New Poll Shows Biden Would Turn 5 Swing States Blue And Beat Trump In An Electoral Landslide

[highplainsdem]

From PoliticusUSA:

https://www.politicususa.com/2019/11/04/new-poll-biden-five-swing-states-blue-trump-electoral-landslide.html

New swing state polling shows that former vice president Joe Biden continues to be the most electable potential nominee to take on Donald Trump in 2020.

According to The New York Times/Siena College poll of nearly 4,000 voters, Biden would pull five swing states into the blue column if he is the eventual Democratic nominee and win in an Electoral College landslide if he holds all of the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

The survey shows that the former VP leads Trump in Pennsylvania (+1), Florida (+2), Wisconsin (+2), Michigan (+1) and Arizona (+3). The finding aligns with other recent polling that shows Biden leading Trump in key swing states.

Meanwhile, the other Democratic frontrunner, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, trails Trump in all five of those key battleground states.

-snip-

To be sure, the results of The New York Times/Siena College survey show a much closer race than other polls.

In fact, other polling released on Monday shows Trump getting walloped in Michigan by each of the Democratic frontrunners.

While the Democratic nomination fight remains semi-volatile, general election polling has remained stable and shows that Joe Biden is the only candidate – so far – with a clear electoral advantage against Donald Trump.

[Cha]

1. KR!!

That's why I'm here.. to beat trump!

[DownriverDem]

2. When are folks

going to wake up? Go Joe!

[elleng]

3. Good to see, but MUCH TOO EARLY to rely on ANY polls, imo.

[Jarqui]

4. To me, the polls have been saying that since before he formally announced

They said it to Trump as well.

The fact that the polls kept saying it was the motive for Trump to extort Ukraine.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. I'm thinking this eleciton is going to shake out on reliability and risk

After 4 years of Trump, voters don't want risk. They want to get back to normal. Joe Biden is perceived as solid, been there, with an Obama nostalgia aura.

Elizabeth Warren may have more upside than Joe Biden, if she can ignite millennials, if they don't stay home. But I think she has more downside if independents aren't comfy with her platform. Conversely, I think Biden has less potential upside, but also less downside.

[emmaverybo]

15. I don't see more upside in Warren. Biden is more job-specific qualified, experienced, accomplished,

and has foreign policy expertise, sorely needed in this “moment we are in.” He has a broader appeal, has sounded more substantive and deeper themes, and communicates with an emotional
intelligence that so far eludes her. The only upside is her following among a sizable minority in our party who share her ideological principles.

Downside is that she’s ideological, focused solely on her policies and plans, ties herself to these
plans almost obsessively, and fails to to impress not only the most important electorate in our base, AA voters, but as well, intersectionally, voters in states we need in order to win the GE.

Upside to Biden is broad appeal, ability to frame the fight against the Trump machine from day one, and, as peggysue2 has said, to palpate the “pulse of the nation.” She reads progressives, she breathes devotion to an anti-corporate agenda, and to ideas about income inequality, but so far
her policies to achieve the progressive movement’s ideals have touched the movement only.

Like Bernie, her wheelhouse is somewhat narrow. Those inspired already live there and are entranced by a helms person exuding passion.

Those not yet in that space will likely remain outside it.

[Thekaspervote]

23. All very good points Emma!

Agree especially about Biden’s broad appeal and FP knowledge. even those voters that aren’t as yet paying attention want to return to some form of normalcy and retake our place on the the world stage.

EW has become locked into a battle for mfa and all voters hear is she’s A. Going to take my employer based health care away, B. raise my taxes C. put a big dent in the insurance industry jobs market

IMHO

[bucolic_frolic]

27. All true but millennials don't think like that

That's why I think Warren has upside potential IF millennials turnout en masse, and why Biden has little downside but his millennial support is unknown. Motivating and capturing Warren/Sanders supporters is the key to Biden's upside.

[pinkstarburst]

28. Right

This is why if Biden gets the nomination, he needs to run with Warren as his VP. He can get the moderate vote out, but he has little appeal to millennials and the progressive side of the ticket. He needs someone like Warren/Sanders who speaks to their issues and makes them feel like their voices are heard, or else we're going to have a similar problem with turnout as in 2016.

[Demsrule86]

35. Are you saying the progressive wing of the party won't vote for the Democratic nominee in order

to kick Trump to the curb...than I say these are not Democrats. You vote for the nominee period.

[emmaverybo]

38. +10000

[LAS14]

37. I don't want Warren as VP. She needs a position with more policy making ooomph. nt

[Demsrule86]

36. They never turn out in useful numbers...certainly not enough to put Warren over the top...and we

have won elections without them before- 20 may be one of those times...but I have hope. Consider my millennial kids ...two are supporting Warren in the primary, one supports Biden in the primary...all plan to vote for the Democratic nominee in the general. We have always been a political family...took my kids door knocking during campaigns when they were still in strollers. My oldest went to the women's march in DC in 17 too...took her out of school for this historical event. They will all vote in the general. I have heard that Biden may champion putting student loans back into the bankruptcy law...so it is possible to relieve this debt in bankruptcy. This would help many millennials who have low paying or moderately paying jobs Heard it at a campaign meeting...no idea if it is true. I hope it is.

[regnaD kciN]

6. All five of those "leads" are within the MoE...

...and, more importantly, were smaller than Clinton’s edge in those polls on the morning of Election Day 2016.

I’m amenable to the notion of Biden being “more electable” than other candidates, but that evidence would have to be more than a 1% lead in a must-win state.

[Kahuna7]

8. That's just this one poll. Other polls for those swing states show a much

greater lead for Biden.

[regnaD kciN]

12. Maybe, but THIS is the poll being held up as "evidence" here...

...and, frankly, it’s pretty tenuous.

[Dopers_Greed]

7. Those aren't leads

Those are within the margin of error in most polls.

[Skya Rhen]

11. Still Joe's margin is higher than Warren or Sanders. He, indisputably, outperforms them.

[Thekaspervote]

24. No doubt..he is definitely the front not runner

Go Joe go... we’ve got your back

[Indykatie]

9. Of Course Biden Would. This is Why Trump Was Pushing Ukranians to Manufacture Dirt on Him.

Poll after poll has shown Biden beating Trump by a wider margin and winning some states that Dems lost in 2016.

[ritapria]

10. Biden is in a statistical tie with Trump

In Pa , WI, MI , FL and slightly ahead in AZ …. I don't buy this bullshit poll …. If it is true , Trump will be re-elected …… He'll pour 500 million dollars of negative ads against the eventual nominee and put the election away ……… if this poll is accurate, we must motivate first time voters to the polls , particularly young people …..

[Loki Liesmith]

26. Actually no

First off there is no such thing as a “statistical tie”. When numbers are close it simply means the probability the leader is actually the leader is somewhat less than if the margin is larger. But the most likely scenario is still that Biden is leading in each state.

But we have 5 samples here drawn from correlated populations. So the likelihood of a real lead in any one state is larger still than the individual state numbers suggest.

[videohead5]

13. BS poll

I do not believe this poll. If you look at Trump's approval rating in most of these states this poll does not jive.

[Demsrule86]

34. His approval ratings were terrible in 16 and yet he won and EC victory.

I believe he can win again. We need to win big in order to not lose by GOP cheating.

[George II]

14. To think Briahna Gray this morning was bragging that Sanders was doing best in Michigan....

....totally ignoring all the other states in the poll.

[Tiggeroshii]

16. RIGHT?

This is a much better way to read that poll.

[Joe941]

17. Anyone will beat tRump in a landslide. Seriously I'm tired of poll against tRump.

The only choice this election cycle is who gets to defeat tRump, not if they will win.

[Skya Rhen]

19. There is no one so blind as one who refuses to see.

[emmaverybo]

21. If it were only so...sigh.

Go, Joe!

[Thekaspervote]

25. Please wake up!

[Martin Eden]

31. I wish that were so, but after 2016 I won't allow myself to be so certain.

Let's remember that Rethugs will cheat and disenfranchise all they can while gladly accepting aid from Russia.

I was actually quite pleased when Trump won the R nomination. I thought he had zero chance in the general election and his obvious unfitness for office would bring the Republican Party down with him -- but they won the House and the Senate as well.

Winning and winning BIG are first and foremost this election.

[Demsrule86]

33. That is not true...and the wrong candidate will lose. Incumbents have an advantage and Trump

figured out how to game the system...by winning three states he wins the EC...he is also going after Nevada...and I have seen some troubling polls there. You want a certain candidate...so do I...but electability matters to me...if the polls were not with Joe, I would choose someone else much as I like him...there is no greater mission than removing Trump from office.

[Scurrilous]

18. K&R

[Tarheel_Dem]

20. K&R

[Martin Eden]

29. I'm considering dropping a vow I made in October 2002

I vowed that no Democrat would ever get my vote in a Democratic primary if he or she voted for the IWR which gave GW Bush authority to invade Iraq. In every election since then I've held to that vow.

I've also consistently expressed the opinion that 80 is too old for the presidency, and I still think so. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders would both turn 80 before the end of their first term.

I'm still undecided, but if defeating Trump (or his Rethug replacement) in the general election depends on who we nominate, I will vote for Joe Biden in the primary if he is the candidate most likely to win.

I'm more progressive than Joe in my policy preferences, but I think Medicare for All and some of the other big sweeping changes will scare away too many moderates & independents. We need those changes, but incremental steady progress is better than four more years of unmitigated disaster. I love Elizabeth Warren, but I seriously question whether she can win.

I think a moderate progressive ticket with established government resume's and minimal ammunition for fearmongering is the best bet (I know the rethugs will be flinging fear no matter what, but how much it sticks depends on the candidate). Mayor Pete is a moderate and I like him a ton, but he was unknown until a few months ago and doesn't poll well among African Americans. I think he has a bright future, but 2020 is not his time.

Joe Biden polls very well among AA's, and I think having a woman on the ticket would be smart. Maybe it's just me, but I can't bring myself to really like Kamala Harris. I thought her ambush of Joe in the early debate was unfair and somewhat hypocritical, and there's something about her posturing that turns me off. I don't mean to insult anyone's favorite candidate; I'm just being honest. I like Corey Booker very much and I think he would be a positive on the ticket as VP. Harris could be as well, as I don't claim to be the foremost expert on these things.

I don't think Klobuchar has the charisma to win the general election (and likely has no chance to win the primary) but I think she might be the best selection for the VP ticket. She's a pragmatist with a solid record, and very little if any fear factor among moderates and independents.

Still too early for me to decide, but that's where I stand now. It was a very big step for me to be willing to vote for Joe Biden despite the age issue and his IWR vote. I live in Illinois, so the viable candidates will be considerably winnowed by the time I vote. I voted for Bernie 4 years ago, but I'm not remotely considering him this time.

[Demsrule86]

32. I found this to be very interesting...your take on the race as an undecided. I knew I supported

Biden from the first.

[emmaverybo]

39. I was just hoping and praying he'd run. Apparently I was not the only one:

World leaders tell Biden: We need you
The former vice president would bring deep relationships and heavyweight credentials to a 2020 Democratic field lacking in national security experience.
By DANIEL LIPPMAN 03/20/2019 05:04 AM EDT

Snip———————————————-

When Joe Biden attended the annual Munich Security Conference last month, the wonky foreign policy confab promised an escape from the nonstop speculation back home about the former vice president’s political plans.

Instead, Biden’s 2020 intentions were the talk of the conference.

When Armenian President Armen Sarkissian ran into him in a hallway, a TV camera captured him asking Biden: “Are you going to run?” (Biden whispered an inaudible answer.)

And in several conversations with European leaders in Munich, Biden heard a repeated refrain, according to a conference attendee familiar with the conversations: The world needs you.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/20/biden-2020-foreign-policy-national-security-1228345

[Demsrule86]

30. K&R...Joe will beat Trump and restore our Republic.

[UniteFightBack]

40. Yes and END of STORY. People need to vote with their heads. nt