Reuters/Ipsos poll that had Sanders +1 last week today has Biden +4

[highplainsdem]

New poll: Biden 24%, Sanders 20%, Warren 12%, Bloomberg 10%, Buttigieg 7%

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-democrats-poll/biden-leads-while-others-gain-momentum-in-bid-for-2020-nomination-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1ZM365



Last week's poll had Sanders 20%, Biden 19%, Warren 12%, Bloomberg 9%, Buttigieg 6%

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-democrats-poll/sanders-climbs-now-tied-with-biden-among-registered-voters-reuters-poll-idUSKBN1ZG00D

[Cha]

1. Thanks for watching the polls so

well for us, hpd!

[Tarheel_Dem]

2. K&R

[bluewater]

3. Margin of Error is +/- 5%

So, it's statistical noise.

[karynnj]

5. That's not exactly what the MOE means

It is true that in this a 20 could be anywhere from 15 to 25. However, the errors are assumed to be normally distributed - so it is more likely that the real percent is between 19 and 21 than the rest of the interval.

It is very possible that last week, Biden and Sanders were actually tied or Biden was ahead - even though the probability of that would be less than 50%. This week, it is extremely unlikely that Sanders is ahead.

[Scurrilous]

4. So much for that!