Monmouth SC Poll: JB 33 (-6), EW 16 (+7), BS 12 (+2). KH 6 (-6)

[BeyondGeography]

Biden maintains lead, but some potential for shifts within black electorate

West Long Branch, NJ – Former Vice President Joe Biden remains the clear front-runner among likely Democratic voters in South Carolina. The Monmouth University Poll finds little has changed in overall presidential primary support, but there is evidence that black voters’ preference for the front-runner varies significantly when age and education are taken into account.

Biden currently holds 33% support among South Carolina voters who are likely to vote in the February 2020 Democratic primary. This is down slightly from his 39% support level in Monmouth’s July poll. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (16%) and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (12%) are in the second tier of candidate preferences. Warren has improved on her 9% standing in July while Sanders was at a similar 10% then. California Sen. Kamala Harris has 6% support, which is down from 12% in July.

Other candidates registering at least 2% support in the poll are former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer (4%), South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (3%), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (2%), Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (2%), and entrepreneur Andrew Yang (2%). The remaining nine candidates included in the poll receive 1% support or less. Another 15% of likely voters say they are not yet leaning toward any candidate in this race.

Shifts, or lack thereof, in the fortunes of these candidates can be seen more plainly when both the first and second choices of voters are examined. Biden is a top-two preference for 46% of Palmetto State Democrats (down slightly by 4 points from 50% in July), Warren is at 35% (up 16 points from 19%), Sanders is at 23% (same as 23% in July), and Harris is at 13% (down 15 points from 28%). However, Biden’s position as either a first or second choice candidate has dropped by 10 points among black voters (52% from 62% in July). Warren’s position as a top-two choice has improved among black voters (26% from 11% in July). Harris has declined as a top-two choice among black voters (17% from 28% in July), while Sanders remains about the same (25% from 23% in July).

..."Biden is still in a pretty good position in South Carolina, but there are some signs that he might not have a true firewall among black voters. If he does not do well in the earlier contests in February, there may be potential for current preferences to shift here,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

More at https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_sc_102319/

[LakeArenal]

1. Consistently.

[bluewater]

2. ut oh... cracks appearing in the SC Biden firewall?

seems so...

[George II]

5. I'm sure any of the other candidates would LOVE to have the "cracks" that Biden has....

...with a 2-1 advantage.

[bluewater]

10. The advantage is down to 2:1 now? Didn't it used to be 3:1?

interesting...

[George II]

11. I don't think so, but....

Last night the Washington Nationals were ahead of the Astros 5-2, that dropped to 5-4 but they still won the game.

That's how these things go.

[BeyondGeography]

6. He needs to show strength in the first three contests

If he loses all three, that's not enough of a firewall going by this poll at least to guarantee a big delegate sweep in SC.

[Funtatlaguy]

3. Someone please explain Harris Decline. I really like her but she is struggling.

[oasis]

13. She may have issues with "authenticity". That'd be my guess. nt

[Scurrilous]

4. ...

[ritapria]

7. Monmouth Oversampling voters 65 and older- which hurts Bernie

Their SC Sample : Voters 65+ : 31% vs. 2016 SC Primary : Voters 65+ 19% of Vote …. Monmouth has Bernie at 12% in SC …...More accurate result : Bernie at 15% in SC ……….

[LanternWaste]

8. You should try blaming name recognition again.

Or the media.

Cast a wider net of excuses beyond mere methodology for poor polling results. It sounds more convincing.

[honest.abe]

9. Biden has 52% of the black vote compared to Warrens 26%.

That's a huge lead regardless of some movement. That will be very difficult for Warren to close that gap.