CNN Poll: Biden's lead in Democratic primary hits widest margin since April

[OKNancy]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/23/politics/cnn-poll-biden-lead-increases/index.html

Former Vice President Joe Biden's lead in the race for the Democratic nomination for president has rebounded, and now stands at its widest margin since April, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

Biden has the support of 34% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters, his best showing in CNN polling since just after his campaign's formal launch on April 25.
Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont are about even for second, with 19% and 16%, respectively. Behind them, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Kamala Harris of California each have 6% support, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and former Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke each at 3%.

--------------------
Biden 34%
Warren 19%
Sanders 16%
Buttigieg 6%
Harris 6%
Klobuchar 3%
O’Rourke 3%

Poll conducted by SSRS - A- rating by 538

[Cha]

1. Wow.. just the opposite of what

I've been seeing around certain places that have him practically out of the race!

Mahalo, Nancy!

[ritapria]

2. Congratulations Biden supporters

You have gone through a serious rough patch as of late and are entitled to some good news … I hope you guys exhibit similiar good sportsmanship when Bernie wins the nomination …

[still_one]

4. Nice sentiment which is applicable to all

[jcmaine72]

6. This

[Gothmog]

17. I doubt that sanders will be the nominee of the party

There are far too many real democrats who have good memories and will not forgive or forget.

These numbers make me smile

Link to tweet

[regnaD kciN]

28. AND...so much for that "nice sentiment."

Stay classy, Biden supporters!

[Gothmog]

36. I am glad that Biden is doing well

Link to tweet

[NurseJackie]

24. It's pretty clear that BS has reached his "high-water" mark (or ceiling)...

... and, again, he won't be our party's nominee. The BS fans and followers are loyal, but there just aren't enough of them.

His smears and attacks on Democrats and the Democratic party do not help to endear him in the eyes of loyal Democrats who have long memories. The distrust and resentment that's created with lies about how the Democratic party is "corrupt" or "feeble" or "ideologically bankrupt" won't be forgotten overnight.

All I'm saying is that the Democratic party can do better than to nominate someone who hates (or has such contempt) for the party and its loyal members.

[calguy]

27. I used to like Bernie

Those days ended after the 2016 convention and the weeks that followed.

[Chemisse]

34. That's exactly what happened with me.

I voted for him in the primary, in fact.

I felt betrayed by the way he behaved at the end. I won't forget it because it shows his true nature and inclinations. No smoothing over later on can change that.

[Cha]

26. When? Don't you mean "If"?

[LakeArenal]

30. Very much, right back at ya, 16%.

[Dennis Donovan]

3. Kick

[thesquanderer]

5. CNN is a debate-qualifying poll so the 3% for Klobuchar and O'Rourke is significant (n/t)

[LeftTurn3623]

11. this is bad news

last thing we need is another crowed stage. I was really hoping Klobuchar and O'Rourke would be eliminated along with some of the other lower people. 8-10-12 people is way too many people on the stage. Please make it 5% for crying out loud

[DeterDeter]

7. the polls have been pretty good

for Biden this week. I still think that there is a high probability that Warren wins Iowa, and Biden's cash on hand issues are troubling, but it does seem like Biden is still solid and that some of these polls run counter to the media's narrative about him.

[Thekaspervote]

8. His poll numbers are certainly on an upward trajectory!

[NYC Democrat]

9. o god this is qualifying for Amy and Beto

Nothing against ether of them, I think Amy did well last debate but at this rate we are never going to have a debate with less than 8 people before Iowa the idea of the increasing thresholds winnowing the field just.. has not happened in any meaningful way aside from people who NEVER passed 1%.

I will say Biden just.. randomly gaining 10 points purely from Undecided seems.. a tad unrealistic. I can buy Biden at 30 odd percent a lot of polls get that but going from 24-34 more likely means they screwed something up last month.

[LakeArenal]

31. Sure.

[oasis]

10. Biden's the One.

[Scurrilous]

12. K&R

[Gothmog]

13. This poll makes me smile

Link to tweet

[George II]

14. I noted elsewhere - Biden 34%, Warren PLUS Sanders 35%. Great news for Biden people.

[UncleNoel]

15. He needs the "cash to cash in" on his momentum.

So to speak.

