Something to consider with respect to Iowa...

[brooklynite]

Unlike New Hampshire, where a vote for a marginal candidate who gets less than 15% is essentially wasted, Iowa Caucus voters get two bite at the apple: after the first round, candidates without 15% support are dropped and their voters can join a second candidate group.

The latest Iowa Poll (12/12-12/16) has:

Buttigieg 24
Sanders 21
Warren 18
Biden 15
Klobuchar 4
Booker 3
Steyer 3
Yang 3
Gabbard 3
Castro 1
Other/Undecided 5

Where will those extra votes go? I'd say:
- Klobuchar goes 2/2 for Biden and Buttigieg
- Booker goes 2/1 for Biden and Buttigieg
- Steyer goes 2/1 for Biden and Buttigieg
- Yang goeds 2/1 for Sanders and Warren
- Gabbard goes 3 for Sanders
- Castro goes 1 for Warren

That gives us:
Buttigieg 28
Sanders 26
Biden 21
Warren 20

[Dennis Donovan]

1. Both IA and NH is *not* representative of the pop makeup of US overall

Neither should be party "bellwethers". They should be relegated to "Super Tuesday", if not later...

[hay rick]

2. Think you are wrong about Steyer and Gabbard.

I see Steyer support going more to Sanders and Warren. Gabbard support going primarily to Buttigieg.

[Dennis Donovan]

3. Gabbard support beelines to Putin, er, I mean Trump... or both?

OAAN loves them some Tulsi:

Link to tweet

[brooklynite]

9. If you visit our friends at JACK PINE RADICALS...

...they love Tulsi as much as Bernie.

[George II]

4. So then, for all the attention on Iowa, delegate-wise it breaks down to:

Buttigieg 12
Sanders 11
Biden 9
Warren 9

A difference of 3 delegates top to bottom (of ultimately more than 4,000)

[hay rick]

5. The delegate haul is a rounding error.

The real significance of Iowa is it redefines the media narrative going forward.

[brooklynite]

10. Correct

Warren coming in 4th (even a close 4th) will be a big story.

Anyone coming in 1st (even a close 1st) will also be a big story.

[Paka]

6. Bernie generally outperforms the polls in caucus states.

He is well positioned to win in Iowa no matter how all the under 15% votes line up.

[msongs]

12. yes the less truly democratic the process the better he does lol nt

[Paka]

14. There are those of us,

who think that the caucus is the more democratic process. It takes full involvement and real interaction. It's a lot less dependent on robotic action. It places emphasis on the informed voter.

[ritapria]

7. That sounds about right

Putting aside my preference for Bernie , I believe it is is very close between Mayor Pete and Bernie in Iowa … ...Mayor Pete is going after Joe , possibly indicating he's gaining some strength at Pete's expense in Iowa ...Why else would he go after him ? ..The No Malarkey Tour probably shored up Joe's support by 4% -5% ......Why hasn't there been more recent polling from Iowa ? ...Does the Holiday Season make accurate polling more difficult because people are spread about all over the country visiting family ? …… If Joe wins Iowa , it is all over ..He'll be the nominee ……….

[judeling]

8. That polls is pre-debate

And basically by this point of very little value as far as who is leading or in contention.

The other thing to remember is it is not 1 election but almost 1700. Which is why Iowa has a history of surprising results. If the national trackers are correct then Buttigieg is hurting himself in Iowa as it is his unfavorable that is rising. We need to see if that is reflected in the Iowa polls as they come out, but that indicates a decreased likelihood of him gaining support at the caucus as the second and other rounds start. The way that works is A candidate could indeed show 24% support in the first round but end up with much less as all those precincts where they fall below 15% get distributed.

[brooklynite]

11. Earlier polls are not radically different.

Yes, there could be a surprise in the next poll, but I can only work with the data I have.

[judeling]

13. The only other Post Novemeber Debate poll

Has Buttigieg in third at 18%.

We all speculate on way yo little data.