A-rated SurveyUSA NATIONAL poll: Biden 32%, Warren 22%, Sanders 17%, Harris 7%, Buttigieg 5%,

[highplainsdem]

all others 2% or less


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3f8c15c0-bab5-4d13-b944-5b368f707417

Democratic Primary Voters Have Not Gotten the Message That Moderate Joe Biden Is No Longer The Front Runner;
Hunter's Dad Continues to Lead Progressives Sanders and Warren, With Other Democrats Still in Single Digits, Far Behind:

Baggage that others see weighing down moderate Democrat Joe Biden is not yet bothersome to likely Democratic primary voters nationwide, who continue to prefer Biden to more liberal challengers Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, according to SurveyUSA research completed immediately after 12 Democratic candidates debated in Ohio 10/15/19.

At this hour, 15 weeks to the Iowa Caucuses, in interviews with 1,071 likely Democratic Primary voters nationwide, the contest stands:

* Former Vice President Biden, 32% down a nominal 1 point from September.
* Senator Elizabeth Warren, 22%, up 3 points from September.
* Senator Bernie Sanders, 17%, unchanged from September, despite a heart attack.
* Senator Kamala Harris, 7%, up a nominal 1 point from September.
* Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 5%, unchanged from September.
* Other Democrats at 2% or less.

Voters were asked, if their 1st-choice candidate was no longer on the ballot for any reason, who would be their 2nd choice. When the 1st choice and 2nd choices are combined, the same 3 front-runners emerge, in the same order, but with Warren a more formidable challenger to Biden.

Biden's support is disproportionately high-school educated, age 50+, African American, Protestant, and Northeastern. Biden is backed by 40% or more Democrats, in a 12-person field, in each of those demographic sub-populations.

Warren's appeal is much broader, but nowhere as deep. Warren peaks with 30% support only among liberals. She is backed disproportionately by those who are not a member of any organized religion, where she leads with 29%, by rural Democrats, where she is backed by 29% (but still 7 points behind Biden, at 36%), backed by the self-described "poor," where she is at 28% (but still 4 points behind Sanders, who is at 32%), backed by the self-described upper-middle class, where she is at 27% (but still 2 points behind Biden, at 29%), from 4-year college graduates, where she is at 27% (but still 2 points behind Biden), and by seniors, where she has 26% support (but 13 points behind Biden, who is at 39%),

Sanders leads among single parents, with 36% support, leads among the youngest voters, age 18 to 34, with 34% support, leads among the self-described "poor" with 32% support, leads among single voters, with 28% support, and leads in LGBTQ households, with 27% support.

Harris, who is African American, runs 4th among black primary voters. Buttigieg, who is gay, runs 4th in LGBTQ households.

With 1st and 2nd choice votes combined: Biden 49%, Warren 43%, Sanders 36%.

[bluewater]

1. So, Biden lost ground in this A rated poll.

Last Survey USA Poll:

Biden 33% Warren 19% Sander 17%, Biden was +14

This month:

Biden 32% Warren 22% Sanders 17%, Biden is +10

Biden's support is disproportionately high-school educated, age 50+, African American, Protestant, and Northeastern. Biden is backed by 40% or more Democrats, in a 12-person field, in each of those demographic sub-populations.

Warren's appeal is much broader, but nowhere as deep. Warren peaks with 30% support only among liberals. She is backed disproportionately by those who are not a member of any organized religion, where she leads with 29%, by rural Democrats, where she is backed by 29% (but still 7 points behind Biden, at 36%), backed by the self-described "poor," where she is at 28% (but still 4 points behind Sanders, who is at 32%), backed by the self-described upper-middle class, where she is at 27% (but still 2 points behind Biden, at 29%), from 4-year college graduates, where she is at 27% (but still 2 points behind Biden), and by seniors, where she has 26% support (but 13 points behind Biden, who is at 39%),

Sanders leads among single parents, with 36% support, leads among the youngest voters, age 18 to 34, with 34% support, leads among the self-described "poor" with 32% support, leads among single voters, with 28% support, and leads in LGBTQ households, with 27% support.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3f8c15c0-bab5-4d13-b944-5b368f707417

[highplainsdem]

2. 1 point. Still 10 points ahead of Warren.

[bluewater]

22. 4 points. Biden's lead went from +14 to +10... hence "lost ground"

This poll actually reduced Biden's lead in the RCP Polls' tracker, he's at +4.6 there now:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls


Interestingly enough, it also reduced Warren's lead at The Economist's tracker, she's at +1 there now:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[George II]

3. Basically no change within the margin of error.

[highplainsdem]

6. True.

[still_one]

24. What stands out to me is that any positive news regarding Biden, it seems that some cannot seem to

resist from making a negative framing of it thinking it makes Biden look bad, when in reality it makes them look insecure

[George II]

25. Last week it was portrayed that he was "plummeting" (that's the word that was used) while...

...Warren was rising after the debate, when in fact he opened six points vs. Warren.

[bluewater]

32. 4.6 points now according to the RCP Polls yoyo, I mean tracker...

Their 5 point moving average filter of the last 5 polls while ignoring all the other polls, even very recent ones, makes that lead number go up and down like a yoyo as the different polls are released.

Also, for the record, Joe's support at RCP trended down again, for the same reason, and stands at 28.8%. That's lower than his support back when he announced on April 25th when he was at 29.3%.

And then, so we just don't cherry pick which Poll Tracker we follow, we can also look at The Economist's tracker where Warren is +1 over Biden.

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[MineralMan]

13. 1 point is just noise in these polls.

Surely you understand that.

[bluewater]

23. Um, you forgot to mention Warren went up 3% while Biden went down...

Surely you understand Biden's lead went from +14 to +10

This poll actually reduced Biden's polling average at RCP Polls.

Biden now +4.6 at RCP Polls' tracker:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

And it also reduced Warren's polling average at The Economist Primary Polls:

Warren now +1 at The Economist's tracker:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[MineralMan]

28. No, I didn't forget anything.

You assume too much. I commented on a single point.

[bluewater]

29. Sorry, I misunderstood your non sequitor

Your post was a reply to mine pointing out that Biden lost ground in this poll.

So, yes.... 1% of that lost ground was Biden going down... ok.

Pardon me for pointing out that the other part of that lost ground was Warren going up 3%.

My bad.

[DownriverDem]

19. I bet no matter who you support,

you know in your heart that Biden is the best candidate to beat trump.

[Thekaspervote]

4. Thx for posting highplainsdem... our guy with a nice durable double digit lead!

[highplainsdem]

12. You're welcome, Kasper!

[vsrazdem]

5. With all the fuss about Bernie missing the forum, it is interesting that he leads in LGBTQ

households. I guess they know where he stands.

[honest.abe]

7. I have always consider SurveyUSA to be one the best if not the best polling firm.

These numbers look good for VP Biden.

[ritapria]

8. Survey USA is an outstanding polling organization

These results favor Biden over Warren and will get no mention in the media that now greatly favor Warren ……………. I believe it is now Biden 28% Warren 24% Sanders 18% but I take their results very seriously …….

[highplainsdem]

9. Nate Silver commented on the media tending to ignore polls favoring Biden.

And of course there was the hysterical overreaction to Warren being .2 points ahead of Biden in the RCP average for one whole day recently, and nothing about Biden regaining the lead.

[Green Line]

10. You're right, this won't get any mention

The media is trying to pick our candidate

[Kahuna7]

11. Killer Joe.

[Piiolo]

14. Pundits will not tweet this one

Pundits just don't care about polls in which Biden does well.

[Scurrilous]

15. ...

[LakeArenal]

16. Joe 2020.

[emmaverybo]

17. Refreshing to see how Biden is doing according to a credible poll rather than media spin.

[cstanleytech]

18. I personally I think that whoever wins should choose the person that got the second highest number

of votes as their VP candidate.

[oasis]

20. A rating. Biden's the One. nt

[Skya Rhen]

21. This SurveyUSA poll mirrors the latest Morning Consult poll (JB 31, EW 21, BS 18, KH 7, PB 6)

This Survey USA poll has a larger sample size of 1,071 and Morning Consult has sample size of 2,202 which make them more reliable than many other polls out there, which use much smaller sample sizes.

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About: SurveyUSA interviewed 3,900 adults nationwide 10/15/19 through 10/16/19, immediately following the CNN/NYTimes Democratic candidate Debate 10/15/19. Of the adults, 3,080 are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 1,071 were likely to vote in a hypothetical Democratic primary "where they live" today. (Not every jurisdiction in the United States has a primary or caucus; not every American has a chance to vote in a Democratic primary, and by the time Democrats in certain states do get to vote in 2020, a number of the currently campaigning Democrats may have suspended their campaigns. As such, a nationwide poll such as this has greatest value when studying movement over time, from one poll to the next. Where, on this template, you see a "Triangle T", click directly on the "T" to open up tracking graphs that reveal SurveyUSA time-series data. Time-series data is not just available for the overall results to a particular question, but for every demographic sub-population. As is true with any opinion research report, the fewer the individual respondents in the sub-population, the larger the chance that sampling error and other error may make those estimates less precise.


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3f8c15c0-bab5-4d13-b944-5b368f707417


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I believe these two polls are the real deal - Biden is the clear front-runner...

[evertonfc]

26. Biden will be the nominee

but fun debating. Biden can put states in play the others can't. We know Joe. He's not even my favorite but I know so many people that just think Warren can't win. Maybe. Maybe not

[Tarheel_Dem]

27. "The polls are what the polls are".

[ismnotwasm]

30. I don't see this changing

I love and support Kamala Harris, but unless there is a drastic change over the winter, Biden will get the nom. He’s not my favorite, but I can certainly live with that.

I think Biden is underestimated as a politician here by some on DU, for some reason. He has been one of the most powerful people in the world, understands the political landscape and the players, already has contacts around the world to help mitigate the extensive damage that has been done. From a purely practical point of view, there are many reasons to support his candidacy.

[Peacetrain]

31. Very good!!! loving all these numbers today...

its a great feeling

[Gothmog]

33. @JOEBIDEN LEADS IN 9 CONSECUTIVE POLLS

Link to tweet

[Sloumeau]

34. highplainsdem, thanks for posting this! Go Joe! :)