One Scary Poll for Elizabeth Warren Doesn't Mean It's 2016 Again

[BlueMTexpat]

Part of electability is being good at campaigning, and so far she is.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/11/elizabeth-warren-times-swing-state-poll-talk-me-off-the-ledge.html

This is an interesting article, although I must admit that I don't quite "get" the reference to 2016.

For the record, I am NOT a "skittish" Warren supporter and am hardly in a panic. I'm "all in" for Elizabeth through this seemingly endless primary season.

The New York Times released polls on Monday that show Democratic primary contender Elizabeth Warren trailing Donald Trump in head-to-head surveys of several swing states. Pundits are asserting that Warren’s support for eliminating private health insurance in a transition to full single-payer coverage will be general election suicide. Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who appeals to the same high-information college-educated voters whom Warren needs to do well with, is enjoying a mini-surge. The Democratic electorate continues to tell pollsters that “electability” is the most important attribute their nominee should have vis-à-vis Trump, and a writeup accompanying the Times’ new polls suggests that Warren, in part because she’s a woman, might not be considered “likable” enough to win. In sum, it is a PANIC cycle for Warren supporters—and to some extent, because she’s come to be considered the leading Democrat by some as Joe Biden underwhelms in debates and early state polls—for her party as whole.
...
The thing about campaigns, though, is that they involve campaigning: persuading skeptical or unfamiliar voters to support you. And it would appear that Warren designed her campaign not just to make a positive case for herself, but to neutralize the concerns outlined in the previous paragraph. She got to Iowa—which, as the first state to be holding a vote, is the first available opportunity to prove “electability”—early and has seemingly been there since. She’s emphasized town hall appearances in rural areas, which is the opposite of relying on elite media buzz, and puts her “likability” to the test on a person-to-person basis. In another woman-of-the-people touch, she’s become known for taking selfies after every rally with anyone who wants to wait in line. She has made more than enough money from small donors to fund her campaign. Contra the idea that she has been lifted on the wings of radical millennial Twitter, she does well with older female voters who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. Her standard stump speech goes heavy on her upbringing in Oklahoma and her struggles as a young mother, while her answer on the “Pocahontas” issue—that while family lore and DNA testing suggest she does have some Native ancestry, she doesn’t consider herself a person of color or member of a tribe—has been satisfactory enough that Democratic primary audiences, at least, no longer seem interested in it. She’s established a reputation, among those following the primary, as the candidate who has a geekish excitement for pursuing big projects, which, whatever its potential drawbacks, is better than being perceived as condescending and aloof.

All of this, to the extent it’s possible to measure, has worked. She has gone from being tied for fourth in Iowa to leading the field. She’s drawn to within single digits of Biden nationally and is the Democrat that the most potential primary voters, regardless of whom they support at the moment, say they’d be satisfied to have as the party’s nominee.
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More at the link.

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Keep the faith, Warren supporters!

[BeyondGeography]

1. "The thing about campaigns, though, is that they involve campaigning."

Yup. Saw the Grinnell town hall yesterday. Full room and she had it rocking more than a few times, particularly on fighting corruption, which she can ride all the way to the finish line.

K&R

[LonePirate]

2. My Warren faith is unwavering despite recent events.

With most members of The Squad endorsing Sanders and the attacks on Warren’s health care plan have made for a rough couple of weeks. Still, Warren has the best policies to fix so many of this country’s policies and move the country in a true, progressive direction. As long as she is on the ballot, she has my vote.

[LovingA2andMI]

4. Quick Correction....

Three members of "The Squad" endorsed Sanders, not four. Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley has yet to make an endorsement but, on a hunch, when she does, its going to Senator Warren.

[LonePirate]

5. Yes, she will likely support her home state Senator. I will update my post.

[BlueMTexpat]

9. This.

[LovingA2andMI]

3. Still Team Warren as she will be victorious

at the end. This is how campaign cycles go and many was waiting to put Lizzie in the barrel for a minute. Here's the thing. She is rising right back out of it. #TeamWarren All The Way!

[louseb]

6. Sorry to dampen your optimism, but

There are only 3 states in the game. PA, WI and MI. Any candidate polling south in any of these will, sadly, not make it.

[BlueIdaho]

7. Are you talking Primary or General?

Thanks!

[BlueMTexpat]

8. Ah, surprise!

A gloomer-and-doomer from another candidate. Whooda thunk?

Just a reminder:

PA Primary: April 28, 2020

WI Primary: April 7, 2020

MI Primary: March 10, 2020

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Still early days yet, with Dems still divided among primary candidates and many still saying they're "undecided."

And given the GREAT news from yesterday's elections in VA, KY and MI, the candidate(s) who generate the most voter enthusiasm - both in the primary and the GE - CAN carry the day.

A quick anecdote: in 2018, I once again participated in the Women's March in DC (I had also participated there in 2017). The 2018 March in DC was organized by VA women and I met and chatted with some of these. Their commitment, energy and enthusiasm were extremely impressive and contagious, so I am not at all surprised by yesterday's results there.

[Hortensis]

10. Regarding electability, note KY's voters SPLIT power between parties.

Governor to the Democrats. All other offices to the Republicans.

We have two presidential electability issues:

1. Presidency
2. Congress. We badly need, and may get if we're smart, BOTH HOUSES.

We have to choose a candidate with LONG, NATIONWIDE COATTAILS.

There is grave danger that the wrong candidate could cause the electorate to decide it'd be best to split power between the parties. It would even be possible to lose the house.