CNN poll: Biden leads the race--15 points ahead of Warren. His widest margin since April

[emmaverybo]

Biden has 34% of Dem and Dem leaning registered voters, best showing since formal launch April 25.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/23/politics/cnn-poll-biden-lead-increases/index.html

Warren: 19 %
Sanders: 16 %
Buttigieg: 6%
Harris: 6%
Klobuchar: 3%
O’Rourke. 3%

[MineralMan]

1. That can't be right. The Economist has a poll

that shows Warren in the lead. Any poll that shows her in the lead is obviously more accurate, see, no matter how many show Biden in the lead.

[emmaverybo]

3. Right! It's wrong and if it were right--which it isn't--would be a big rebound from all the polls

all the time showing Warren new frontrunner.


Not.

[TidalWave46]

4. One of the polls the economist is using for their regression model has...

28 Warren - 18 Biden

Another one factoring into their model has 36 Warren - 23 Biden.

[MineralMan]

5. Doesn't matter to me, actually.

I look at polls as little snapshots in time, and as that alone.

Individual polls really carry no weight for me. Instead, I look at aggregates of polls taken at the same times. Then, I look at trends over time, based on those aggregates.

Here's the thing about that: Joe Biden has been the leader since the very beginning. Not once has he dropped out of the lead in the aggregate of polls.

I find it amusing when people post individual poll numbers here, as though only the poll they like has any validity.

And I also look at delegate numbers from various states, and check the polling being done in the states which send the most delegates to the convention. When I do that, the picture becomes clearer.

Others look at such things in various ways, and they're welcome to do that. I might question their evaluation of what they think they see in them, though.

[TidalWave46]

7. That's kind of the point. NT

[efhmc]

9. Can you give me a link to good poll for Texas?

Thanks.

[MineralMan]

10. I haven't noticed any primary polls for Texas recently.

I don't follow politics in Texas, really.

[efhmc]

14. Thanks anyway.

[Thekaspervote]

12. Except the economist poll avg as of today shows JB & EW at 25% each. JB +3 EW -3

[MineralMan]

13. That's still relatively meaningless, as are all polling data.

See my post about the value of polling.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287321867

[Tertullian]

2. Biden or Hillary will be the nominee.

The Dem nominee will be either Joe Biden or Hillary.

Order will be restored.

[Gothmog]

6. Nate has some observations on this poll

Link to tweet

[ritapria]

8. Latest You/Guv Poll just released

Biden 24% Warren 21% Bernie 15%...………. Last week it was Warren 29% Biden 25% Bernie 13% …. Aggregate AVG of last 6 National Polls : Biden 29% Warren 20.5 % Bernie 17.5%

[Thekaspervote]

11. Here are several polls out Monday including one from IA, has Biden retaking the lead

🚨 Awesome day of polling for Democratic frontrunner @JoeBiden!

National polls
@surveyusa +10
@MorningConsult +9
@Ipsos +7 (+9 over Trump)
Public Religion Research Institute +8

Iowa
@Suffolk_U +1

Minn.
@MasonDixonPoll +12 over Trump

You/gov is always EW best poll

[Tarheel_Dem]

15. "The polls are what the polls are".

[OldRed2450]

16. I love Biden! I'm excited to see this!

[Gothmog]

17. The most important number in the CNN 2020 poll isn't the one you think it is

You can not win the Democratic nomination without significant African American voter support

Link to tweet

Biden is ahead because he is consolidating his support among non-white voters, a key voting bloc among whom he already had a very clear edge over his primary rivals.
Here's how the numbers by race break out in the new CNN poll:
Whites

Biden 27%
Warren 23%
Sanders 15%

Non-Whites

Biden 42%
Sanders 16%
Warren 13%

That's striking stuff. And while Biden has long led among non-white voters, his support has surged since earlier this fall when he was taking just 28% of their vote in a hypothetical Democratic primary ballot.
Why is his support among non-white voters -- and the suggestion that support is increasing as actual votes near -- so important for Biden and his chances? Because non-whites have been the decisive voting bloc in each of the recent contested Democratic presidential primaries. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton because of his massive edge over her among black voters. Eight years later, Clinton beat Sanders because she crushed him among African Americans and Hispanics.

[emmaverybo]

18. Thanks, Gothmog, for pointing out the really important numbers. And what a smile, what a pic.

Beat him like a Joe.

[Cha]

19. In spite of everything negative put forth by

so many who want to bring him down!

Wow.. Mahalo, emmaverybo! party: