Democratic Primaries

UncleNoel

(864 posts) Sun Jan 12, 2020, 10:15 AM Jan 2020

Poll: Biden leads in N.H.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/new-hampshire/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#New_Hampshire_primary

Patinkin Research Strategies, Jan. 6-7 (LV MOE +/-4)

Biden 21
Sanders 19 (within the MOE)
Buttigieg 17 (Pete barely reaches Biden with MOE))
Warren 10 (Not good news for Liz)

Haven't seen this posted. Joe and Bernie very close, Pete not so much, Liz way down.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

16 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Poll: Biden leads in N.H. (Original Post) UncleNoel Jan 2020 OP

New pollster: 538 rating them at about a C+ brooklynite Jan 2020 #1

Yeah, never heard of these guys. UncleNoel Jan 2020 #2

Dumb Graphic. crazytown Jan 2020 #13

Age Composition of this NH Poll Sample ritapria Jan 2020 #3

No surprise there!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #4

It is based on a likely voter model NYMinute Jan 2020 #6

Only 18% of NH primary voters are sub 50 years? crazytown Jan 2020 #14

They are calling on landlines. crazytown Jan 2020 #11

Blame the media, question the polls, rinse, lather, repeat as necessary. LanternWaste Jan 2020 #16

According to 538, Biden is only 0.9% behind Warren in her home state of MA, and Sanders is shut out. George II Jan 2020 #5

KR! Cha Jan 2020 #7

K&R Scurrilous Jan 2020 #8

K&R Tarheel_Dem Jan 2020 #9

I'm worried, terrified in fact. crazytown Jan 2020 #10

Good OP, Noel.. thank you! Cha Jan 2020 #12

Right on! UncleNoel Jan 2020 #15

brooklynite

(94,608 posts)

1. New pollster: 538 rating them at about a C+

Reply to UncleNoel (Original post)

Sun Jan 12, 2020, 10:32 AM

Jan 2020

The bottom line is still that all the polling is close and ground game will be a key determinant.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

UncleNoel

(864 posts)

2. Yeah, never heard of these guys.

Reply to brooklynite (Reply #1)

Sun Jan 12, 2020, 10:36 AM

Jan 2020

This image I think says it all, for NH as well as Iowa.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

13. Dumb Graphic.

Reply to UncleNoel (Reply #2)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 05:00 AM

Jan 2020

Bernie's not in red - what were they thinking.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

ritapria

(1,812 posts)

3. Age Composition of this NH Poll Sample

Reply to UncleNoel (Original post)

Sun Jan 12, 2020, 10:51 AM

Jan 2020

Only 22% of the sample was below the age of 50 . ..It is amazing Bernie did so well in this poll … They barely polled Bernie's base of support in the Granite State

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

InAbLuEsTaTe

(24,122 posts)

4. No surprise there!!

Reply to ritapria (Reply #3)

Sun Jan 12, 2020, 11:17 AM

Jan 2020

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

NYMinute

(3,256 posts)

6. It is based on a likely voter model

Reply to ritapria (Reply #3)

Sun Jan 12, 2020, 11:21 AM

Jan 2020

Generally, only about 18% of the voters are youngins. So 22% is oversampling them.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

14. Only 18% of NH primary voters are sub 50 years?

Reply to NYMinute (Reply #6)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 05:02 AM

Jan 2020

Where are you getting your intel from?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

11. They are calling on landlines.

Reply to ritapria (Reply #3)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 04:48 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)

16. Blame the media, question the polls, rinse, lather, repeat as necessary.

Reply to ritapria (Reply #3)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 02:12 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

5. According to 538, Biden is only 0.9% behind Warren in her home state of MA, and Sanders is shut out.

Reply to UncleNoel (Original post)

Sun Jan 12, 2020, 11:18 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(297,323 posts)

7. KR!

Reply to UncleNoel (Original post)

Sun Jan 12, 2020, 05:39 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)

8. K&R

Reply to UncleNoel (Original post)

Sun Jan 12, 2020, 06:36 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tarheel_Dem

(31,235 posts)

9. K&R

Reply to UncleNoel (Original post)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 04:37 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

10. I'm worried, terrified in fact.

Reply to UncleNoel (Original post)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 04:39 AM

Jan 2020

Monmouth A+ Same period Warren 18%
YouGov B- A week earlier, Warren 18%

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Cha

(297,323 posts)

12. Good OP, Noel.. thank you!

Reply to UncleNoel (Original post)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 04:53 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

UncleNoel

(864 posts)

15. Right on!

Reply to Cha (Reply #12)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 05:29 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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