Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumYouGov Poll: Warren slips
Biden: 24 (-1)
Warren: 21 (-7)
Sanders: 15 (+2)
Buttigieg: 8 (+2)
Harris: 5 (-)
Etc.
This represents Bidens first lead in this poll in a month and her lowest level of support since the first week of sept. This has been one of her best polls.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Warren avoiding answering how she plans to fund Medicare for All seems to have had a decided impact on post debate polls.
She needs to release her funding plan and release it soon.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DownriverDem
(6,228 posts)Biden is our best candidate. trump doesn't want to run against Biden. Biden running with a strong progressive Dem woman like Harris, will be a formidable ticket. We must not blow this.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,820 posts)This is all so very normal. It gets reported like it is huge breaking news.
The shes up, hes down. Shes down, hes up. No shit. Thats how it supposed to work. Eventually its probably going to come down to two. Maybe three.
Thats when whos up or down will matter.
Good for Joe. Good for Liz.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,773 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,288 posts)the negativity from the usual suspects Biden is still going strong!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
peggysue2
(10,830 posts)The fact that Joe Biden has managed to hold his lead after all the attacks and smears is a very good yardstick on his durability.
Elizabeth Warren has slipped since the last debate. I think that's primarily over the Medicare4All funding and her reluctance to be forthcoming on the issue. Right now it's an albatross hanging around her neck. She'll need to come up with a realistic funding plan or pivot to something more reasonable.
Good news for Joe!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TidalWave46
(2,061 posts)Warren 36 Biden 23
That was conducted from Sept 23 - Oct 4
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)The YouGov polls actually reflect movement in their results. Unlike some... cough MorningConsult cough
This is not a good trend for Warren and I can't help but think it's due to her avoiding a direct question about funding Medicare for All.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TidalWave46
(2,061 posts)It's not the only poll like that the economist is running with. Complete sham.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)RCP has some doozies of it's own.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TidalWave46
(2,061 posts)They have had some questionable polls and a couple of outliers. Some of the ones the economist are using aren't outliers. They are sham polls.
They also don't use those outliers in a regression model. That is borderline criminal.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)cough HarrisX cough
Also, The Economist doesn't use the shady Emerson Poll and RCP does. Emerson had 51% college educated respondants in their last poll, and they didn't even bother to weight them. That's why Sanders always does so well in that poll.
please list shady polls The Economist uses that are not also used by RCP.
If you have a point, I would appreciate details.
And you really need to expand on this statement:
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TidalWave46
(2,061 posts)YouGov
Warren 28 Biden 18
Sept 26 - 30
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
It's like telling statistics to fuck off using such nonsense in regression analysis.
The polls are what the polls are.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)It's your claim, you need to validate it.
C'mon LIST the shady polls Economist is using that RCP isn't.
You can do that right?
otherwise its all bluster...
I already mention TWO shady polls RCP uses that the Economist does not: HarrisX and Emerson.
Your turn...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TidalWave46
(2,061 posts)I did do it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Just list the polls that you claim the Economist uses that RCP polls does not.
Still waiting....
I already pointed out RCP uses the shady Emerson University poll, for example.
Link to tweet
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TidalWave46
(2,061 posts)I'm not sure you've even read my posts in their entirety. If you had, you would see the blatant fallacy in your argument/question.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Hey, here is something about that SHADY Emerson poll RCP always uses:
Link to tweet
Link to tweet
Link to tweet
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ritapria
(1,812 posts)A sample that is tilted towards college grads Favors Warren , not Bernie , so I don't understand what is the point G. Elliot Morris is trying to make . To be frank , I don't know what he is talking about when he refers to MTURK Perhaps Males watching The Young Turks ? .
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)I had to edit this post when I found out what MTurk was...
Oh, MTurk is a paid survey responding thru Amazon.
Oh lord. 35% of the Emerson poll responded via MTurk. That is disqualifying
THAT explains things more than the 51% of respondents with some college. No wonder the results seem so counter intuitive.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ritapria
(1,812 posts)I was wondering why Emerson was producing results so different from the other polls
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ritapria
(1,812 posts)And he is telling people that Bernie is super strong among those with college degrees ...Can you believe that ?... Elliot ...Those folks are flocking to Elizabeth Warren ..He writes about polls, elections and political science for one of the world's most prominent news publications .He thinks affluent , educated people are feeling the Bern ? . His employer, The Economist , are sponsoring YouGuv Polls that have produced Pro Warren outliers for months on end .He should criticize those polls before going after the results produced by an obscure College ...Which poll has the better ranking from Nate Silver ?... Emerson B+ . Youguv /Economist B-
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Um, that's real bad, isn't it?
