What are the odds that Buttigieg can exceed expectations in IA/NH...?

[bluewater]

Link to tweet

[ritapria]

1. He is starting make his move in Iowa

His ad buys appear to be working ...CBS/YouGuv has him up to 14%....He has the advantage of being a fellow Midwesterner …. He is drawing Big Crowds in Iowa - aa good potential leading indicator that he has a shot …..Iowans don't pay attention to national polls showing him at 5% …..They do their own thing ….

[bluewater]

2. very true

Pete has a well financed campaign and is building a strong ground game in both Iowa and NH.

He's definitely is in the mix in my opinion.

[RLG]

3. Iowa and NH are predominately white states where he should do well.

His problem will be the states with high minority populations like South Carolina and Nevada.

[customerserviceguy]

5. And Joe Biden wins them

but it will not be enough for a first ballot victory for Joe.

While I like Pete Buttigieg very much, and will happily vote for him in the SC primary if he's more viable than Joe Biden, I'm underwhelmed by how far he's come at this point, given the bucketloads of money that he's been able to raise so far.

Hopefully, he will do more than hold his own in the next few debates, as he has done in the previous three, and will surge as we approach actual voting. I know Sen. Warren has the momentum right now, but as we all know, that can change.

[DrFunkenstein]

4. Exceeding Expectations: Yes

Winning: Well, you never know, but it's some pretty long odds.

A good showing is much more likely to increase his VP chances, and position him well as a future star of the Party.

[customerserviceguy]

6. He only gets a shot at VP

if Sen. Harris wins the nomination. Any male nominee needs a female VP, and any white nominee needs a person of color as a VP. Otherwise, we get a repeat of 2016.