Nate Silver: Biden has been *leading the whole campaign* and rarely been covered like it.

[highplainsdem]

Twitter thread from Nate this morning, with the quote in the thread title in the third tweet. Thread starts here, full text below:

Link to tweet

Biden and Bernie have each gained ~2 points over the past month, which ain't nothing, but also isn't that much. And their current standing is pretty consistent with where they've been on average throughout the campaign…


…so the notion that Biden and/or Bernie are now making comebacks, which has become a common motif in campaign coverage, is semi-dubious. A big part of the story is they were somewhat ignored while the media chased shinier objects (e.g. Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, Bloomberg).


Trying not to make this too hindsight-is-20/20. There were reasons to be bullish on Harris. Warren and Buttigieg still have decent chances. The fluctuations in polls aren't super predictable. But Biden has been *leading the whole campaign* and rarely been covered like it.

[George II]

1. And yet we don't see any Biden supporters whining about some mythical "Biden Blackout".....

It is what it is. Biden supporters can accept the ebb and flow of media coverage.

[PatSeg]

6. I suppose it could be

because we've seen it before. Biden frequently has been ignored or dismissed by the mainstream media. Also his many accomplishments as Vice President have gotten little public notice. And yet, he does not give up and his supporters remain loyal.

[LakeArenal]

7. His base, of which I am one,

Is solid. We are not budging no matter what at this point.

If money starts sliding, we will send more in. If dumb ancient or over-blown scandal comes in, we’ll step up.

[PatSeg]

11. The support I'm seeing

is overwhelming and long overdue. I am so happy for him, he has earned this support and admiration.

[emmaverybo]

10. I am a big Biden fan, yet until this year knew few specifics about his VP accomplishments and just

how powerful a VP he was.

[PatSeg]

12. I think most people are unaware

of those accomplishments. He is a real class act and is much more humble than most people realize.

[emmaverybo]

14. His humility is affecting. He was willing to publicly stay background during Obama's tenure

although he had insisted in taking the job on that he have a great deal of access to the president and be in on the important day to days.

[PatSeg]

25. Yes

He was a very involved vice president. It was a rather unique relationship. Meanwhile, Obama was in the limelight most of the time and his VP got so little credit.

[Doitnow]

17. Maybe because there hasn't been any blackout for Biden!!

[LongtimeAZDem]

21. There hasn't been any blackout for anyone. Some candidates whine about their coverage, some don't

[Hekate]

23. This

[DownriverDem]

19. You do know

that Biden is the one that can win enough states to beat trump, right?

[Thekaspervote]

2. K&R

[beastie boy]

3. Thanks for the post, and thanks to Nate for the first level-headed article I've seen in a long time.

I am so damn tired of all the sensational "surging" and "tanking" headlines circulating all over the media!

[Thekaspervote]

5. Me too!! EW and bernie exchange 1-2 pts and they're the "ascendant" candidate

[ismnotwasm]

4. This is why I'm resigned (in kind of a good way) to Biden being the nominee

Yeah he’s another older, white male, out of generations of older white men, but I’m not going to be upset when he gets the nomination.

I like Amy Klobuchar as well, liked Julian Castro, loved Kamala Harris. But, I am ok with Biden. I always saw him as the most likely nominee-from a purely practical stance-and nothing on the horizon seems to be changing that.

[DownriverDem]

20. How about

Biden/Harris or Biden/Abrams?

[Indykatie]

24. I Think Biden/Kobuchar is the More Likely Ticket n/t

[emmaverybo]

27. No. Biden will choose a woman of color.

[The Valley Below]

33. Me too.

She'd help secure the win.

She'd be the best person to help move legislation through the Senate (post-victory).

And she seem like the the best partner for Biden to trust with big projects.

Those are the essential elements of Biden's VP choice. Amy ticks all the boxes in my estimation.

[MH1]

8. And Sanders has basically stayed level.

Despite some noise out there trying to claim otherwise.

I don't see how Sanders increases his share by much; if Biden crashes for some reason, few of his supporters will go to Sanders.

If Sanders were a decent human being with any perspective, he would stop f*cking around and support the person best to carry his message forward (probably Warren). Then together they might have a chance for those ideas to make it to the White House.

n.b.: I supported Sanders in the 2016 primary after O'Malley was out (I was ABH b/c the RW had 30 ys of smearing Hillary). Supported HC in the GE of course, and will again support the nominee whoever it is.

[Gothmog]

9. Nate is correct

The press has been trying to make this into a close contests and horse race. Joe is the leader and has not been covered as a leader

[emmaverybo]

13. Glad that everyone not as dismissive of this extremely accomplished and inspiring man (read

his books) as the press. Biden has a solid following and I dare say the widest appeal across the political spectrum and demographic groups of any candidate. His AA support alone should be important to liberals and not as a matter of mere expedience to the party.

[rainy]

30. No one has voted yet and whoever is leading

in polls now can and usually does change as history has shown. No Democrat is being fairly covered.

[SCVDem]

37. Yeah right!

The character assassination has just started.

Make up some good shit!

On edit: Dump didn't ask Ukraine to mess with anyone else except V.P. Joe Biden.

Ask yourself WHY?