And didn't Morris actually point out that Emerson also had 51% of its respondants being colleged educated and they didn't even weight that demographic?
So, it's bad methodology all around and it looks like the 35% MTurk paid respondents offset the 51% college educated ones in boosting Bernie's numbers.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HeartlandProgressive
(294 posts)Makes sense why their results are so crazy. No wonder The Economist refuses to use it in its tracker.
So Emerson uses Amazon's MTurk PAID surveys for 35% of the people responding in their poll... that's disqualifying.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)I had no idea that The Emerson University were using that large a number of paid people in it's poll.
That certainly does explain a lot. Sloppy methodology all around.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HeartlandProgressive
(294 posts)https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-sanders-warren-maintain-front-runner-status-in-democratic-primary
It's amazing what you find out when you look deeper at a poll.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
pnwpolicy
(32 posts)Biden and Warren are within margin of error.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Skya Rhen
(2,701 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
madville
(7,412 posts)Because she cant be honest about the enormous costs and associated tax increases that come with the M4A plan.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)She definitely has taken a hit in the polls for being evasive about funding Medicare for All.
I love Warren, but even I can see that she needs to release a detailed plan about her healthcare plan and how to fund it.
And she needs to do that soon.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
madville
(7,412 posts)Which candidate would handle health care better:
Biden 31
Sanders 28
Warren 17
Bidens improve the ACA approach is popular, especially with a public option. Bernie is committed to M4A and upfront about everything that comes with it. Warrens campaign made a big blunder on this single issue. They can still turn it around maybe, well see what funding plan they release in the coming weeks.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Personally, I think Warren would be best served with a detailed plan of implementing Medicare for All in steps over a longer time period than 4 years. I think that's the best approach to get the health insurance system we actually need.
Everyone admits the current system is sub-optimal for most and an outright failure for too many people.
Everyone right now, including your candidate, is on board with some form of public option.
But the problem with a public option is that private insurance companies will find ways to dump high cost customers who would then have to enter the public option. Couple that with the working poor who would need to be subsidized in a public option and it's doomed to be a financial failure.
Transitioning to a national health insurance system like Medicare for All that puts everyone in the same risk pool and funds it thru various forms of taxation seems the only workable long term solution, well to some of us.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kahuna7
(2,531 posts)That wealth tax won't do it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)I think it's due to not being able to say how she plans to fund Medicare for All at the last debate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,303 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
saljr1
(273 posts)in the end I don't believe Biden will be the nominee. JMHO
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sloumeau
(2,657 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,303 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)And it's lower than the 29.3% support he had back on April 25th when he announced his campaign.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,303 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)And his average support is only 28.7%?
Is there something wrong about how RCP POLLS tracks polls?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UncleNoel
(864 posts)that are Warren friendy
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,303 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,303 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)You could, y'know... find out and inform us. With objective evidence supporting a valid conclusion.
Or you could just continue asking why it rains on the just and unjust alike.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)So, I keep asking people that post the RCP Polls results to explain that.
That seems like a very reasonable thing to do, don't you think?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,303 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)That's more than 2% below where he started back on April 25th when he announced. He was at 29.3% support then.
And, his lead is no longer "almost 7%", today it's +5.4
So, sure he's leading, but why is Joe's support so low? Why is it below what it was when he announced?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Act_of_Reparation
(9,116 posts)Would Biden still be leading if either Sanders or Warren weren't in the race? I mean, I'm not a mathicist or anything, but it looks like progressivism is the preferred platform... it's just split between two candidates.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,303 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
quickesst
(6,280 posts)Candidate most likely to beat Trump?
Biden- 42%
Warren- 20%
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,303 posts)Link to tweet
?s=20
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Happy Hoosier
(7,314 posts)She needs to dispense with handwavium and just be up front on how she will fund her projects.
I predict Bernie's "I don't need to do that now" approach will cause him to fade further. If you want to convince me your plan isn't free ponies and pizza, show me the math.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden