Entering into 2020 the race looks to still be Biden's barring a major earthquake

[dsc]

He is still killing it with older AA voters and is still in first nationally, first in SC, first in NV, first in all but Iowa and NH. I know Obama was able to beat Clinton despite her lead but Obama was a special case. As the first viable AA candidate AA voters wanted to vote for him. They only needed some proof he could win. Iowa provided that. AA voters aren't clamoring to vote for any of the three alternatives as of right now. I don't see a Buttigieg victory in Iowa as changing that dynamic. I did see a Harris victory or even decent showing changing that dynamic, or at least possibly doing so, but that isn't happening. Sanders seems to be stable. Warren went up, then down, but seems to be back to stable. Biden is stable. 30% in the polling average with Sanders and Warren at 15% and Buttigieg at 9%. Maybe Iowa will change this but I honestly doubt this.

Biden's only discernible weakness is fundraising. We will know soon just how his Q4 went. But he is the least dependent upon fundraising of the big 4, he is a known quantity, can generate free press, and thus doesn't need ads or organization as much as the rest do. As long as he raises enough money to keep being able to travel he is OK.

[guillaumeb]

1. No matter who the candidate is, the key ingredient is enthusiasm for that candidate.

And our job as voters and activists is to create that enthusiasm by reminding voters exactly what is at stake.

And no matter who the candidate is, that candidate is not "the perfect candidate", mainly because the perfect candidate does not exist.

[underpants]

2. The money will come. Biden Harris with Obama appearances is the closest thing we have to a lock

Pete is great but this country simply isn't ready for him right now.

I love your post.

[dsc]

4. At general election time I am sure it will

most of Pete's donors will give to him if they aren't already as would Klobochar's, Booker's, Castro's, and Bennet's. Warren and Sanders probably some will some won't. No idea about Yang's and I think Gabbard's won't.

[DavidDvorkin]

3. And it will probably be settled well before the convention.