by the same pollster). It's seems to have some polls that RCP doesn't and excludes some that RCP does. Not sure how the selection process works for either site. 538 has all the polls (seemingly) but doesn't do averages or delegate projections. I think they'll add those features as we get closer.

[Demsrule86]

1. This is where I get the maps I post..it is interactive.

I don't think they are based on polling just various possibilities.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. Those numbers are brutal except for 3 people.

[LincolnRossiter]

3. Barring some serious meltdown it really is a three-candidate race. I'd even argue that Bernie's

probably not actually that viable. But he has numbers, organization, and money, so he has enough to stay relevant. Of the rest, Buttigieg and Harris also have money and strong organizations, so they can probably make it to Super Tuesday. I thought Booker and Beto were right there with them, but no longer do. Tough to pigeonhole Yang, but I think he's just a novelty.

The rest, meh.

[DrFunkenstein]

4. It Won't Be Worth Much Until Voters Tune In

Part of the appeal of the early states is that they are actively paying attention to the candidates.