The Real Battle in the Primary Race Is for Second Place

[MineralMan]

As we get closer to the early primary events, it's good to watch the polls closely. What should you look for? Look for people who are hovering around 15% in those early primary polls. Why? Because you get no delegates to the convention if you are below that percentage in the actual voting. If you get no delegates, you're out of the running.

By the time the South Carolina primary vote count is in, most of the current Democratic primary candidates will be out. They will have zero delegates at the convention, and will have no path to the nomination. It's a simple matter of numbers.

Then, when the Super Tuesday primaries are held, there's a strong likelihood that the results on March 4 will reveal just two candidates with enough delegates to continue campaigning. It could possibly be three, but it's more likely to be just two left to carry on until the convention.

Second place is what to watch. Joe Biden has held at about 30% in the national polls for some time now. He'll be going to the convention as the strongest contender, based on the early primaries. But, who will his challenger be? That's the interesting question, really.

15%. Watch that number and compare it to the primary results. That will be the threshold. By March 4, the rest of the nation's voters will be deciding which of two or three people remaining to vote for. Where will the support of all of those candidates who didn't make 15% go? Answer that question and you'll know who the Democratic nominee will be.

[bluewater]

1. No the real battle is to avoid a brokered convention.

Biden, Sanders, Warren and Bloomberg all have the money to stay in the race forever and all four are capable of meeting the 15% threshold to get delegates.

It is going to be an uphill struggle for anyone to get enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.

[MineralMan]

2. Not really. As you'll see when the March 3 ballots are finally counted,

that will not be the battle.

[bluewater]

3. Yes really. As You'll see when the March 3 ballots are finally counted,

no candidate will have a majority of the delegates assigned.

God, it's fun being so definitive. lol

Time will tell.

[beastie boy]

10. No, really. Theoretically possible, but very unlikely.

First, brokered conventions are a rare event. All the brokering, when it is necessary, is usually done behind the scenes prior to the convention. Second, a brokered convention is highly unlikely unless there are more than two candidates running. As time goes by, the likelihood of this happening diminishes exponentially. Third, if any of the contestants at the convention don't get the aforementioned 15% in two or three states, which is pretty likely given where the candidates stand today, they are out of running for all practical purposes. They will not be in a position to get near the number of pledged delegates to challenge the front runner on the first ballot. Fourth, the delegates of the candidates who drop out of the race before the convention tend to pledge themselves to the front runner at the convention. Fifth, it is the job of the DNC to avoid a brokered convention if at all possible. The pressure of the DNC on the delegates will be in favor of the front runner as well. Sixth, the superdelegates also tend to favor the front runner.

Don't know about you, but I would feel pretty confident betting a buck on no brokered convention.

Having fun being so definitive yet?

[bluewater]

15. Yes, really. Bloomberg makes a brokered convention VERY likely.

Biden, Sanders, Warren and now Bloomberg all have the money to stay in the race to the end. And all four are capable of meeting the 15% threshold to be assigned delegates.

Since that 15% threshold is done on a district by district basis, candidates do not even have to get 15% statewide to be assigned some delegates.

It's hard to imagine how with four strong campaigns like these that any single candidate can get enough delegates to win on the first ballot.

Brokered convention, baby! Remember, you heard that first here.

[Gothmog]

19. So far Bloomberg is not at 15%

Yes, Bloomberg is not worried about money but he will need to get delegates to be viable

[bluewater]

25. True, but Super Tuesday is in MARCH.

And Bloomberg is saturating the Super Tuesday states with some very good Democratic adds.

Time will tell, but I certainly would not bet against Michael reaching that 15% threshold at this rate.

[beastie boy]

34. No, really. Having money to stay in the race has nothing to so with challenging the frontrunner.

Once again, and pay attention this time: the 15% rule is only one factor that plays into the uncontested convention. And even in the case of the 15% rule, you are wrong. Each state has both pledged district delegates, pledged statewide delegates and superdelegates. Only the pledged district delegates can potentially go to the loser of the statewide primary, and only if that loser gets more than 15% of the district vote. The rest, including superdelegates, go to the winner, even if the winner gets 16% of the statewide vote. And "some delegates", as you refer to them, are a precious few to challenge the front runner at the convention.

I tend to discount Bloomberg altogether, since he already failed to file for the primary races in several states. Considering his logistical blunders, I don't even know why he is running. Sanders and Warren are competing for the same voter base, so I don't see how both of them can stay in the race. So I can't imagine how four campaigns, let alone four strong campaigns can all make it to a brokered convention.

Still wanna bet a buck on a brokered convention, baby?

[bluewater]

35. SUPER DELEGATES dont vote on the first ballot anymore.

Read the rules.

[beastie boy]

38. So?

You can only argue this point, however unconvincingly, only if more than one candidate can conceivably make 50% on the second ballot. Do you really see this happening? Do you seriously think anyone will, or will be looked upon favorably by the DNC to challenge the front runner at the convention knowing full well they will lose on the second ballot? Only a self-centered fool will do that, at the expense of his standing in the Democratic Party, only to lose anyway.

WTF does me re-reading the rules have to do with this?

[bluewater]

40. Michael Bloomberg could get enough super delegates on the second ballot, so could Biden.

Boom. Brokered convention right there.

And Michael Bloomberg is a BILLIONAIRE and doesn't care what the DNC would think of him if he takes his chance for the presidential nomination to a brokered convention.

If it looks like both Bloomberg and Biden are staying in, then certainly Sanders and most likely Warren will also stay in for a brokered convention. Simply because no one could be sure how a brokered convention will finally be resolved.

Boom. Brokered convention.



But hey, thanks for the discussion. Feel free to disagree, but the proof will be in the pudding after the actual voting.

Enjoy your day.

[beastie boy]

48. With all the primaries he is skipping, Bloomberg is unlikely to make a dent.

I think Bloomberg is running for a VP spot anyway.

And the way things are going, Biden is the likely front runner. Call me silly, but I don't think Biden will challenge himself for the second ballot. Sanders is the only potential challenger, but he is weak. Weaker than he was against Hillary.

So all the smilies notwithstanding, my one buck bet against a brokered convention still stands. Let me know if you are confident enough in your prediction to take it.

[bluewater]

50. I'll take the bet.

But lets make the stakes a public mea culpa here on DU, less hassle handling the transaction.

Something of the form when asked : "I was soooo wrong and you are a political genius, how could I ever have doubted your keen insight... blah blah blah."

Deal?

[beastie boy]

51. You got it.

In fact, I am publicly conceding half of it to you right now with no strings attached: you are a friggin political genius with the keenest of insights I ever saw! And don't even get me started on your brilliant use of smilies!

As far as me being wrong, let's wait until the convention. The "blah blah blah" part is negotiable.

[bluewater]

52. In all seriousness

strategic use of the emojis is an art form.

Amateurs go all in with the



but the true coup de grace is the

[beastie boy]

53. Brilliant!

Hey, I told you not to get me started on the smilies!

[bluewater]

54. another pro-tip

I always post as if every single person that ever responds to me is actually the same person.



wink wink

nudge nudge

[beastie boy]

58. So do I

Wink, wink. My regards to Rudy Colludie!

[bluewater]

59. As you should.

And please don't go "inactive" for years again, if you lose the bet. lol

wink wink

[beastie boy]

60. You already have one half of my dollar bill.

So there is no way I can go back on the bet!

[BannonsLiver]

61. Don't worry I've made note of all the BC fantasy posts

There won’t be any shortage of accountability (LOL) when it doesn’t happen though I suspect those pushing that fantasy will simply disappear into the ether when their hope does not come to fruition.

[bluewater]

63. Hey, like clockwork.

lol

[HeartlandProgressive]

64. You seem to have an avid follower

of your posts.

