Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumIn Iowa, It's Joe Biden's Race to Lose (Mother Jones)
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/01/in-iowa-its-joe-bidens-race-to-lose/-snip-
The Buttigieg surge and the Sanders mini-surge have faded. Elizabeth Warren has steadied after dropping nearly ten points since November. Meanwhile, Joe Biden has been slowly gaining back the ground he lost at the end of 2019 and hes now back in the leadthough only by a few points.
-snip-
And here's the link for RCP's Iowa page again:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html
RCP's current Iowa averages, with Biden +3.7:
Biden 21.0
Sanders 17.3
Warren 16.7
Buttigieg 16.3
Klobuchar 8.3
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,655 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MontanaFarmer
(630 posts)support from the caucus-goers for Klobuchar, buttigieg, and other of the minor candidates where they don't clear 15%. If he does, the narrative of the race changes quickly, putting Sanders in a position where he MUST win new Hampshire. Joe's firewall in the south is nearly as impenetrable as it was with Hillary, but he's got appeal in the rust belt also. If he wins Iowa and Nevada, functionally ties in new Hampshire, the race will be basically over on super Tuesday IMO.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
amishcountry
(22 posts)he lost by 0.2, very hard time polling Sanders in 16, are the pollsters doing anything different this time around? If not, Sanders may win by decent margin.
http://livenews.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,479 posts)O'Malley was polling at 4-5%. He won very few precincts, so the majority of his supporters would have switched to other candidates during the caucus process.
If most of them went to Sanders, the polls were pretty much spot-on. The RCP average was Clinton +4. If most of O'Malley's 4-5% went to Sanders, it's basically a tie.
Also, cherry-picking one poll to support your assertion is a bit misguided. The dozen or so polls done in the last week were all over the place, with a spread of 14 points. The +4 average is more representative of the polling situation, and the majority of O'Malley's supporters moving to Sanders could have made up most of the difference.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
amishcountry
(22 posts)Please link to something that backs this up please. I have great interest in polling and have not seen anything that backs up what your saying, so would greatly appreciate if you can show where you have seen that O malley's votes went to Sanders.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....the biggest jump against Sanders, +4.0!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,793 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
boomer_wv
(673 posts)over the next two weeks.
The Berners are going to be on a full court press. Twitter is going to be unreadable.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,793 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stopdiggin
(11,361 posts)A month ago the narrative was that Biden would be "just fine" with a 2nd (or even 3rd) in IA. The new spin? Disappointment and "failed expectations" for anything less than 1st. See how this works? Because .. gotta' have a horse race! Don't fall for it. Biden was never (until the last two days at least) projected to win IA.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
amishcountry
(22 posts)and you can move the race to any candidate you want.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided