Why Warren is considered a front runner

[bluewater]

Warren's performance in three important metrics makes her one of the front runners, possibly the front runner, in the Democratic Primary race:


1. Warren leads in the CBS News Early States Delegate Projections

"But what about South Carolina and other Southern states where Biden is so strong?"

Well, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee,and Arkansas ARE included in the CBS NEWS Early states projection.

2. Warren leads in one Polling Aggregate Tracking model and is second in the other.

The Economist's Aggregate model has Warren +3 over Biden
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

The RCP POLLS Aggregate model has Biden +5.8 over Warren
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Which aggregate tracker is correct? We'll have to wait for actual voting to know, but both are good tools to examine the primary polling results overall and not fixate on any single poll.


3. Warren Had Very strong 3rd Quarter Fund Raising.



OK, but how much cash on hand does Warren and the other candidates have going into the important 4th Quarter push to Super Tuesday?

Comparing Cash On Hand:

Biden cash on hand sum of $8.9 million is so low that it’s almost four times lower than the $33.7 million banked by Sanders, nearly three times lower than Warren’s $25.7 million war chest and more than twice as small as Pete Buttigieg’s $23.3 million.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/16/biden-fundraising-2020-049062

[True Dough]

1. Reasonable arguments

Her rise is indisputable. Her perch at the top is debatable, but she has become a major force, no doubt about it.

[qazplm135]

5. I mean no it's not debatable

She's at worst tied with Biden.

She's not the sole frontrunner for sure, but she's co-frontrunner definitely.

[Media3]

11. ACTUALLY

Actually,
no she is the front runner. Check CNN sis

[qazplm135]

12. I'm not a sis

and it's debatable whether she is the sole front runner, but not whether she is a front runner.

[Thekaspervote]

14. No, she isn't and I'm not sis either RCP Biden 29.2% Warren 23.4% latest poll averages

[bluewater]

17. "RCP has a dirty secret! It's poll aggregate now falls under scrutiny"

"RCP has a dirty secret! It's poll aggregate now falls under scrutiny"

Hmmm... that is what you posted previously about RCP, along with this comment:

"RealClearPolitics has carefully cultivated a non-partisan image—while in the shadows its parent company pushes images of killer Clintons and a freedom-loving Kremlin.

More at the link... if you want

https://www.thedailybeast.com/realclear-media-has-a-secret-facebook-page-filled-with-far-right-memes "

Here's the link to THAT post:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=308362

So, is the seriousness of RCP's parent company pushing "images of killer Clintons and a freedom-loving Kremlin" a real issue or not?




In any case, there is always The Economist's Polling Aggregate model that is not involved in that controversy:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

Warren is +3 over Biden in that model.

[ritapria]

31. Reuters - Ipsos Nationa Poll (B+) Results Released Tonight (Post debate Poll)

Biden 21% ( +3) Sanders 16%( +1) Warren 15% (+1) Buttigieg 5% Harris 3% O'Rourke 3%

[TwilightZone]

21. sis?

Enjoy your stay.

[sheshe2]

35. sis?

Your first post on DU. Hmm.

[True Dough]

34. Try telling Reuters/Ipsos that

Biden expands edge in U.S. Democratic nomination race: Reuters/Ipsos poll

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-democrats-poll/biden-expands-edge-in-us-democratic-nomination-race-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1WX2O4

[tblue37]

2. K&R & thanks. nt

[HeartlandProgressive]

3. This was well presented and persuasive.

nice graphics too.

[cwydro]

4. Rec.

[George II]

6. I don't know where those numbers for delegates come from. Five of the early states....

....don't even have any polls available.

But, based on RCP averages for the other states, Biden would get 617 delegates, Warren 370 delegates, and Sanders 281 (rounded) No one else hits the magic 15% level to receive delegates (but some or all states do award delegates by district, so they may be above 15% in a district or two)

[Thekaspervote]

15. Magic beads and fairy dust when all else fails. Didn't see you had already posted RCP numbers

You definitely laid it out better, so thx.

This is the second time this week that this map has been posted. Wasn’t right the first time either

[iscooterliberally]

7. She might not have a plan for everything, but then who does?

She certainly has the most plans of any candidate. I really think she's the best presidential candidate I have seen in my life. I really hope she wins!

[HeartlandProgressive]

10. There are almost 4 months before voting, that's time for more plans

I expect that the Medicare for All plan will be concentrated on before that, and probably before the next debate.

It will be interesting to see that roll out, especially in regards to details about cost and how to pay for it.

Once that is settled, she looks good to go all the way!

[iscooterliberally]

13. I don't doubt that for a second.

I can't wait to see it. I think Warren is probably one of the smartest people in our country right now. She'll definitely figure it out in detail. She gives me a lot of hope for the future.

[Bradshaw3]

8. Solid data

Well-presented.

[Gothmog]

16. Without significant African American voter support, Warren will not be the nominee

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

18. Warren gets 'dramatic shift' in support from black voters

One element of Elizabeth Warren’s surge in the polls is likely to strike fear in her top Democratic rivals — her rising support among African Americans.

After struggling to win over black voters in the early stages of the primary, the Massachusetts senator appears to be gaining ground with a demographic that will play a pivotal role in determining the nomination.

A Quinnipiac University national poll last week showed Warren winning 19 percent of the African American vote — a 9-point jump over the poll’s August results. In the latest Morning Consult poll, released Wednesday, she’s up by 5 percentage points with black voters since August.
Story Continued Below

Those advances have played a role in her surging overall numbers, which have seen Warren expand her lead over the African American candidates in the primary — Sens. Kamala Harris and Cory Booker — and even overtake Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders in some state and national polls.

“It’s certainly a dramatic shift that had to be noticed by the Biden campaign — and also Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg,” said Tim Malloy, Qunnipiac’s polling analyst. “Other [candidates] aren’t moving. And if they are, it’s in the wrong direction.”
Biden has long commanded an outsized portion of black voters, many of whom look favorably upon his service as vice president to President Barack Obama. In both the Quinnipiac and Morning Consult polls, Biden holds 40 percent of their support.

Warren, however, has faced doubts about her appeal to the party’s most loyal constituency. But months of outreach and targeted policy proposals appear to have made a mark.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/02/elizabeth-warren-black-voters-support-2020-016649

Biden does have the lion share of support from African American voters, but that has been changing as per this article and continues to change. Time will tell how much support both Biden and Warren actual receive once voting starts.

[Gothmog]

19. And yet this shift does not show up in South Carolina

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

20. And South Carolina is included in the CBS NEWS Early States Tracker, where Warren leads

The reason why is Black voters make up 19% of the Democratic base over all, but are expected to make up 60% of the SC primary voters, making SC something of an outlier.

Looking at a broader selection of states we see that the CBS NEWS Early state tracker includes SC, NC, Alabama, Tennessee, and Arkansas -- all states with considerable numbers of African American voters, and Warren leads nationally in projected delegates over all.

That's in part due to the fact Warren leads Biden 30% to 20% among white Democratic voters, who make up ~60% of the Democratic base. That support added to her support from African American, Latino, and other voter groups has her ahead.

As I said, support of African American voters is very important and it will be interesting to see how that support is distributed once voting actually starts.

[Gothmog]

22. If Warren is the nominee, then Texas will not be a battleground state

I and a number of real hardcore Democrats have been working hard to turn Texas blue. Right now, Texas will be a battleground state for the Presidential race if we nominate Biden or another moderate. In 2018, we flipped two Congressional seats from red to blue (Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred). Colin and Lizzie are being targeted by the GOP and we will have to work hard to defend these seats. I have already donated to Colin and will be donating to Lizzie

In addition the DCCC and the Texas state party have identified 6 additional congressional seats that could be flipped. I have donated to Sri Preston Kulkarni, Kim Olson and Wendy Davis. In addition, Texas Democrats picked up 12 seats in the Texas state house in 2018 and we need to flip 9 seats in the Texas state house to control the Texas house and the 2021 redistricting session.

