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Democratic Primaries
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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
SurveyUSA's summary of the race post-November debate. It pretty well sums it up to now...
Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25016
Data Collected: 11/20/2019 - 11/21/2019
Release Date: 11/26/2019
Neither Burisma Nor Bloopers Nor Unexpected Grand-Baby Can Take Bloom off Biden Rose for Democrats Desperate to Defeat Donald[Trump;
While Warren & Sanders Do-Si-Do for 2nd Place Nationally, Buttigieg Leaps into 4th, Doubling His Support In a Month; Then Came Bloomberg ...
10 weeks to the Iowa Caucuses, likely Democratic primary voters nationwide can't quit Joe Biden, according to SurveyUSA's newest tracking poll, conducted immediately after the 11/20/19 Democratic Candidate Debate in Atlanta. Though Biden's children and now suddenly a grandchild are in the news for all the wrong reasons, though Biden continues to demonstrate to all who pay attention that he struggles to express himself, though he inadvertently steps on the toes of his core constituents, and though Republicans see him as a punching bag, Biden's poll numbers are inert.
In 4 consecutive SurveyUSA tracking polls, Biden has never polled higher than 33%, never polled lower than 32%. Though some see the former Vice President's pants on fire, likely Democratic Primary voters stick with the devil they know. Biden has led in every SurveyUSA nationwide poll, never by less than 10 points, today by 15 points.
Given the chance to choose any of the Democrats still in the race, but before Michael Bloomberg is added to the mix, likely primary voters today appear to have second thoughts about Elizabeth Warren, who drops 6 points from October to November and now polls at 16%, one statistically-insignificant point behind Bernie Sanders, who today, for the 3rd consecutive month, polls at 17%.
Pete Buttigieg had been at 5% in both September and October, but today, as Americans set their Thanksgiving tables, Buttigieg leaps to 12% nationwide, materially ahead of the rest of the pack, 4 points behind Warren and 7 points ahead of Kamala Harris who, despite a strong performance in Atlanta, today finishes 5th.
Combined, Harris and Cory Booker, the other black Democrat on the debate stage, have the support of 12% of African American Democratic primary voters. By contrast, Biden is today backed by 53% of African American Democratic primary voters. Biden was backed by 35% of black Democrats in August, 42% of black Democrats in September, and now 53% of black Democrats in November. 1% of black voters back Buttigieg.
Among white middle-class Democrats, Buttigieg's support doubles month-on month, vaulting Mayor Pete past Warren and past Sanders and landing in Biden's rear-view mirror.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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SurveyUSA's summary of the race post-November debate. It pretty well sums it up to now... (Original Post)
UncleNoel
Dec 2019
OP
They had an extended list that included Bloomberh. The one you have seen posted.
UncleNoel
Dec 2019
#3
From 35% to 53% AA support since August? Sounds like his non-white support is rising...
Tarheel_Dem
Dec 2019
#5
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,343 posts)1. Is there any impact from a Bloomberg campaign?
It seems that he would draw voters from Joe and Pete (and Amy, if she's still in it).
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UncleNoel
(864 posts)3. They had an extended list that included Bloomberh. The one you have seen posted.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1a56d146-5d59-4e5f-a9fa-78219f1ff42f.
Question No. 4. Likely Democratic Voters without Bloomberg (SUSAs first democratic nominee question). :
Question 6 puts Bloomberg in the mix for 30, 17, 15, 12, 1 with a loss of 2 for Biden Sanders not affected, a gain of 1 each for Warren and Buttigieg. While these are the poll numbers usually cited, in their analysis SUSA chooses to use the former. Since Bloomberg officially announced on he 24th his effect on the polls will be measured subsequently.
Question No. 4. Likely Democratic Voters without Bloomberg (SUSAs first democratic nominee question). :
Question 6 puts Bloomberg in the mix for 30, 17, 15, 12, 1 with a loss of 2 for Biden Sanders not affected, a gain of 1 each for Warren and Buttigieg. While these are the poll numbers usually cited, in their analysis SUSA chooses to use the former. Since Bloomberg officially announced on he 24th his effect on the polls will be measured subsequently.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
paleotn
(17,920 posts)7. So far he's drawing very thin support.
I think a lot of voters are beginning to crystallize in who they're supporting, so barring anything earth shattering, he's in way too late.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sloumeau
(2,657 posts)2. UncleNoel, thanks for this posting!
This is great news for Joe Biden.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UncleNoel
(864 posts)4. You're welcome!
He is durable, dependable, stable, and knows how to get things done.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,234 posts)5. From 35% to 53% AA support since August? Sounds like his non-white support is rising...
even as he drops a bit among white voters. I still think that in the end, people will vote based on electability and a return to normalcy.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UncleNoel
(864 posts)6. The link also has a graph showing Joe's dip and Warren's and Buttigieg's rise among them.
I agree with you that this will change over time and those who now choose the others will fall in behind Joe.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UncleNoel
(864 posts)8. I like the sound of "You can't take the bloom off the biden rose"!
Good retort for the Biden is fading meme.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,275 posts)10. And, they're tying so hard!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,582 posts)9. Thanks UncleNoel K&R
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,291 posts)11. These facts make me smile
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)12. K&R
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden