Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(48,981 posts) Wed Jan 22, 2020, 12:41 AM Jan 2020

538 today on odds of winning the nomination: Biden 1 in 2, Sanders 1 in 6

Biden's odds improving, Sanders' worsening.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

This probably has something to do with the desperate attacks on Biden from the Sanders campaign.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

8 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538 today on odds of winning the nomination: Biden 1 in 2, Sanders 1 in 6 (Original Post) highplainsdem Jan 2020 OP

Bernie would have to win IA to have a chance. If Biden wins IA (looking more and more likely), Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #1

Warren, last polls I have read... sheshe2 Jan 2020 #5

It looks so desperate. How is it we can see it isn't working but he can't???!!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #2

I suspect Sanders' internal polling picked up the trend before the public polls. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #3

Wow! peggysue2 Jan 2020 #4

It's still 2 in 5 today, at 43 or 44%. thesquanderer Jan 2020 #7

KR! Cha Jan 2020 #6

This makes me smile Gothmog Jan 2020 #8

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

1. Bernie would have to win IA to have a chance. If Biden wins IA (looking more and more likely),

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2020, 12:44 AM

Jan 2020

I think that will almost seal it, assuming Bernie doesn't win NH by a landslide.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

sheshe2

(83,771 posts)

5. Warren, last polls I have read...

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 22, 2020, 01:04 AM

Jan 2020

Winning NH. Two new endorsements there.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,769 posts)

2. It looks so desperate. How is it we can see it isn't working but he can't???!!!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2020, 12:47 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)

3. I suspect Sanders' internal polling picked up the trend before the public polls.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2020, 12:48 AM

Jan 2020

Hence, the change in tactics. Or change in intensity, to be more accurate.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

peggysue2

(10,829 posts)

4. Wow!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Wed Jan 22, 2020, 12:51 AM

Jan 2020

Biden was originally rated 2 in 5. That really shot up.

Things are beginning to coalesce it appears.

Thanks for the update. Great news for Biden.

Btw, I agree on the attacks. Americans are weary of Trump's constant sniping. Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters don't need nor do they want an extension of those bad-faith attacks and disinformation in the primaries. Enough already!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

thesquanderer

(11,989 posts)

7. It's still 2 in 5 today, at 43 or 44%.

Reply to peggysue2 (Reply #4)

Wed Jan 22, 2020, 10:42 AM

Jan 2020

I don't know what it was when the OP posted, but he was at 44% when I checked it this morning, and it's 43% now.

The whole numbers are rounded. If he goes up from 43 or 44% to 45%, rounding to nearest 10 changes from 2 in 5 (43 or 44 rounded to 40) to 1 in 2 (45 rounded to 50). So I change from 2 in 5 to 1 in 2 doesn't have to mean he shot up... going up from 44% to 45% would yield that result.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden