Re the confusion over the last Ipsos/Reuters poll:

[highplainsdem]

The poll gave two different results from the same polling in the same time period.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-democratic-primary-2020-1-10

Washington, DC, January 10, 2020 — A new public opinion poll shows that Senator Bernie Sanders and Former Vice President Joe Biden are the top contenders for the 2020 presidential nomination. Among Democratic registered voters, Biden (23%) maintains an edge over Sanders (20%) and Senator Elizabeth Warren (15%). Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (8%) and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg (7%) round out the top five candidates in the race for the Democratic nomination. Among Democrats and independents, Sanders (17%) has a slight lead over Biden (15%), and Warren (10%) maintains her third-place position. Buttigieg (5%) and Bloomberg (6%) are statistically tied among Democrats and independents. All other candidates receive 3% of the vote share or less among Democrats and independents and Democratic registered voters.

Biden has a 3-point lead when only DEMOCRATIC REGISTERED VOTERS are considered.

Sanders has a 2-point lead when independents are considered as well as Democrats -- AND WHEN PEOPLE WHO AREN'T REGISTERED TO VOTE ARE INCLUDED -- though with independents, and Dems and independents not registered to vote, factored in, 32% say they don't know or can't vote in the primary.


Not surprisingly, Sanders supporters are gleeful about the result with independents factored in.

And some are saying that independents can vote in the Democratic Party primaries.

That ISN'T true for all states, though.

This Ballotpedia page

https://ballotpedia.org/Open_primary#Presidential_primaries_and_caucuses

shows which states have open, closed, or semi-closed primaries:


Traditionally, polls of registered voters are considered more reliable than those including people who aren't registered to vote.

And a lot of the independents in this poll would be in states where they wouldn't be able to vote in the Dem primary, even if they registered to vote as an independent.

[TwilightZone]

1. Yeah, there are some really screwy things in the "other" poll.

58% of the independents are undecided or can't vote in the primary.

And 32% of all non-R respondents are undecided or can't vote in the primary.

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/13/810/808/Topline%20Reuters%202020%20Democratic%20Primary%20Tracker%2001%2009%202020.pdf

It includes all adults, including those who can't vote in the primary, so it's essentially worthless. It's rather odd -- I have no idea why they'd release this poll in the context of a primary.

[highplainsdem]

2. The screwy poll results showing Sanders ahead are clickbait for his supporters.

[getagrip_already]

3. Not to mention....

That many independents are reliable gop voters. So by adding indies, you are asking republicans who they want to see run against trump.

Registered gop voters make up 20-25% of all registered voters. Dems make up 25-28%. The others make up almost half of all voters.

So how does a pollster determine that an indie would vote in the dem primary?

Of course, trump isn't being primaried. There won't even be a vote in many states, and in others, he is the only name on the ballot.

So his voters may cross over and cause trouble in the dem primaries.

[highplainsdem]

4. Good point.