[peggysue2]

15. LOL!!

But Biden has been *leading the whole campaign* and rarely been covered like it.

Ya think???

How many obituaries have we read? How many times have we been told the numbers are all about name recognition? How many predictions have captured headlines, all shouting out Biden's certain demise?

Could things change? Of course.

However, the endless excuses and/or dismissal of the voter preferences, electability expectations and the basic issue of trust have not changed the polling, numbers (that Silver clearly points out) have indicated a consistent, durable Biden lead.

Nice to see an admission of the obvious. Strip away all the noise and the numbers remain. Stable, steady.

[NYMinute]

16. So true ... Biden almost never gets positive coverage nt

[SCVDem]

38. We go high!

No sniveling or whining!

We leave that to the orange ass! What a fucking disgrace.

The sooner he is removed the faster we can rebuild our foreign policy!

[SCVDem]

18. Biden's campaign

Isn't flinging poo as the other attack candidates are choosing to do.
Always the high road!

The others would be well advised not to sling shit!

[Thekaspervote]

31. Amen to that!! We've seen this several times this primary season

[maxrandb]

22. If CNN and MSNBC covered Biden like they did Donnie Short Fingers

They'd be showing empty podiums with a Biden 2020 sign for hours as we sheeple listened to the pundits breathlessly prognosticate about what he might say.

[rainy]

26. They don't cover any Democratic

candidates until it’s negative. Then they cover them. Have yet to see an amazing speech by a Democrat being covered and discussed!

[emmaverybo]

28. Biden's wonderful speech in which he sounded themes other candidates are now picking up on

was covered and well-praised. It was stirring! It was inspired!

Snip————————————

Joe Biden reminded all of us of what a presidential president would sound like

In a fiery and blunt speech slamming the tenor, tone and words of President Trump as the nation reels from white nationalist domestic terrorism, former vice president Joe Biden reminded all of us of what a presidential president sounds like. His words were stirring. His delivery was passionate. And they were befitting a man who kicked off his campaign with a video decrying Trump’s shameful response to Charlottesville.
This is no knock on the other Democratic presidential candidates, particularly Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), who gave his own speech on Wednesday at the historic Mother Emanuel church in Charleston, S.C., where a white supremacist murdered nine African American parishoners in 2015. All of the candidates have a moral core and fundamental senses of decency and empathy that Trump never
possessed. Yet, unlike teleprompter Trump’s hollow remarks about the carnage in El Paso and Dayton, Ohio, Biden came at his speech in Iowa with an authority that is hard to match.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/07/joe-biden-reminded-all-us-what-presidential-president-would-sound-like/

[Thekaspervote]

32. We need Joe..calm, steady, critical thinker

[Mike Nelson]

29. I'm not sure I know what...

... being covered like the front-runner means. I would have said he is most often covered as the front-runner! The media do, however like close races and will often jump on a surge... saw that with attention given to Harris, Warren, Pete... now, Bernie is getting that "second look" attention coverage. Biden does well, I think - steady acknowledgment as the national front-runner.

[The Valley Below]

34. I'm highly enthusiastic about having Joe Biden as our nominee

and our next president.

I'm all in and with total enthusiasm!

[emmaverybo]

35. Count me in. I am soooooooo enthusiastic. A President Biden would be for me a dream come true

and I think for the nation and the world.

l

[The Valley Below]

36. Imagine the global sigh of relief.

Can you feel it?

[emmaverybo]

41. Honestly can. "Global sigh of relief" excellent!

[SCVDem]

39. Nothing against HRC

Biden did not contest in 2016 due to the death of his son.

Anybody have a problem with that?

Healing over, Let's rock!

[David__77]

40. I think that sort of happened to Trump in 2016

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

I don’t know that that’s unique to this case.

[Tarheel_Dem]

42. K&R

[Hortensis]

43. Silver reports the obvious, which includes his own contemptible spins.

This is an example from last August:

"If you’ve been following our coverage of the Democratic primary, you’ll know that I don’t think much of media really understands Joe Biden’s popularity among Democrats. That doesn’t mean that Biden is destined to win the primary. In fact, I’d regard him as an underdog relative to the field..."

An underdog.

And to support his own Biden-as-underdog trash theme, he starts out with pseudo-analytic spin dotted with phrases like "rebounds," "expected demise," "disconnect" between rosy polls and reality. And then takes that to Iowa, using polls there to support his theme of a national underdog. He protects his reputation by putting more honest discussion lower or wrapping it around with spin. It's not all garbage, more like a briefcase accidentally thrown into a dumpster and spilling open with papers flying all over.

This is how he ends, btw. Headlines and then beginnings and endings takeaways are the best places to quickly discern bias. And the plentiful slurs he includes but carefully attributes to others are just slurs in articles like this.

"Biden may already be trailing in Iowa, in fact. ... Still, the story is a lot more complicated than a cliched narrative about voters choosing heart (Warren/Sanders) over head (Biden), or voting for Biden only through gritted teeth. ...

So, the candidate who always to that point defined "first tier," with no one else coming close, even briefly, portrayed as a loser underdog who just hasn't started showing it yet. Except to experts like him. And more of same sort of thing every month since.

[Gothmog]

44. I agree with Nate

Link to tweet

[Cha]

45. KR!