Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(49,023 posts) Mon Jan 13, 2020, 09:41 PM Jan 2020

Monmouth IOWA poll, if only top 4 on ballot: Biden & Buttigieg lead Sanders & Warren!!!

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ia_011320.pdf/

Question 4 there:

4. If the only viable candidates in your caucus site were the following four people who would you caucus for? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

Biden 28%
Sanders 24%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 25%
None of these/won't vote 2%
Undecided 4%

Editing to add that's Biden and Buttigieg with a total of 53%, Sanders and Warren with a total of 40%.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

13 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Monmouth IOWA poll, if only top 4 on ballot: Biden & Buttigieg lead Sanders & Warren!!! (Original Post) highplainsdem Jan 2020 OP

This poll is totally weighted for the over 45 age group and 93% white votes. Not surprising. vsrazdem Jan 2020 #1

Are you at all familiar with Iowa demographics? highplainsdem Jan 2020 #3

Yes, and they polled higher than the average in white voters and higher in age group. vsrazdem Jan 2020 #7

This message was self-deleted by its author highplainsdem Jan 2020 #8

90% white, and they polled 93% white voters. vsrazdem Jan 2020 #9

The poll's weighted not just based on census info, but on state voter registrations. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #12

You are right ritapria Jan 2020 #10

Plus the margin of error is 4.9%, so there's that. vsrazdem Jan 2020 #11

Polling organizations routinely adjust for demographics. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #13

Wow...hahah So much for the team...thank you...K&R Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #2

A state that swung hard right in 2016 prefers the two candidates closest to the right? I'm shocked! LonePirate Jan 2020 #4

So proof that Dems prefer moderate candidates over far left candidates Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #5

Yep! redstatebluegirl Jan 2020 #6

vsrazdem

(2,177 posts)

1. This poll is totally weighted for the over 45 age group and 93% white votes. Not surprising.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 09:43 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

highplainsdem

(49,023 posts)

3. Are you at all familiar with Iowa demographics?

Reply to vsrazdem (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 09:44 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

vsrazdem

(2,177 posts)

7. Yes, and they polled higher than the average in white voters and higher in age group.

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #3)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:03 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Response to vsrazdem (Reply #7)

highplainsdem This message was self-deleted by its author.

vsrazdem

(2,177 posts)

9. 90% white, and they polled 93% white voters.

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #8)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:08 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

highplainsdem

(49,023 posts)

12. The poll's weighted not just based on census info, but on state voter registrations.

Reply to vsrazdem (Reply #9)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:17 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ritapria

(1,812 posts)

10. You are right

Reply to vsrazdem (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:09 PM

Jan 2020

On a percentage basis , the Monmouth sample has far fewer voters aged 18-35 than actually participated in the 2016 Iowa Democratic Caucus ..I checked out the NBC News Exit Poll Results on the 2016 Iowa Democratic Caucus …..Undersampling voters under the age of 35 takes away Bernie's wheelhouse and creates a huge underperformance in Monmouth's topline Results …Even more young'ins are going tp participate in the Caucuses in 2020 … Bernie's Iowa campaign is vastly better organized than it was in 2016 …..They've had 4 years to get their act together ..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided