538: The first poll results are in, and they're pretty weird.

[pnwmom]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-first-post-debate-polls-are-in-and-theyre-pretty-weird/

SurveyUSA has a new national poll that shows Joe Biden leading with 32 percent of the vote, followed by Bernie Sanders at 21 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 14 percent and both Pete Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg at 9 percent. As compared with their previous national poll in November, Biden is up 2 percentage points, Sanders is up 4, Warren is down 1, Buttigieg is down 2, and Bloomberg is up 6.

SurveyUSA also published a new California poll, which has Biden leading there at 30 percent, with Sanders and Warren tied for second at 20 percent and Buttgieg in fourth at 8 percent. Biden and Sanders are both up 2 percentage points since their November California poll, when California senator Kamala Harris was still in the running, while Warren has gained 7 points since polling at 13 percent in November.

While SurveyUSA has seemingly good news for Biden, an Ipsos national poll for Reuters does not. Instead, it has Sanders ahead nationally at 20 percent, followed by Biden at 19, Warren at 12, Bloomberg at 9, and Buttigieg at 6. As compared with the Ipsos/Reuters national poll conducted roughly a week before the debate, Sanders is unchanged, but Biden is down 4 percentage points and Warren is down 3 points.

I should also mention the Ipsos poll conducted with FiveThirtyEight, which surveyed a single group of voters both before and after the debate. It did not include a traditional horse-race question (i.e., “Who is your first choice?”) so it doesn’t figure directly into our polling averages or primary model. However, it showed strong results for Warren, with her making gains on favorability, perceived electability, and the number of Democrats who said they were considering voting for her.

[guillaumeb]

1. A key reminder from the article:

As I said, you can cherry-pick your way to pretty much whatever narrative you like. Biden fan? Both those SurveyUSA numbers look nice. Sanders stan? You’ll probably want to emphasize the Ipsos/Reuters poll. Warren aficionado? The SurveyUSA California poll and the Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight poll look good; the others, not so much.

The poll that counts is the one in November that we call the election.

[Thekaspervote]

4. Here's some NON manipulated Ntl and early state poll averages as of today

RCP Ntl poll avg as of today
Biden 28.4
Sanders 20.4

IA Biden 20.7
Sanders 20.3

NH Biden 21
Sanders 22.5

NV biden 25
sanders 19.3

SC Biden 32
Sanders 15

538 Ntl avg as of today
Biden 26.7
Sanders 19.3

NON manipulated current poll averages

[Demsrule86]

5. I posted the RCP new averages...Biden is up in all of the national ones and holding his own in

the states.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287431113

[RhodeIslandOne]

6. After 2016, forget polls

[guillaumeb]

8. They are small pictures.

Small fragments of a much larger picture.

And turnout is the key. GOP leaders know that they represent a minority viewpoint.

[thesquanderer]

9. re: "The poll that counts is the one in November that we call the election."

Not for choosing our nominee. s/he will have been chosen by then. For the nomination, the first poll that counts is the Iowa caucus, and even that is only a small piece of the puzzle...

[guillaumeb]

12. True, and as I responded here:

.

And we should also remember, and constantly repeat, that any of the Democratic candidates are light years ahead of any GOP candidates.

[TwilightZone]

10. We should probably pick a nominee first.

[guillaumeb]

11. There is that.

And we should also remember, and constantly repeat, that any of the Democratic candidates are light years ahead of any GOP candidates.

[TwilightZone]

13. Agreed.

That should seem self-evident, but it does appear to get lost in the noise occasionally.

[George II]

2. Yes, the results are odd. I just replied to you about that on that other thread.

[TwilightZone]

3. The Ipsos national poll isn't even in the ballpark of any other poll.

The next closest poll this month has Biden +6. It looks like it's an outlier and has probably been one for months.

[judeling]

7. The SurvetUSA write up

is funny. They note that gosh darn it the Biden number just doesn't change they went over there last 6 or so polls and only one didn't come in at 32% it came in at 30%.

That level of consistency is just really not possible.