Project 538 as of this morning - Biden leads in all FOUR of the early states and nationally!!

[George II]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

[dware]

1. President Joe Biden!!!

Has such a nice ring to it.

[bluewater]

2. Old polls is the reason why

The DNC has actually been complaining that hardly any new polls have been posted lately, and that has become an issue for candidates trying to qualify for the January debate.

[Demsrule86]

6. These are not old polls...they were not included in those polls I posted yesterday.

[Thekaspervote]

10. Not old polls!! 538 doesn't do that... look at the graphic it says updated 16 hours ago

[bluewater]

12. They are updating their average.

[Demsrule86]

18. Using complex algorithms and national trends... to update polls where no new polls are available...

been doing it since 08...quite accurate...the method is on the website.

[Peacetrain]

3. My guess is the numbers in Iowa are higher than that

Lots of people finally coming to a solid decision and so many of them are choosing Biden.

[Demsrule86]

4. President Biden...when history of this campaign and the general election is written...this will be

the point when Biden begins to pull away... K&R And it looks like the polls I put out yesterday ...update without the new polls were on the money...he used national trends and a algorithms to update polls where no knew polls existed.

[ritapria]

5. The RCP Polling Averages don't show Biden leading in Iowa and NH

They show Joe in third place in both Iowa and NH ……. 14.3% in NH .....18.8% in Iowa...I am mystified by Nate Silvers analysis …

[George II]

7. When I pointed out RCP averages to someone yesterday, they said Project 538 was more "accurate"....

....so I guess the more accurate source is the one that shows one's candidate with better numbers.

[Demsrule86]

9. 538 updates older polls using other methods than adding new polls where none are available...

so yeah, they are updated using national trends, and formulas...but if we look at the all the polls the new ones as well as those at 530 yesterday, we see a trend. I doubt Biden is in fourth not that it ever mattered. It was always close enough.

[bluewater]

11. You are right, 538 and The Economist are both more accurate than RCP Polls.

The polls are what the polls are.

[LongtimeAZDem]

15. RCP is just a straight average of polls, regardless of methodology, sample size , or bias

FiveThirtyEight is a rolling average that drops stale data, and adjusts for other factors. Their methodology is clearly posted on their site.

[Demsrule86]

8. Not any more...only the pre-Christmas polling shows this...and I doubt it was true then.

[Thekaspervote]

13. Thx for posting!! Great numbers for Joe!!

[Demsrule86]

14. K&R and Thanks

[BannonsLiver]

16. But haven't you heard about the brokered convention fantasy one poster here has?

[George II]

17. There won't be a "brokered convention" in the manner that some dreamers hope. The first ballot....

....will be conducted routinely.

If no candidate gets a majority of the pledged delegates, then the 500 or so Super Delegates kick in.

I really can't see less than half voting for anyone other than Biden, probably more like 60-70%. And there's no way more than a sprinkling of "establishment Democrats" will vote for a candidate who has been bashing them for decades. Plus, there's no way an "establishment Democratic candidate" will release his/her delegates to one who has been bashing him/her for decades.

First or second ballot, it's going to be a Biden nomination!

[Tarheel_Dem]

19. This is comforting. n/t

[Lexblues]

20. I think this is Iran shit is scaring the crap out of people

And we know we need someone in the WH that knows world affairs on day one. Biden doesn't need training wheels.

[Hortensis]

21. Agree it's likely, and these polls came before the assassination.

Biden chaired the senate foreign affairs committee for years and worked extensively on ME affairs under Obama. I'm interested in what the next polls say.

I'm also expecting Iran to interfere in the election against Biden just as they did against Hillary, and for exactly the same reasons. Under sane and competent Democratic leadership, the U.S. has been very effective in containing Iran's religious and military imperialism.