Fascinating on 538 - identifying/analyzing Tulsi Gabbard's base

[NRaleighLiberal]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-know-about-tulsi-gabbards-base/

snip

So what do we know about Gabbard’s base? For one thing, it’s overwhelmingly male — in The Economist’s national polling average, her support among men is in the mid-single digits, while her support among women is practically nonexistent.

snip

Gabbard’s supporters are also likely to fall outside of traditional Democratic circles. Her supporters, for instance, are more likely to have backed President Trump in 2016, hold conservative views or identify as Republican compared to voters backing the other candidates.

snip

Quinnipiac’s New Hampshire survey also signaled Gabbard might have success among independent voters in the Democratic primary, a group that boosted Sanders in the 2016 race.

snip

In fact, Gabbard has become a bit of a conservative media darling in the primary, with conservative commentators like Ann Coulter and pro-Trump social media personalities like Mike Cernovich complimenting her for her foreign policy views. In a primary in which some 2020 Democratic contenders have boycotted Fox News, Gabbard has regularly appeared on the network. Just last week, Gabbard even did an exclusive interview with Breitbart News, a far-right political outlet. She’s also made appeals outside the political mainstream by going on The Joe Rogan Experience — one of the most popular podcasts in the country and a favored outlet for members of the Intellectual Dark Web, whose purveyors don’t fit neatly into political camps but generally criticize concepts such as political correctness and identity politics

The nontraditional nature of Gabbard’s support, plus the criticism she’s gotten from Democrats like Hillary Clinton — who has gone as far as to suggest that the Republicans are “grooming” Gabbard, a “favorite of the Russians,” as a spoiler candidate — has certainly helped fuel the idea that Gabbard might run as a third-party candidate. Gabbard has denied it so far, although it is hard to believe her strategy is a winning one in the Democratic primary. While loyal, her base of support just isn’t that big, meaning she needs to make serious inroads with more traditional Democratic constituencies. On the one hand, her back and forth with Clinton may have given her a boost in recent weeks, so battling the party establishment could be a useful strategy. On the other hand, garnering approval from conservative media isn’t likely to improve her poor favorability among Democrats or attract the support she needs to win the primary, no matter how loyal her base is.

[ritapria]

1. Tulsi Gabbard has a base ?

Her current RCP national average is 1.5% …. Because of the 15% threshold rule , she will end up with 0% in Iowa …...Will the people of NH want to throw away their vote by voting for her ? ………. The Iowa winner will subsume part of her support …. Gabbard will probably end up with 3%- 4% in NH ………And that is her strongest state ……....

[Act_of_Reparation]

3. There's someone out there for everyone.

[progree]

2. Well, she's very popular at our "sister site" where many DUers went 3 years ago...

https://jackpineradicals.com/ (JPR)

(which was started by many ex-DUers back around June 2016 who were PPR'd or refused to agree to the new terms and conditions, e.g. no bashing Democratic public figures, support Democrats, don't defend voting 3rd party, yada).

Another interesting characteristic of that site is a virtually unanimous view that Russiagate is a hoax (from my occasional reading of the site, I have seen not one exception).

Oh, they talk about DU all the time, except they don't say "DU" or "DemocraticUnderground", because they have a rule against talking about DU (because in the beginning, they talked obsessively about DU, and it wasn't fondly). So they code name us "S.V.", short for Site Voldemort, after Lord Voldemort, the Harry Potter fictional character who must not be named. So we're the site that must not be named.

Anyway, for anyone scratching their heads about Tulsi Gabbard's "base", there's JPR to puzzle over

[ismnotwasm]

7. Holy shit

[beachbumbob]

4. so 538 can identify russian bots now?

[walkingman]

5. Her and bottle of 101 Wild Turkey would probably be fun.

[woodsprite]

6. She's a slightly more polished version of Klondike Barbie. nt

[OliverQ]

8. Meanwhile, David Duke now has her as his twitter background.

[MarcA]

9. Maybe LaRoucheites 2.0. n/t