If Warren is the nominee, I am convinced that Texas will not be a battleground state and it is clear that we will have trouble flipping any seats and may lose Lizzie's and Colin's seats. I doubt that we will be able to flip the Texas state house and will see some horrible redistricting.

[bluewater]

23. Good luck to you and your preferred candidate.

Fortunately, there are many paths to a Democratic victory in 2020.

There are many congressional races in many states and I am very hopeful that the enthusiasm that has been shown for Elizabeth Warren will translated not only into her defeating Trump, but to getting other Democrats elected as well.

I don't think arguments such as "only my candidate can defeat Trump" or "only my candidate will have the coattails we need" are very productive.

In fact, I think those arguments are defeatist and something of a "back of the hand" to other candidates and their supporters.

Time will tell who is right, but I wish the best of luck to you and your efforts to get your preferred candidate and Democrats in Texas elected.

Remember, please VOTE BLUE, NO MATTER WHO in 2020!

Thank you for the discussion.

[Gothmog]

26. I will vote for the Democratic nominee no matter what

I would hate to see all of the hard work being done to turn Texas blue go to waste if Warren is the nominee. Warren would destroy down ballot candidates in Texas and a number of other states. The DCCC has offices open and is targeting 6 seats in Texas and will be defending Lizzie's and Colin's seats.

After picking up 12 seats in the Texas House last cycle (this was unexpected), I would love to flip nine more seats and be able to control redistricting. This is from a former Texas election law attorney who is now at the Brennan Center

Link to tweet

[Thekaspervote]

32. Biden continues to grow his support with the AA voters. 61% ..impressive

Yes, Warren has “surged” in the polls among AA voters... going from 2% to 14%. Won’t ever work

[TwilightZone]

24. Cherry-picking isn't a terribly compelling argument.

She's a front-runner. She isn't *the* front-runner.

She's ahead in some polls and behind in others. She's ahead of Biden in one aggregate and behind in the other. As far as the data is concerned, they're essentially co-front-runners at this time.

Your assertion that she must be doing well in SC and other Southern states because she's ahead in the totals displays a fundamental misunderstanding of what's being presented.

[bluewater]

25. "Warren's performance in three important metrics makes her one of the front runners..."

Did you miss the first line of the OP?

Warren's performance in three important metrics makes her one of the front runners, possibly the front runner, in the Democratic Primary race:

Also, I never asserted Warren was ahead in SC, that's either a mistake on your part or a strawman argument.

In fact, I pointed out that despite the inclusion of several southern states with large amounts of African American voters who strongly support Biden, Warren was still able to garner enough support from African American, Latino, Asian, white and other voter groups in total to lead nationally.



Have a nice evening.

[Thekaspervote]

29. This .. SC being the bellwether for the AA voting block Biden 43% EW 18%

Doesn’t matter how hard it’s spun EW does not poll well with AA voters. No dem has ever won with this most important voting block

She does not poll well in her own state either. Those that know her best aren’t supporting her having yet to lead in any poll taken in her own state.

Joe Biden polls extremely well in his ohome state of Delaware

[Gothmog]

27. Warren is not doing well on endorsements

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Thekaspervote]

30. Might it say something about EW not landing endorsements in her own state?

Those that know her best?

[Gothmog]

33. Many Democrats do not want Warren to be on the top of ticket

Warren would kill down ballot candidates in Texas and a number of other states including states that the Democrats need to win. I think that Texas will be a battleground state if Warren is not on the top of the ticket.

[Thekaspervote]

28. Sanders stomps Clinton in fund raising 2016. So we all know how that turned out

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-fundraising-222240

More at the link if you want.... or not

[comradebillyboy]

36. As things stand right now Biden needs to up his game or

Warren will win the nomination.

[BannonsLiver]

37. Opinions are what they are.

I’m suddenly reminded of a part of the human anatomy and how everyone has one.