Here's a link that explains the math used to allocate delegates

[MineralMan]

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Math.phtml

in all states following their primary or caucus. It explains the 15% rule, and how it is used to allocate delegates when some candidates on the ballot do not receive at least 15% of the vote and are not eligible for pledged delegate allocation. To understand this fully, you need to understand how the individual state allocates delegates. It is usually a combination of districts and statewide delegates at large. However, in each situation only candidates who receive 15% or more of the vote get any delegates at all.

This page explains the math that is used, including information on rounding to ensure that whole number allocations are awarded.

If the process seems complicated, that's because it is, somewhat. Final delegate allocations do not occur in some states until that state's Democratic convention, so counts reported in the media can change somewhat. But, understanding how the math works will help you understand when counts seem off somewhat in reports.

If you're not interested in such details, you can ignore the link.

[George II]

1. For the most part, the 15% rule and vote proportions are pretty accurate, give or take...

...a delegate or two here and there.

What I do for a rough calculation is take the percentages of all the candidates 15% or above and add them, using the sum as "100%" of the delegates, then break them down by normalized %

For example in a state with 50 delegates:

Biden 30%, Sanders 20%, Warren 15%, the rest under 15%

30+20+15 = 65

Biden would get 30/65 X 50 delegates, or 23
Warren would get 20/65 X 50 delegates, or 15
Sanders would get 15/65 X 50 delegates, or 12

For the most part this works with minor differences because of the district aspects of the voting, but it's reasonably accurate to get an idea of how a candidate is doing.

[MineralMan]

2. Yes, that's the easiest way to do it, for sure.

That's pretty much how the news media does it, too. Depending on how many delegates there are to assign, though, the final calculations can shift the numbers enough to matter. In large states like California, for example, the final count can vary enough to make a difference in a close delegate count.

I'm not sure how close things will be in 2020, but the number of candidates on the early primary ballots, in particular, are going to lead to many primary candidates falling below that 15% mark. In some states, only two candidates might get over 15% of the vote. That's how delegate majorities can be realized, even with many candidates in the race.

For example, let's say that in some state, Biden gets 30% of the vote, Sanders gets 16% and Warren gets 14%. In that situation, Biden will end up with a majority of the delegates allocated. Warren gets none. When something like that happens, we're going to hear loudly from supporters of the candidate who just barely missed the 15% mark. I guarantee it.

Right now, we have one candidate who always has more than 15%, and two who sometimes drop below that 15% threshold. In some states one or the other of those two may not get any delegates at all.

Come the convention, it's still a tossup about whether one candidate will have a clear delegate majority. This all may come right down to the last few states that hold primaries.

Of course, as the early primaries are held, including the Super Tuesday primaries, many later voters will narrow their choices based on the results. That could make a huge difference.

[George II]

3. At one point in South Carolina Biden was the only one over 15%, so theoretically....

....he could have gotten all of the delegates. With some drop outs, Warren and Sanders have gotten slightly over 15%. But Biden still stands to get about 55% of the delegates.

[MineralMan]

4. Yup. The 15% rule in a crowded field of candidate can mean

a majority of delegates going to a candidate who got a minority of the total votes very easily. We're going to be hearing complaints about that system, I'm absolutely positive.

After the Super Tuesday primaries, of course, people are going to regulate their own votes in later primaries, so if there are three viable candidates left running, there may well be three-way divisions of delegate allocations and nobody with a majority in a particular state.

It's going to be very, very interesting to follow.

[comradebillyboy]

5. Math? Can any true progressive really trust Establishment Math with all

of its arcane rules and procedures? Big math must bend the knee to the popular will...

[MineralMan]

6. LOL!

Probably not.

[Gothmog]

7. I can provide a link to the document that contains all of the rules if you want

It is sort of legalize