New Raycroft Research National Poll

[liskddksil]

Link to tweet

[crazytown]

1. Same online shyte as HarrisX & Morning Consult

dirt cheap polling.

[liskddksil]

3. I work in survey research and everything is moving online

2020 is going to put a lot of these new methods to the test, but don't count out because of unexpected results. Large sample size is a good sign as well.

[crazytown]

5. The question as I see it, is whether there is something like an interview,

which requires the respondents attention, or something less, the worst being a Morning Consult's style email like form.

[Celerity]

4. not all online polls are shite, far from it

Good ones have a very controlled group, NOT a random poll where anyone could just click on something as many times as they want. I see so many people react (not saying you are in this case) in such a way that as soon as 'online' is mentioned they have visions of all the dodgy 'have-a-go', 'vote as often as you can clear your cache' (if even that is needed, lol) push-pull 'polls' like Drudge and other sites (of all sorts of ideological bents) do.

Multiple well rated, reputable polls are either all, or partially online.












I do agree with you that HarrisX and Morning Consult are not the best, and they have smaller, locked on repeatedly sampled panels (thus little change week over week) and also, especially HarrisX, tend to have a mod/con bias.

[crazytown]

6. I'll admit, there some shoot the messenger in this case.

If I have to admit that tRumps off the wall lie campaign against Biden, has badly damaged his candidacy, at this time, it will take more than one online poll to do it.

[Celerity]

9. I was not arguing that this was necessarily a good poll, hell I hope it is not, lol (it has Pete at

half or so of where he was been). I only was trying to say that not all online polls are a priori shite simply because they are online polls.

[crazytown]

11. Thanks.

Understood.

[Celerity]

13. +1

[crazytown]

8. Yesterday HarrisX reported that Trump's approval had climbed to 2019 high

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-impeachment-1463017

[Celerity]

12. HarrisX and Morning Consult are two of my least favourite regularly posted polls, as I stated in

another reply.

HarrisX especially.

[ritapria]

2. Those are stronger results for Yang and O'Rourke than I've seen for quite a while

Biden is being unfairly damaged by all the Bullshit emanating from Trump's filthy mouth ….Warren may be taking over this race ….. This is their first poll of the cycle so they aren't going back to the same people over and over again ...Right ?

[Yoopy]

7. Strange methodology from never-heard-of pollster

Everyone makes polls these days

[a kennedy]

10. Never heard of them ......

[DownriverDem]

14. Sad

Biden is gas lighted. See how it works.

[left-of-center2012]

15. I don't believe it to be accurate

"Yang: 6.2% --- O'Rourke: 6.1%"

Wednesday, October 2
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Monmouth Poll

Yang 2
O'Rourke 1

[boomer_wv]

16. Two things....

Two things that raise my eyebrows here. One is that they are asking people to sign up and be emailed the survey, and the 2nd is that they aren't weighting the results. That suggests to me that the results are likely biased toward whoever the group most likely to sign up for their email list.

This firm is also....completely unknown. They claim to have been around since 2017, but their Twitter account is only a couple months old and have less than 40 followers. Kind of strange for a firm that claims to have a list of several thousand people willing to participate in its poll.

I'm going to remain skeptical on these guys, especially until I see some established firms posting similar numbers.