Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(49,041 posts) Mon Oct 21, 2019, 10:29 AM Oct 2019

New Iowa Suffolk poll: Undecideds up nearly 40% since June. 63% of Decideds could change.

New poll:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/10/21/iowa-caucuses-pete-buttigieg-elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-top-poll/4025797002/

The previous one, taken just after the first debate in late June:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/02/iowa-kamala-harris-surges-and-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-suffer/1626346001/

The % of likely caucus voters who are undecided went from 21% to 29%, a nearly 40% increase.

The % of voters who currently have a preference but say they might change their mind went from 60% to 63%.

So after more debates and 3-1/2 months more campaigning, Iowa voters are even less decided than they were at the end of June.

Biden has slipped in the polls after months of nonstop criticism from both the left and the right (more criticism than I can recall any of our frontrunners ever being subjected to). But so far Warren's shown no real sign of being able to reach the level of support Biden had earlier. (And the last debate hurt her, with the spotlight on her having no real plan to fund MFA.)

And right now I believe it's less likely than ever that Sanders will bow out and try to hand his supporters over to Warren.

I can't see Warren reaching the level of support Biden had earlier, let alone surpassing it, while Sanders is still in the race (and maybe not even if he drops out).

I can't see Buttigieg gaining much more while Biden is still in the race. (And even if Buttigieg gains in Iowa, there's no sign yet he can cut into Biden's support among black voters, or would pick up their support if Biden wasn't running.)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

4 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

New Iowa Suffolk poll: Undecideds up nearly 40% since June. 63% of Decideds could change. (Original Post) highplainsdem Oct 2019 OP

That increase in undecideds may be the result of Berni's health scare. efhmc Oct 2019 #1

Don't think so. Bernie was at 9% in both polls. highplainsdem Oct 2019 #3

Thanks for the info. efhmc Oct 2019 #4

The caucus is a problem in itself, but the fact that there are still a lot of undecided voters, still_one Oct 2019 #2

efhmc

(14,732 posts)

1. That increase in undecideds may be the result of Berni's health scare.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 10:32 AM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,041 posts)

3. Don't think so. Bernie was at 9% in both polls.

Reply to efhmc (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 10:41 AM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

efhmc

(14,732 posts)

4. Thanks for the info.

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 03:03 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

still_one

(92,422 posts)

2. The caucus is a problem in itself, but the fact that there are still a lot of undecided voters,

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 10:36 AM

Oct 2019

which is to be expected this far out, along with the fact that people are going to move back and forth until we get closer to the primaries, and some of the candidates drop out because they don't have the funding

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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