CNN's Harry Enten: Endorsements & polling more predictive of primary outcomes than money

[highplainsdem]

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Biden's unlikely to lose because of a lack of money. Yea, he might run out of money, but that would be after losing IA/NH/NV and likely SC... which means he'd probably be done anyway. (1/?)


Like when campaigns run out of dough during the primaries, their chances of winning the nomination are almost always already minimal. Often, that's how campaigns died. You lose, you run out of dough, and you drop out... (2/?)


Sanders 2016 was very different than that... He HAD the dough and so could keep going and going... It was pretty darn clear in early March 2016 that Clinton was going to the nominee... but it dragged on... That's actually really unusual if you look back...


Money is important to build campaign infrastructure, ads, etc... but in nominations, historically speaking, stuff like endorsements and polling tend to be more predictive of outcomes... Even at this early juncture...

[highplainsdem]

1. kick

[Scurrilous]

2. ...

[Cha]

3. Thank you for this from Harry Enten,

Not quite the doom and gloom as some are predicting.

[Modern Fictions]

4. Super Tuesday is Super Expensive

(His less than $9 million funds) are the latest sign that Mr. Biden, who relies mainly on large donors, is struggling to compete with the small-donor-funded campaigns of Ms. Warren, Mr. Sanders and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., who entered October with two and half times as much cash as Mr. Biden.

“It’ll be a telling moment for Biden,” said Jennifer Palmieri, who served as communications director for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. “His supporters will see he does not have enough money, and either that will prompt a bunch of money to come in in the fourth quarter, or he’s going to be in very rough shape.”

“Because you can’t run a serious primary campaign on $9 million,” she added.
...
Tad Devine, a veteran Democratic strategist who advised Mr. Sanders’s 2016 campaign but is not working for anyone in the 2020 race, said the lack of cash would limit Mr. Biden’s political options. He pointed to the variety of areas where campaigns might want to invest money: airing television ads, deploying staff on the ground, staging splashy but expensive events and running a robust digital program.

“Your strategic options are limited,” Mr. Devine said, adding that the options available to Mr. Biden’s better-funded rivals were “much bigger.”

“He’s going to have to place the right bet,” Mr. Devine said. “It’s going to have to be a winner. It’s almost like you’re playing roulette, and one guy gets five numbers and the other guy gets one number. Who’s going to win?”

Over the summer, Mr. Biden had already begun to slash his digital spending budget, which was also clear in the new fillings. He spent about $1 million in the first half of the quarter and about $311,000 in the second half, records show.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/16/us/politics/democratic-fundraising-joe-biden.html