Has Elizabeth Warren broken the electability ceiling?

[brooklynite]

Washington Post

One of the early truisms of the 2020 Democratic nominating contest was that Democrats wanted nothing more than to beat President Trump. There’s typically a connection between overall support in a primary and the perception that a candidate has the best chance of winning in the general election, but this year that seemed to be amplified: If you care only about winning in 2020, how could you not support the candidate who seemed to have the best chance of winning?

That assumption was always iffy. That electability and support go hand-in-hand means that, as support for a candidate drops, so does the perception that the candidate can win the general election. The correlation between the two, in other words, means that electability is often just a trailing indicator of primary support anyway.

For former vice president Joe Biden, this was always a looming iceberg. If voters stopped thinking he was the best candidate to beat Trump next year — which they consistently seemed to think — what would happen to his support? Or, conversely (and probably more accurately): If voters stopped supporting him, what would happen to perceptions of his electability?

We’re starting to get an answer to the second question.

[bluewater]

1. "electability is often just a trailing indicator of primary support anyway"

So true.

[pattyloutwo]

2. Obama wasn't electable either

People like to surprise and prove pundits wrong. The moment is right for Americans to show the world our good side and elect someone honest who has great integrity.

That was an interesting article, thanks.

[corbettkroehler]

4. You're Right And That's Why Iowa Remains The Bellweather

Hawkeye voters have a point when they mention that their demographics mirror about half of the country.

[Thekaspervote]

7. IA is rural, very white and mostly republican... you think that's a bellwether for half the nation?

Seriously?

[emmaverybo]

11. It isn't, but supporters will take it as does the media.

[corbettkroehler]

15. "Half The Electorate" Might Be More Closer

And, yes, when we look at the 2016 general election results, rural, white and Republican would be an accurate description.

[DrFunkenstein]

5. They Warn Biden's 2020 May Look Like Clinton 2008

I doubt we are going to see a massive turn around in SC, but people around here make way too much about history repeating in exactly the same way.

Biden will probably manage to win SC, but even still Warren already has been projected to sweep up the early states in terms of delegates.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-democratic-polls-elizabeth-warren-extends-lead-across-early-states-new-hampshire-draws-even-with-biden-in-iowa/

Given that Biden is so well known, you have to wonder what it will take for him to change the minds of the 70% not behind him currently. That case is much more easily made for Warren as she gains in the polls and looks increasingly viable.

[emmaverybo]

9. But he was Obama and the public had not met him yet.

[corbettkroehler]

3. For The Sake Of The Nation, I Hope That She Has - Gender Discrimination Is Balderdash

I long for a political system in which we judge candidates based on their qualifications, period. I have an opinion about all of the contenders for the democratic nomination. Gender is not a metric I ever employ. In fact, I go out of my way to avoid it.

[DrFunkenstein]

6. A New Fox Poll Has Her Beating Trump By 10 Points

That goes a long way with voters looking for someone who can win. Warren leads in enthusiasm and favorability over Biden, so if electability is taken out of the calculus she is much more likely to emerge as the nominee. And a popular one at that.

https://www.politicususa.com/2019/10/11/impeachment-destroying-trump-biden-warren-double-digits.html

[emmaverybo]

10. The media makes much of the enthusiasm gap. But nothing of the AA electorate gap. She has not

been vetted. We will know how electable she is when Trump’s machine goes to work on her. Harris
Hill poll has Biden way in the lead. And he’s leading soundly in states that count for an EC win.

[ritapria]

13. Just Released Morning Consult Poll Has Biden still Way Ahead

Biden 32% Warren 21% Sanders 19% The polls showing Warren ahead get all the media attention ...So much for Objectivity

[emmaverybo]

14. None whatsoever. Harris-Hill shows Warren behind both Sanders and Biden,who has a 16 point lead over

her, yet headline advertising it was that Warren had hit a record high in her numbers.

[Funtatlaguy]

12. Some people won't tell pollsters the truth.

They lie to pollsters but there are some people who will never vote for a woman, black, brown, or gay person. I know many closet bigots like that. Their bigotry only comes out when they think they are around like minded bigots 🤫

[Hortensis]

16. The Republicans/Russia are holding off most attacks on her,

by FAR most attacks (just little reminders that their base should fear her as an extremist threat to Christianity, democracy, and "the American way" ), in hopes that she'll be the nominee. And of course at the same time doing their best to promote her to Democrats and the far left.

Meanwhile, the RW swiftboating machine is busy designing and refining scandals to roll out if she becomes the nominee. Also Biden. Russia's helping and China's expected to get in.

Whoever we nominate will be presented to the nation as the major threat to America's survival all this political chaos has been bringing us to.

The most electable candidate will be the one fewer millions will be suckered into believing and voting against and/or turning off and staying home.

And, of course, she's a woman. There's that. America's great, long-time familiarity with Hillary was her biggest asset against the blizzard of lies, but her great liability was her gender.

In spite of Senator Warren's current surge, I'm guessing it won't continue to the nomination. Back in the 1930s many anxious people looked to the extremes, socialism, fascism, dictatorship, for rescue, all considered respectable, valid options by their factions. But Democrats, and then America, elected "establishment" Democrat FDR to restore stability. In this time of great trouble, I believe Warren's today's version of looking for rescue. And Sanders of course.