Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBill Scher, Politico: Iowa Matters Less Than Ever in 2020
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/09/iowa-caucus-democrats-2020-096337-snip-
In the new year, with the caucuses rapidly approaching, no candidate (save for Delaney) is embarking on an Iowa-or-bust strategy. Back in 2008, between Dec. 1 and the caucuses on Jan. 3, the top candidates spent at least 23 of the campaigns final 34 days in Iowa. But this month, Buttigieg isnt scheduled to return until Jan. 12, and in the meantime has spent three days in the Super Tuesday state of Texas. After a couple of days in Iowa at the start of the year, Klobuchar went to Nevada and New Hampshire. Sanders left last Sunday and wont be back until this Friday. For the first half of the month, Warren is campaigning in the state only on the weekends, while last Tuesday she held a rally with Julián Castro in New York. Biden hasnt been to Iowa since Sunday, relying for now on a bus tour of surrogates.
To borrow the language of Drew Magary, a columnist for Mediums Gen magazine who recently complained about Iowas excessive influence in presidential politics, why arent Iowas trucker-hat voters who, by now, probably have Jake Tapper on speed dial being fussed over as much as in the past?
Because the Democratic National Committee wanted it this way, and engineered changes to the process that have sharply reduced the influence of the Iowa caucuses, along with New Hampshires first-in-the-nation primary. Beginning in 2008, the first two states have been quickly followed by Nevada and South Carolina, and soon after that, by a quasi-national primary on Super Tuesday.
The belief that Iowa was a must-win state was always overhyped. Most of the time in the modern primary era, going back to the 1980s, the winner of Iowa in either party hasnt been able to muster enough momentum to win the next contest in New Hampshire. And today, the sheer breadth of the Super Tuesday map, along with the compressed timetable, has persuaded candidates to crisscross the country, hunting for votes as well as dollars.
Advocates of a national primary, rejoice!
-snip-
Its true that Iowa remains the most frequently visited state, even if its being visited less. And theres a serious problem thats raised many Iowa critics: that the states nearly all-white electorate is insufficiently diverse. The chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, Gilberto Hinojosa, blamed Castros demise on #IowaSoWhite, telling POLITICO, How you fare in Iowa and New Hampshire sets the tone for how your campaign continues, and when you have these two states that in no way represent the diversity of the Democratic Party, it makes it very difficult for minority candidates to get momentum.
Perhaps the first state in the presidential nominating process should look more like America. But Hinojosas critique ignores the impact of the DNCs new polling criteria to earn a spot on the debate stage. Candidates do not necessarily have to perform well in Iowa and New Hampshire. A modicum of support in South Carolina, which has a majority-black Democratic electorate, or in Nevada, which has a significant Latino population, scores you an invite.
-snip-
The fact that, at this point, the Democratic Party is almost certain to nominate a white person is not evidence that voters of color outside of Iowa have been silenced. In fact, African American voters are the main reason Biden has been a mostly steady frontrunner, and Latino voters are a big part of why Sanders remains in contention.
None of this should end the debate about Iowas and New Hampshires placement on the primary calendar. But it should inform the debate. The DNCs schedule changes have changed the way the candidates have campaigned, and they have increased the influence that nonwhite voters outside of Iowa have on the presidential nominating process. We can debate whether the current arrangement strikes the right balance, but we shouldnt act as if there isnt any balance at all.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)How did I get those numbers - I turned the current polling results upside down.
Big upsets matter, in IA and elsewhere. Pretending otherwise is mendacious.
If Biden had a huge lead in IA polling, we would not be seeing these OPs. Them's the facts.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)now were to win, or Biden were to come in 4th.
Neither will happen.
The delegates in the first couple of states will be divvied up fairly evenly among the top candidates, judging by the polls. Pundits will note that those states aren't representative. And then it's on to Nevada and SC, where Biden will do better.
And btw, the Politico article this OP is about was not written only because Biden doesn't have a huge lead in Iowa. That's ridiculous.
It's a thoughtful piece explaining why this year's different.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)HRC in third. The frontrunner by miles humiliated. It changed the course of the election. That's my point, a big upset in IA would be as significant this year as it was in 2008.
Amy 2nd or Biden 4th? "Neither will happen"? I'll quote Obama on Caucus night "They said it was impossible".
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)He's going to be the nominee.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)by the way some folks recount 2008. He did a lot of work over 2 months, but he was narrowly ahead of HRC in the polling averages before candidate realignment was factored in.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)A lot of candidates and their supporters are about to learn that they took away the wrong lesson Obama winning Iowa when it comes to AA voters. I'm tired of explaining ad nauseam why the circumstances are different between 2008/2020 including the damning fact that Obama was leading or tied w/ Clinton among AA voters 2 months out from the primary and how the buy in of white voters isn't a needed/affirming factor for supporting white candidates.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,793 posts)Theres either gonna be a lot of silence or a lot of teeth gnashing
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)I imagine that there will be a lot of loud racism.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,407 posts)I'll forgive any lie they need to tell.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden