'No Malarkey': Biden could shock the pundits and win

[UncleNoel]

Andrew RomanoWest Coast Correspondent
,Yahoo News•December 3, 2019
https://news.yahoo.com/no-malarkey-biden-could-shock-the-pundits-and-win-215055718.html

Sorry for not snipping it up, no time to edit. But it is worth the read.

It’s been the Big Assumption driving the Democratic presidential primary, the thing that all the major players — from the savvy Sunday morning show pundits to the candidates themselves — have simply taken for granted: Joe Biden may be leading in the national polls now, but there’s no way he’s actually going to win the nomination.

It’s time to start wondering whether they’re wrong.

Consider the story so far. After months of speculation, the former vice president formally launched his 2020 bid on April 25. Observers described his rollout as “rocky” and said he had “stumbled” his way to the starting line. No matter — Biden immediately shot up to 41 percent in the national polls. The experts then said his bounce would fade amid further missteps. Not quite: It actually turned out to be “especially large compared with the post-launch bounces of other candidates.”

In the first round of debates, Kamala Harris eviscerated Biden over his resistance to federally mandated busing and his willingness to work with segregationists. Other racial fumbles — such as saying “poor kids” are just as bright as “white kids” — followed at a regular clip. But Biden’s national polling average never once dipped below 26 percent, or two points higher than his average in the three weeks leading up to his campaign kickoff, and whenever it fell at all, it would quickly rebound to about 30 percent.

Today Biden leads his closest national rival, Bernie Sanders, by more than 10 percentage points on average. Buoyed by the overwhelming support of black Democrats, he’s still polling at 27 percent.

Biden meets with residents of Storm Lake, Iowa. (Photo: Charlie Neibergall/AP)

As David Axelrod, former adviser to President Barack Obama, recently put it, “so many scenarios … are dependent on this idea that Biden is going to collapse.” It’s why a glut of relatively little-known centrists — Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado — remain in the race against all odds; they aspire to fill the void that will be left behind when Biden inevitably implodes. (Two who were in that category, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and former Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak, acknowledged reality and ended their campaigns over the weekend.) It’s why Harris and Cory Booker are still hanging on; they’re hoping to reap Biden’s support among blacks after his fall. It’s why Mike Bloomberg decided to jump in at the last minute. And it’s why Pete Buttigieg has rebranded himself as a pragmatic Midwestern moderate — to siphon off Biden backers in Iowa and ride the momentum of a strong finish there to victory in New Hampshire and beyond.

But as Axelrod went on to say, Biden and his fans have stubbornly refused to play along. “The Biden thing is the strangest thing I've ever seen in politics because the guy is up there in the air and everybody is just assuming he's going to come down,” Axelrod explained. “There is kind of a Mr. Magoo kind of quality to the whole thing, but he's still driving, you know? He's still moving forward. You worry that he's going to hit the wall at any given moment, but he hasn’t.”

Biden’s rivals will point out that the primaries take place in numerous states over several months, and that despite his impressive numbers in national polls he is in fourth place in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, behind Buttigieg, Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Biden’s support is a mirage, they argue. It’s all about name recognition and perceived electability. It vanishes wherever people are paying close attention. As soon as he loses the first two states, it’s going to vanish everywhere else. And another candidate will capitalize.

This has long been the prediction of Biden skeptics, and it’s still possible that it will come to pass. But the very durability of Biden’s support — particularly among older black voters — suggests another possible outcome. As the New York Times reported Monday, Biden doesn’t actually need to win Iowa or New Hampshire to accrue the 1,990 pledged delegates required to clinch the nomination. He simply needs to hold onto black voters in Southern states and urban areas.

If he does, Democratic Party rules will work in his favor. Districts with high concentrations of Democrats award more delegates, and black voters are overwhelmingly Democratic. The same is true of most urban areas in large states such as California and Texas, which both vote, along with Tennessee, Alabama, North Carolina and Virginia, on Super Tuesday (March 3). At that point, 38 percent of all pledged will have been allocated, making it difficult, if not impossible, for any candidate who isn’t at least close to the lead to catch up.

At the moment, Biden is on track to perform very well after Iowa and New Hampshire. In Nevada, he leads by nearly 10 points on average. In South Carolina, the last state to vote before Super Tuesday, he is currently averaging 35.3 percent in the polls — more than double his closest competitor. Among black voters there, Biden is ahead by 34 points. The latest surveys in California, Texas, North Carolina and Virginia also show him in the lead. And the last two national CNN polls showed Biden averaging 49 percent with black Democratic primary voters — “good enough,” notes Harry Enten, “not only for a 35-point lead over his Democratic competitors, but good enough to beat all of them combined by about 10 points.”

The question, then, is whether Biden’s voters will stick with him past his expected losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. If they do, he will be in position to arrive at Milwaukee’s Democratic National Convention next summer with more delegates than anyone else. And even if Biden’s backers are tempted to jump ship, where will they go? To Buttigieg, who is currently polling at zero percent among black Democrats in South Carolina and has repeatedly struggled to connect? To Harris or Booker, the two African-Americans in the race, who aren’t doing much better — and who are also barely registering in Iowa and New Hampshire? To Warren or Sanders, whom most older black voters consider too liberal and impractical to win?

Over the weekend, Biden launched an eight-day bus tour across Iowa. It will be his most extensive campaign swing to date, and with it he debuted a new slogan: “No Malarkey.” The reviews on Twitter (home to young anti-Biden progressives, both black and white) and in the press (which takes its cues from Twitter) were withering: “77-Year-Old Candidate Hopes ‘No Malarkey’ Bus Will Excite Voters,” New York magazine wrote snarkily.

It’s a familiar trope: The same old Biden — who’s been saying things like “malarkey” his entire political career — meets the usual chattering-class mockery. The pitch Biden is making this week in Iowa is familiar too: He is the only candidate who can “beat [Trump] like a drum” next November. Biden’s bet is that regardless of what happens in Iowa, more Democrats prefer the same old thing to something new. He has yet to be proven wrong.

Not really the same old thing, but a touch of the line that old wine, old shoes and old friends are the best things, as they say. Still, he is a progressive and the issues he has fought for are not the same old thing.

[hlthe2b]

1. Mika (Morning Schmoe) wanted so badly to be snide about the whole malarkey thing this AM

She brought it up expecting others to join in. They did not, but rather seemed to defend the concept--even suggesting it might be a positive. (including Joe Scab).... She looked rather sheepish and backed down.

I think so many voters, including Independents are desperate for some normalcy such that Biden's sincere malapropisms and homespun use of language is seemingly endearing and perhaps reassuring after Trump.

[Vogon_Glory]

2. No Malarkey May Not Be The Catchiest Slogan BUT

It should inspire enough of us reliably-voting old farts to go to the polls and vote againstTrump, Republicans, and Mal-archy (like kakistocracy except more malevolent).

[beachbumbob]

3. be no shock when Biden wins, thats why he was targeted after the 2016 election

he can win states that no other Democratic candidate has a chance to win from Warren to Sanders and NO state that he won't win that warren or sanders would win. The big fear is the huge blue wave and Biden's coat tails at every level from local to state to federal.

GOP knows it and those of us who have followed politics for 50 years know it.

[Demsrule86]

18. +1000 even some who support other candidates know it...one told me she doesn't care if

Biden could blow it out...she will settle for her candidate winning a close election...my response was ...what about the senate and the house? Not to mention, the GOP manages to steal close elections often.

[StevieM]

20. The last election wasn't going to be terribly close if it hadn't been for James Comey.

He helped them steal what was looking like a decisive election.

And somebody, like William Barr, will do everything they can to try to help them steal this one.

[Demsrule86]

22. All true. Barr is way worse.

[PatSeg]

4. Actually "No Malarkey"

could turn out to be a very clever and original choice. It is already showing up in headlines, which is how slogans catch on. Obviously if you hear "No Malarkey", you know it can't be about anyone but Joe. Every time a TV host or pundit repeats it, they are helping to reach more people. Most political slogans are so forgettable and often don't really mean anything.

[emmaverybo]

8. And we all know what it means now, don't we? Agree that Joe chose a slogan that fits him, for

one thing, stylistically, sums up his values, and is catchy because it is so original. I can’t remember most political slogans.

“Hip to be square,” as the song goes.

[PatSeg]

9. "Hip to be square"

Yeah, that really fits.

I sat here and tried to remember slogans from previous primaries and I could only come up with a random word or two. They are usually so generic and meaningless, they are forgettable. It needs to do more than just fit on a bumper sticker.

Back in 2016 when we didn't know if Joe was going to run, someone came up with "Riding with Biden". I loved that one and though it doesn't say a whole lot, it is obviously memorable.

"No Malarkey" is Joe and needs no explanation. Anyone who doesn't know what it means, will know before the week is out.

[The Valley Below]

5. I'd be very shocked if Biden doesn't win. The primary and the general.

Last edited Tue Dec 3, 2019, 02:23 PM - Edit history (1)

He's the man of the hour. Custom-made to defeat Trump and Americans love Joe.

They know his heart and they know his character.

He's got this.

[PatSeg]

10. Yes in spite of the pundits

who have rarely been kind to Joe. It is the voters that he has to appeal to, not cable news personalities (most voters don't even watch that much cable news anyway).

Welcome to DU! You sound like a long time Biden fan.

[The Valley Below]

11. I'm a third generation passionate liberal Democrat...

who has been active volunteering on Democratic campaigns since childhood.

For me, Joe Biden represents the great liberal tradition of our party. I feel like we need him, and he is answering the call.

The electoral college is not our friend. Especially with a strong economy heading into 2020. It will be a tough race in my estimation (although saying that makes me *shudder*).

But I believe Biden can take PA, MI, WI, FL, and AZ--while being true to the liberal ideology of our party.

[PatSeg]

14. I agree with you

I've never really viewed Biden as a moderate. Actually he was often more liberal than Obama. Maybe you hit the nail on the head, he is a "traditional Democratic liberal", but not a moderate as a rule. When he appears to be moderate, it is often when he compromises to achieve an outcome.

[The Valley Below]

15. When one gets stuff done, that's what I call a progressive.

Joe Biden is a liberal and a progressive.

With the long coattails I expect he'll have we could turn the Senate and pass a Public Option. That would be hugely progressive in my estimation.

[PatSeg]

17. Okay, I like that

I'm going to remember that when people say Joe isn't liberal enough. "When one gets stuff done, that's what I call a progressive."

There are a lot of very liberal Democrats that I agree with as a rule, but I disagree when they show no inclination to compromise. All or nothing usually means you end up with NOTHING. Personally, I am very liberal and idealistic, but I know one needs to be pragmatic as well, if they want to accomplish anything.

And yes, he has some very long coattails!

[wiley]

6. Today's endorsement

by Congressman Ami Bera (CA) of Joe Biden is huge. And well deserved. Unfortunately for Sanders and Warren their descent will continue. I expect Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Yang to keep rising however. I wish it was just "chattering-class mockery". Too much incredible factless, negative, ugly attacks on people running as Democrats.

[Peacetrain]

7. Sitting here in Iowa..,the start has been very good.. people from smaller towns are making their way

to the larger towns to see VP Biden.

[PatSeg]

12. My understanding

is Joe is much better in person than on TV. He really connects well with people.

[Peacetrain]

13. Oh my God he does... the one thing that age has

worked against him.. (it is not the gaffes etc.. that is forever Joe Biden..he has always been that way) is that with age his voice has gotten softer. Mine has too.. My voice is a lot softer.. so in person, close up, he is unbelievable. Makes him good in negotiations.. On a stage, it does not carry as well as the years have gone by. That is the one aging thing that I have seen with him

[PatSeg]

16. Yes, that is the one thing I've noticed as well

but I know the same Joe is still there and it comes out more close up. He looks people right in the eye, as makes people feel like they are the only person in the world. A friend of mine met him at Beau's funeral and in spite of his grief, he made her feel special.

[RhodeIslandOne]

19. Oh please

I am so tired of every candidate's fanbase saying the media is out to get them. And this group is the most annoying.

He has always been the favorite.

[Scurrilous]

21. ...