Biden continues to lead in National Dem Primary Polls (RCP)

[UncleNoel]

Curren RCP Averages Democratic Presidential Nomination
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/

Biden 29.4, Warren 24.8 [Biden +4.6]
Sanders 15.2
Buttigieg 6.0, Harris 5.6
Yang 2.2, O'Rourke 2., Klobuchar 2.0, Booker 1.8, Steyer1.4, Gabbard 1.2, Bennet 1.0, Castro 0.8, Williamson 0.5, Ryan 0.5, Bullock0.3

Based on the following Polls
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Politico/Morning Consult, SurveyUSA, Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, FOX News.

Three Biden Friendly and two Warren Friendly polls.

[Thekaspervote]

1. Thx for the breakdown!

[bluewater]

2. Actually Biden is back down to 29.2% support at RCP now

That's below the level of support he had the day he announced on April 25th, when he was at 29.3% support.

Also, his lead on the RCP Polls Tracker is 4.4 % now.

People should realize that RCP POLLS tracker just uses a simple 5 point moving average tracker, that is it simply averages the last 5 polls and does not take into consideration poll size of poll methodology. This is why, for example, over the last few weeks Biden's numbers keep fluctuating between ~29% and ~26% -- better and worse polls are a incorporated into that 5 poll average and the rest, even very recent polls are ignored.

For another approach to tacking polls, people might also want to consider looking at the Economist's Primary polls tracker:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

Personally, I suggest keeping an eye on both tools, they both offer valuable information.

[TwilightZone]

4. "does not take into consideration poll size"

For reasons that should be obvious. Individual polls are already adjusted for demographics and are intended to represent the whole.

Adjusting them after the fact would make zero sense.

[TidalWave46]

6. Do you have a link for the internals....

internals for the YouGov Blue/Data for Progress Sep 23–Oct 04?

Why do you think they would even consider using such a horrible outlier?

[Gothmog]

11. @JOEBIDEN LEADS IN 9 CONSECUTIVE POLLS

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

15. SIXTH national poll after debate with BIDEN leading with average margin of 8.5%

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

16. Why is Biden down to 28.7% at RCP Polls? That's even lower than earlier in the week...

And it's even lower than the 29.3% support he had back on April 25th when he announced his campaign.

[Gothmog]

20. This makes me smile

Biden is dominating with moderate voters

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

19. Here are the latest RCP numbers

Warren is not doing well

Link to tweet

[Peacetrain]

3. Awesome!!!

Thanks for the numbers update

[BlueMississippi]

5. Love this! k&r nt

[MineralMan]

7. Joe Biden has led the national poll averages since they first started

polling for the 2020 nomination. He has never not led them, even before he announced his candidacy.

I think it's important to make that clear. Will that lead hold? I can't say, but I can say that he has led the polling since the very beginning, and that's a pretty clear sign that he's not going to disappear from the race, don't you think?

[Scurrilous]

8. ...

[Cha]

9. KR!

[Gothmog]

10. For this thread

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

12. The most important number in the CNN 2020 poll isn't the one you think it is

You can not win the Democratic nomination without significant African American voter support

Link to tweet

Biden is ahead because he is consolidating his support among non-white voters, a key voting bloc among whom he already had a very clear edge over his primary rivals.
Here's how the numbers by race break out in the new CNN poll:
Whites

Biden 27%
Warren 23%
Sanders 15%

Non-Whites

Biden 42%
Sanders 16%
Warren 13%

That's striking stuff. And while Biden has long led among non-white voters, his support has surged since earlier this fall when he was taking just 28% of their vote in a hypothetical Democratic primary ballot.
Why is his support among non-white voters -- and the suggestion that support is increasing as actual votes near -- so important for Biden and his chances? Because non-whites have been the decisive voting bloc in each of the recent contested Democratic presidential primaries. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton because of his massive edge over her among black voters. Eight years later, Clinton beat Sanders because she crushed him among African Americans and Hispanics.

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. I expect these polls to go back & forth between the top two. However, you'll hear only one of them..

as the lead on the evening news. Guess which one. Go on....guess.

[Gothmog]

14. Three national polls with @JoeBiden leading by solid margins

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

18. Joe Biden sees a major jump in the polls putting him ahead of Elizabeth Warren

Link to tweet