[UncleNoel]

16. Some of CNN's rundown of Biden's "rebound"!

CNN Poll: Biden's lead in Democratic primary hits widest margin since April
https://us.cnn.com/2019/10/23/politics/cnn-poll-biden-lead-increases/index.html

snip//

Biden's rise comes largely from a consolidation of support among his core backers, and doesn't appear to harm any individual opponent. Warren and Sanders hold about even with their standing in the last CNN poll in September, and no other candidate has seen a shift of more than 2 points in that time.
But Biden has seen big spikes in support among moderate and conservative Democrats (43% support him now, up from 29% in the September poll), racial and ethnic minorities (from 28% among all nonwhites in September to 42% now) and older voters (up 13 points since September among those 45 and older) that outpace those among younger potential Democratic voters (up 5 points among those younger than 45).
The gains come as Biden's time as vice president is put under the spotlight by President Donald Trump and his allies. Trump is facing an impeachment inquiry by the House of Representatives over allegations that he pressured the Ukrainian government to investigate Biden and his son, Hunter Biden, as well as the 2016 US election in return for releasing hundreds of millions in congressionally mandated defense funding meant for Ukraine. Hunter Biden was on the board of a Ukrainian natural gas company while Biden was vice president. There is no evidence that either Biden did anything wrong in Ukraine.
The poll suggests that although Biden's October debate performance did not blow away the audience (15% who watched or followed news about it said he had done the best job in the debate, well behind Warren's 28% -- but better than most on the stage), the arguments he made on health care, foreign policy and the economy may have boosted his standing with the potential Democratic electorate.
Asked which candidate would best handle a range of top issues, Biden leads the way on four of the six issues tested in the poll. He holds a massive edge over the field on foreign policy (56% say he would handle it best, well ahead of Sanders at 13% and Warren at 11%), and tops the next closest candidate by nearly 20 points on the economy (38% Biden, 19% Sanders, 16% Warren). Biden also outpaces the rest of the field as most trusted on immigration (29% Biden, 16% each Warren and Sanders) and gun policy (27% vs. 13% Sanders and 11% Warren, with O'Rourke close at 9%).
Biden doesn't hold a significant edge on the critical issue of health care (31% Biden, 28% Sanders, 17% Warren) but he's surged 13 points on the issue since June, when he lagged behind Sanders. Neither Sanders' nor Warren's numbers on the issue have moved significantly in that time.
And Biden now runs even with Sanders at 26% as best able to handle the climate crisis. Warren is at 18% on that issue. The results mark increases for Biden and Sanders, who were each at 19% on handling the climate in June.
RELATED: Your guide to where the 2020 Democrats stand on the issues
The former vice president's advantages on the issues come as he emphasizes an approach that appears to align with the preferences of most potential Democratic voters. A 53% majority say they want the nominee to advocate policies that have a good chance of becoming law, even if the changes aren't as big, vs. 42% who prefer advocating big changes even if they have less of a chance of becoming law.

[emmaverybo]

33. Very interesting info. Thanks.

[peggysue2]

35. Nice analyses and breakdown of what we're seeing

Thanks for including the text clip. Good info and good news for Joe Biden and his drum beating!



AGO4JOE2020

[Gothmog]

18. Nate Silver has some observations

Link to tweet

[MineralMan]

19. Dare I say it? Biden is SURGING!

Others are PLUMMETING!

[LakeArenal]

32. Exactly.

[Demsrule86]

20. Great news.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

21. Kick

[Tarheel_Dem]

22. WoW! Is this proof that the Ukraine brouhaha is backfiring?

[Gothmog]

23. The most important number in the CNN 2020 poll isn't the one you think it is

You can not win the Democratic nomination without significant African American voter support

Link to tweet

Biden is ahead because he is consolidating his support among non-white voters, a key voting bloc among whom he already had a very clear edge over his primary rivals.
Here's how the numbers by race break out in the new CNN poll:
Whites

Biden 27%
Warren 23%
Sanders 15%

Non-Whites

Biden 42%
Sanders 16%
Warren 13%

That's striking stuff. And while Biden has long led among non-white voters, his support has surged since earlier this fall when he was taking just 28% of their vote in a hypothetical Democratic primary ballot.
Why is his support among non-white voters -- and the suggestion that support is increasing as actual votes near -- so important for Biden and his chances? Because non-whites have been the decisive voting bloc in each of the recent contested Democratic presidential primaries. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton because of his massive edge over her among black voters. Eight years later, Clinton beat Sanders because she crushed him among African Americans and Hispanics.

[Gothmog]

25. Joe Biden sees a major jump in the polls putting him ahead of Elizabeth Warren

Link to tweet

[Peacetrain]

29. Makes my heart sing!! that is just awesome