[HeartlandProgressive]

65. "ive made a note of all the BC fantasy posts"

Well, bless your heart, you very nice person you.

[bluewater]

66. I don't think you should call people "sweetie"

[HeartlandProgressive]

67. Perhaps you are right, even though I call everyone that.

sigh

Let me change that.

[HeartlandProgressive]

68. You seem to really bring out the best in people.

I admire that and your patience.

You are a modern day Ghandi, a regular secular saint, Bluewater.

[bluewater]

69. lol

Don't get me in trouble.

[BannonsLiver]

70. You're welcome.

[Demsrule86]

55. It doesn't work that way...the supers will vote for the candidate with the most delegates...on the

second ballot...as they should. This was put in place in order to prevent a brokered convention which causes us to lose everytime.

[bluewater]

57. A candidate needs about 38% of the delegates for SUPER DELEGATES to get them the win.

I did the math on that a while back, but it's around 37-38% of the pledged delegates must already be won for a candidate to be put over the finish line if they get ALL the super delegate votes.

With four strong candidates staying in the race to the very end, getting even 38% of the delegates will be a close thing.

[Demsrule86]

71. You are kiddingyourself...Joe will have won convincingly and have more than needed....Warren will

be out already and Sanders will be stayinging with no shot. We don't have four strong candidates...after Iowa and New Hampshire...where do Warren and Buttigieg go? They won't win delegates in diverse states or in the mid west...neither will Sanders but he always stays in too long.

[NYMinute]

44. Bloomberg is running so Biden can win

He is spending all his ad dollars to defeat the ultra left. He can do so legally without campaign finance laws interfering.

Bloomberg has no interest in becoming POTUS.

[bluewater]

47. Bloomberg seems to be running so Buttigieg will not win.

Bloomberg jumped into the race when Mayor Pete was really starting to climb up in the polls. If Buttigieg got the nomination, Trump would win.

But I see your point that he would also want to head off Sanders or Warren, they might be able to beat Trump, but they are anti-1%.

And Bloomberg would DEFINITELY enjoy being President, especially the first Jewish President. It would be a historic achievement.

[MineralMan]

20. Good analysis, I think.

There was a lot of "brokered convention" chatter back in 2016, too. Mostly wishful thinking on some people's parts, I think.

[BannonsLiver]

62. The BC fantasy comes up just about every cycle.

Here’s the rub: It never happens.

[Demsrule86]

23. And who will that help or hurt...I have thought about a tie also...but where do the delegates come

for Warren or Buttigieg moving forward...they don't poll well with AA voters in more diverse states...once we move out of small white states where do they go? Sanders has a core that will follow him to the ends of the earth...he may not win but he can stay in. I don't see the same for either Buttigieg or Warren.

[bluewater]

31. You forget Warren is the only woman in that group clearing the 15% threshold.

That will help her stay with the pack.

Buttigieg is a spent force after the caucus states and New Hampshire, he won't end up with many delegates at all.

[NYMinute]

46. Wishful thinking is wonderful and free of cost. nt

[Demsrule86]

56. Wishful thinking by the time diverse states vote...she will be down in terms of delegates...she

has no AA support and will not be our nominee. Biden may have it wrapped up on March 4th. And the fact that she is a woman has no bearing on how super delegates will vote...they will as always vote for the candidte with the most delegates as they should...it reflects the will of the primary voters. Ther is also the possibility that she won't hit 15% in Iowa.

[Peacetrain]

4. I think you are absolutely right... there will be no brokered convention

and right now if I were going to make a guess for second, I could see two people really in contention. Warren, Buttigieg, I will be really interested how Klobauchar is going to play.. she is getting a lot of second looks here, but honestly I do not know how she is playing in other states.

[Thekaspervote]

5. Yup! Even looking at the numbers now, one can see there will not be a brokered convention

[George II]

6. Your last paragraph is the REAL battle. If you don't get to 15% you don't get delegates....

It's that simple. And two or three are at risk of not getting any delegates in at least one state, some even two states.

[MineralMan]

7. Yes. That's always the battle in primary races.

The other factor, though, is all of those candidates who have no chance whatsoever of reaching 15% Their supporters are going to have to shift to other candidates real soon now. By Super Tuesday, a substantial list of current candidates will become irrelevant, forcing voters to narrow their options considerably for the Super Tuesday vote. After March 3, the choices will be even fewer.

Nobody likes to throw their vote away, and that's especially true in the low-turnout primary elections. So there are all those candidates with less than 10% of the vote, who will not be part of the rest of the primary season. Where will their supporters go? Where will people who support Klobuchar, Yang, and the others go?

I wish I knew, but I don't.

[George II]

8. My guess is that many of the supporters of candidates like Klobuchar, Booker, Bennet, etc....

...being traditional Democratic Senators and office holders, will shift their support to Joe Biden. He's the candidate with the longest, most successful record in government of all the others.

In times like this, many won't want to risk their support or vote on an unknown.

[MineralMan]

9. Yes, I think you're right. Those candidates, like Joe Biden

are more or less centrists when it comes to Democratic politics. Klobuchar certainly is, from my own knowledge of her politics.

Yang is off the line completely, really, so it's hard to tell where his supporters might go.

Bloomberg's supporters will choose Biden, as well, I'm sure. I'm not even sure Bloomberg is a Democrat, really.

[George II]

12. Bloomberg was a Democrat all his life. The only reason he switched in 2001 is because...

...of the nature of Democratic politics in NYC. As a Democrat he had no chance of getting the mayoral nomination, so he switched parties.

What disappointed me about him was that, for political expedience, he embraced the republican party more than he should have for a few years. But as Mayor his policies would be more aligned with the Democratic Party than the republicans (I know, someone will jump on this and say "what about stop and frisk?", but that was ONE policy, not the driving mission of his mayoral career)

When he ran for re-election in 2005, he had the backing of a number of very prominent Democrats. And halfway through that second term he switched from being republican to independent and won his third term as an independent (even though the republicans listed him on their line of the ballot)

So, he was a republican, in name, for only six years. Looking at his entire life, he's been a Democrat longer than at least two of the older Democrats in the race. In fact, disregarding age, he was a Democrat longer than any other candidate other than Joe Biden.

[MineralMan]

16. OK. I still don't see him as a viable candidate, frankly.

I think he'll spend a lot of money, but I don't think that will translate to votes. He came in too late.

[Thekaspervote]

18. Agree!!

[George II]

37. Probably not, but I just wish those (not you) who bash him as not a "Democrat"....

....would look at the facts and see that he's been a better Democrat, and a longer Democrat, than some of the candidates whose supporters are bashing him the most.

[Demsrule86]

26. I don't care for Bloomberg and stop and frisk...ends his chances. We have a core AA voting block.

[Gothmog]

21. I agree

There is no way that these real democrats will end up supporting sanders

[judeling]

11. We really know nothing about the state of the Race

Until we get some early state polls we are working with air.

Right now any of 4 or 5 candidates look like they could finish anywhere from 1st to 5th in Iowa.
The order will inform New Hampshire which will inform Nevada which will inform South Carolina.

Until the Iowa Debate we really cannot make any good predictions. Iowa is likely to winnow at least one or two and that very easily could include Bloomberg.

[MineralMan]

17. We do know some things about the race.

That said, we will know much more on March 4, which is not very long from now, really.

Watch and we'll see.

[BootinUp]

13. B4 a single vote is cast? R u sure because

I seem to recall some pretty late race changes in recent contests. I think Biden is showing some strength. Wish it were more.

[MineralMan]

14. I'm pretty sure, yes.

So, who do you think Buttigieg's supporters will switch to when it comes time to switch?

[floppyboo]

22. Exception: Bill Clinton

wouldn't have qualified in IA under new rules, so we'll see if Biden can make it. LOL
Originally had NH in this post, but checked it out, and he did get over 15% in NH. I heard differently this morning, and should have double checked first.

But I don't think we can compare past primaries and the rules then to now. Hence my Clinton reference. He came second in NH but got a delegate split of 9 each with Paul Tsongas.

[MineralMan]

28. That doesn't answer the question I asked, though.

I'm not sure what context you're addressing, actually.

[floppyboo]

30. I was writing in the context of winning 15%.

And suppose I was being defensive, because everyone up thread has failed to mention that according the the 1st 2 states, Bernie has the best chance of coming out on top.
So the battle for second is going to be really hard to predict until after super tuesday.
And I think its going to be super close. Wouldn't put money on it! Although, I would hedge towards a brokered convention.

Bloomberg? I wonder if his money allowing him to escape debate scrutiny is to his advantage? Weird.

[MineralMan]

32. Delegate Count - Once Again

Iowa is looking like a wash to me, with four candidates sharing the small number of delegates from Iowa fairly evenly. So, it doesn't matter all that much, really.

New Hampshire? I think Biden comes out on top there, but there will still be delegates for probably four candidates.

Nevada and South Carolina? Biden wins both, with maybe 3 candidates getting some delegates.

Then, all that early stuff is over. A few days after South Carolina, Super Tuesday happens. Watch the delegate count after that date.

Only the delegate count matters for the 2019 primaries. On March 4, you will see who is left standing when you look at that delegate count. Nothing else matters, as you will discover.

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D

Bookmark the page.

[floppyboo]

36. Biden comes out on top in NH?? Wow!

Anyways, we shall see.
It's more of an objective thing for me. Being a non-voter. Yes, I prefer Sanders, as does most of the international politically involved community, but I also with every ounce of my being, support getting rid of 45. And sure hope the senate is blue!!!

[MineralMan]

39. I see. I didn't know you were Canadian.

Thanks for being interested in our elections here in the USA...

[floppyboo]

43. The world is watching. I am not alone!

So much I think is hopeful. You think you have baggage! Haha

[MineralMan]

45. I imagine the word IS watching.

But, we're the ones voting. We're the ones living with our elections. It's good to watch. It's better to be part of the process.

[floppyboo]

49. I'm a mom. I like to encourage people!

Do the right thing, love your neighbour and all that!
Was happy Obama endorsed Trudeau in our last election. That effer Scheer was going to implement mandatory service. I have 4 enlistable boys. You think Canada would ditch American efforts, no matter who was in charge?

Edit: btw - did you know Trump peeps were hired by Scheer and Alberta Conservative leaders to spread disinformation in our elections? Very very bad.

[LongtimeAZDem]

42. "most of the international politically involved community"

[Demsrule86]

29. Bill Clinton lost both New Hampshire and Iowa but won the nomination and the presidency...saving us

from 16 years of GOP rule giving us two picks on SCOTUS.

[MineralMan]

33. Indeed he did.

[George II]

41. Correct, but the 15% rule was in effect back in 1992. Bill Clinton only had 3% in the Iowa Caucus..

...and he got zero delegates. Iowa in 1992 was a unique situation. "Favorite Son" Tom Harkin wound up with 77% of the votes and all of the delegates. No

But Clinton got 25% in New Hampshire, splitting the 18 delegates 9-9 with Tsongas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

[Hortensis]

72. Hope everyone reads this about the 15% etc. Knowing how

the process works makes observing much more fun and interesting -- and makes voters far less vulnerable to manipulation by lying liars.

[Baclava]

24. Forget the polls, VOTE!

Vote, vote, vote!

That will determine everything

I hath spoken

lol

[MineralMan]

27. Well, yes. Everyone here will vote.

The trick is to get everyone who is not here to vote. That should be our own individual goal.

[Gothmog]

73. If biden does as projected in Iowa and NH, he will have fun in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

74. In order to cancel out Biden's massive lead in the south, Bernie needs huge leads with white voters

Link to tweet