New (Jan 15-19) NH poll: Sanders 16%, Biden 15%, Buttigiegd 12%, Warren 10%, undecided 24%

[highplainsdem]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-21/trump-legacy-at-risk-with-senate-impeachment-trial-opening-today

A new poll found Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden have the most support among Democratic voters in New Hampshire, though they were closely followed Senator Elizabeth Warren and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who were both within the survey’s margin of error.

About 16% of likely voters said they support Sanders, with 15% saying they preferred Biden, according a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll released Tuesday. Sanders and Biden were closely trailed by Buttigieg, with 12%, and Warren, with 10%. The results for Warren and Buttigieg were both within the poll’s 4.4 percentage-point margin of error.

-snip-

The results show a tight race that remains in flux in the weeks leading up to start of presidential balloting. The poll indicates the standing could change as more voters make up their mind or change their first choice after seeing how the candidates perform in the Feb. 3 Iowa caucus.

About 24% of likely Democratic primary voters said they were still undecided. Nearly half -- about 47% -- said their first choice could change before the Feb. 11 primary. The poll was conducted Jan. 15-19.

[still_one]

1. Undecideds will decide this

[getagrip_already]

2. NH has 24 pledged delegates, proportionately awarded

538 is predicting both biden and sanders will get 6 each. A tie. Out of 5400.

The same thing is predicted in Iowa. A tie.

The net change after the first 2 contests will be nothing. Even in 2016, there was only a 4 delegate difference between the two candidates leaving NH.

They mean zip.

Look to SC. Look to Super Tuesday where TX alone could give biden a 100 delegate advantage.

After super tuesday, the trend will be clear.

[Blue_true]

6. After Super Tursday the campaign roll through a list of Southern state,

with the biggest, Florida, Georgia, Lousiana expected to go massively to Biden.

[squirecam]

7. Don't forget

Nevada.

[boomer_wv]

3. It's more than pure delegates though.

If Sanders doesnt win NH, he's not a viable candidate. Even a win for him there would be a blow if it were this close.

[BannonsLiver]

8. He's got another problem

He’s not going to be in either state until this farce of a trial is over. Meanwhile Biden and the rest who aren’t in the senate are working away on the ground. Advantage: Biden and the others.

[boomer_wv]

9. Yeah, agreed.

The Senators better be very careful though. Listening to the lawyers drone on and one for hours on end is tough....but if the camera were to catch Sanders or Warren nodding off, that would be a very bad day for them.

Probably not as big a deal for the younger candidates though.

[redqueen]

4. Undecided the clear front runner, still.

Interesting times, indeed.

[Tarheel_Dem]

5. K&R