Who Best Appeals To Independents?

[TomCADem]

I understand that Bernie's campaign likes to make the argument that since he is an independent every other election cycle, that he will appeal to independents. However, this argument assumes that independents represent a single monolithic block. However, as this recent Gallup poll shows, it is a mistake to assume that independents vote as a block or that they are ideologically homogeneous. To the contrary, it would appear that independents to be skew more conservative than Democrats generally:





With that in mind, who among the current set of contenders would be in the best position to appeal to independents based on the Gallup results?

[apcalc]

1. Biden, Buttegieg, Klobuchar imo ...You?

[Joinfortmill]

3. Agree

[Kurt V.]

2. this isn't right bc swing voters is about 8% of the electorate.

the rest reliably vote democrat or republican. Independent voters is a myth.

[Blue_true]

4. There is nothing new.

The statement is that we have to win the big majority of moderates, even moderate Independents. If we do that, we win. The charts that you showed proves that point. The question is WHO gains us the majority of moderate voters?

[jr1118x]

5. The base is the key

Most studies I have seen show that true independents are pretty low. We know Trump's base will turn out the keys getting our base to turn up in large numbers. I think a lot of that will come from the younger voters. The older voters we know will show up no matter what, but will the under 35 crowd show up for some of the more middle of the road candidates. If compare candidates numbers in polls for the under 40 age groups can see, generally are much more progressive. Now with older voters it seems they tend to be more centrist. Compare Biden vs Sanders numbers for under 40 years old and over 40 polls and its complete opposites. I honestly believe if we go "safe" we don't have a chance. Which is more likely an older voter not voting because of a progressive choice or a younger voter not showing up because we pick someone who can't reach or inspire them. For example the Tisch College Circle poll of young voters pre 2016 election under who was excited for a Clinton vs Trump presidency it was 18% vs 32%. The age groups under 39 were also the highest numbers to vote for someone other than Clinton or Trump as well. From the results I have seen it looks like it was around 9% that went away from the D or the R, that's a lot of votes lost, especially considering that age group leans much more left.

[TomCADem]

6. I Thought That Bernie Was Selling His Appeal To Independents?

One of the key talking points of Bernie's campaign (see below) is that he appeals to independents. However, according to your post, Bernie should be trying to cater to the party's liberal base. It is a conflicting message. President Obama tried to cater to a large coalition while Trump doubled down on the party's hard right base. Bernie seems to be trying to paint himself as a purer than thou progressive, yet his all party also tries to sell his appeal to independents.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/19/bernie-sanders-campaign-2020-1173608

To operatives in both parties, the notion that Sanders could defeat Trump in one of the president’s strongholds strains credulity. But the Sanders team is convinced the Vermont senator’s appeal to independent voters, the white working class and people of color is underestimated — and could pay dividends in unexpected places in a general election. They argue that his anti-establishment and populist economic message, as well as his many years of representing rural voters, makes him competitive in not only the Rust Belt states where Hillary Clinton faltered but also potentially in deep-red states, too.

They’re not just talking about West Virginia. Some in the Sanders camp envision possibly making a play for Iowa, Ohio, and Indiana, as well as states such as Kansas, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Montana — six states that, together, have voted for the Democratic nominee just twice in the past half-century.

“It could just radically change the map,” Tulchin told POLITICO. “As Bernie has showed, as Trump has showed, I don’t think we are in a binary, two-dimensional, left-right paradigm anymore.”

Convincing the primary electorate that he can defeat Trump in a general election looms as one of Sanders’ biggest challenges in 2020: His rivals, as well as pundits from both parties, will likely paint him as an extremist who could never win over the moderate voters who helped Democrats take back the House in the 2018 midterms.

[ehrnst]

7. What is the source for your statistics?

On DU, we like to cite our sources when making quantifiable claims.



Also, the most reliable voting base for Democrats is women of color.

Any nominee on the Democratic POTUS ticket is going to be the one who appeals to the base. Dismissing the concerns of WOC as 'identity politics' will tank any chance of getting the nomination.

https://www.thelily.com/the-2020-election-will-be-decided-in-black-womens-hair-salons-heres-why/

https://fortune.com/2019/06/20/black-women-voters-2020-election/

It was interesting who did well, and who did poorly at the She the People forum for the Democratic candidates, don't you think?

[highplainsdem]

8. Those graphs are clearly marked as being from Gallup.

All you have to do is google

gallup political ideology

and this turns up on the first page of results:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/275792/remained-center-right-ideologically-2019.aspx

[ehrnst]

10. What graphs are you talking about?

All I see is text.

[highplainsdem]

12. Whoops. Thought you were responding to the OP. Sorry. The OP didn't have a link

to the source of the info, either, and I thought you'd missed that it was from Gallup, so I found the article at Gallup with those graphs.

[jr1118x]

16. requested links

OK as to the claim true independents are much lower in reality https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politics/independents-pew/index.html
As to claim about older voters participating more https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html
As to the claim about younger voters supporting Bernie more than Biden there are numerous polls, here is one https://www.salon.com/2019/12/12/new-california-and-national-polls-show-sanders-crushing-2020-rivals-among-voters-under-45_partner/
As to the claim that older voters have higher support for Biden over Sanders here is just 1 poll but a large number show same thing by demographics https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/IADem1019.pdf
As to a link to the survey I referenced about excited of younger voters for Clinton vs Trump http://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XTr2k/1/
Finally the claim that many of the Bernie supports who did not vote for Clinton were not democrats, here is an articlee "Party seems to have had something to do with it — Sanders-Trump voters were much less likely than Sanders-Clinton or Sanders-third party voters to have been Democrats. Likewise, approval of President Barack Obama appears to be related — Sanders-Trump voters approved of Obama much less than other Sanders primary voters."
https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds

[k2qb3]

9. I think it's a mistake to think independents are in the middle...

A more accurate representation is that they're roughly equidistant, but the direction is all over the map.

They may happen to agree with one side or the other on whatever their primary issue may be, they may agree with the other side on other things.

The one thing they all have in common is they aren't entirely buying the narrative of either party.

IME moderation isn't the virtue you'd expect with most of them. They actually tend to be pretty radical in one way or another, that's why the mainstream options don't capture their loyalty.

[Garrett78]

11. Independent and moderate are not synonymous.

And the average so-called "independent" today is more partisan (more likely to consistently vote for the same party) than the average party-affiliated voter in the 1970s.

[TomCADem]

15. That is the Whole Point of the Gallup Poll. How Do "Independents" Lean?

A lot of folks have been pushing Bernie's appeal to "independents," yet it would appear that only 20 percent of independents classify themselves as liberal.

[OliverQ]

14. Keep in mind that Trump's disapproval with Independents

is 66%. I think at this point, their ideology doesn't matter much they just want to get rid of the tyrant.