"Swing Voters Draw The Line At Socialists": New Polling Suggests Key Voters Are Skeptical On Bernie

[TomCADem]

While I can understand that swing voters might be skeptical about Bernie, I don't get why they might prefer Bloomberg of all folks.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/02/new-poll-suggests-key-voters-skeptical-on-bernie-sanders-love-bloomberg

If pragmatism was on the Democratic ballot this year, it might well win in a landslide. The widespread loathing for Donald Trump among Democrats has made electability the single most important factor for many primary voters. In a January Economist/YouGov survey, 65% of likely Democratic primary voters declared that they would vote for a nominee “who can win the general election in November,” compared to only 35% who said that it was more important that they agree with the nominee’s positions. For some Democrats, mostly of the moderate flavor, electability has become a central component of their campaign—and an argument against their more left-wing opponents. Last weekend, for instance, the Pete Buttigieg campaign wrote to supporters arguing that Bernie Sanders was a major electoral threat: “We risk nominating a candidate who cannot beat Donald Trump in November. And that’s a risk we can’t take.”

Being pragmatic in 2020 likely means appealing to a small but inarguably important group of voters—ones who would at least consider shifting their support between the parties. How many truly undecideds and persuadables exist is a matter of hot debate, with estimates ranging from high single digits to roughly 20%. The larger number is what we found in a recent Politico-Morning Consult poll, the cumulative total of respondents who described themselves as either undecided or only leaning toward one party or the other. How many of that 20% are truly in play is a bit muddy, but what is clear is that those swing voters tend to cluster in the category of self-described Independents: Fully one third of Independents in the poll described themselves as leaners or undecided. That explains why a candidate like Amy Klobuchar would boast to Vox that “I appeal to Independents just based on my agenda and what I want to get done,” and mean that she is more electable than her Democratic competitors.

Klobuchar and Buttigieg and Joe Biden for that matter, are all making the case that they are vote magnets for these persuadable Independents—but assessing candidates’ appeal to these voters is almost as difficult as figuring out how many they are. As a group, they tend to be disengaged and generally less knowledgeable about politics and policies than those in the parties’ mainstreams. By definition they are late deciders, making predictions nine months in advance speculative, and making the head-to-head polling that media love more of an exercise in name recognition than a real predictive exercise.

For these reasons, we took a different tack, focusing not on candidates but on qualities. We analyzed how Independents answered a battery of questions in the Politico-Morning Consult poll that focused on the characteristics that voters would want to see or avoid in a general election candidate. Here are three major takeaways.

[Cha]

1. Yeah.. and so am I

[UniteFightBack]

2. Bloomberg has a record of actual accomplishments. nt

[TheRealNorth]

3. Bloomberg has a record of supporting Republicans

If Bloomberg is nominated, the Trump team will micro target minority voters using Bloomberg's record in order to depress minority turnout.

[UniteFightBack]

4. He doesn't have a record of trashing the Democratic party. nt

[TheRealNorth]

5. No, he just has a record of telling people to vote for the Republican over a Democrat

[TomCADem]

6. To the same extent as Bernie Trashing Democrats?

It seems like every other day you have Bernie or one of his surrogates suggesting that there is no difference between Democrats and Republicans or, worse, arguing that "Establishment" Democrats are worse than Republicans.

If you have any clips of Bloomberg acting in similar fashion where he just paints Democrats in a broad brush, I would love to see it.

Now, I don't mind candidates offering specific policies critiques, but Bernie repeatedly pushes a false equivalency that is not tied to any specific policies in an effort to paint himself as an independent who is not partisan. Yet, he ends up acting just as partisan as anyone on the right in attacking Democrats.

[LakeArenal]

31. ***!!!****

[liskddksil]

12. This! nt

[not_the_one]

35. Or he flips from being a Democrat to being a Republican

because he can't be bothered to run in a crowded democratic field, and possibly LOSE. So he runs as a LIBERAL republican, in LIBERAL New York City. A cakewalk, given the other republican candidates for mayor.

Money CAN buy ads, and ads CAN convince democrats to vote republican, IF the republican is saying all the right things.

Too bad Bloomberg couldn't be bothered to play the game as it was supposed to be played. That makes him a rich, conniving opportunist.

But if that is the choice, I will make him MY RICH CONNIVING OPPORTUNIST, come November.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

13. In what world is supporting George Bush over John Kerry not "trashing the Democratic Party"?

In what world is supporting republican Senate challengers over Democratic senate candidates not bashing the Democratic Party?

In what world is supporting Republican congresspeople over Democratic congresspeople not trashing 5he Democratic Party?

[honest.abe]

9. The Bloomberg team will target those same voters.

Whom do you think they will believe?

[emmaverybo]

54. One "accomplishment" was to aggressively stomp on AA and Latino's civil rights through

amping up the “Stop and Frisk” program, which he defended despite outcry, insisting it brought
down the crime rate without any proof, and refused to apologize for until he decided to run.

I am no Bernie fan. Aside from his starting a movement, it’s true he has no accomplishment to show, at least legislatively, for 30 years. However, Bernie would never pursue a program that
denies people civil liberties.

And I must credit him with starting a movement he believes will improve millions of lives and save
the planet.

[Cha]

7. Kick

[flamingdem]

8. Big problem on the horizon

Trump already started tying dems to socialism in the sotu.

[rockfordfile]

10. Nobody watched it because of Trump's lies

[flamingdem]

11. Trump fans watched

..

[eilen]

24. by definition, not swing voters. nt

[uponit7771]

57. Trump fans didn't win him the last election Russian backed 3rd parties did

[OliverQ]

27. And? That doesn't work on most people

especially 18-35 year olds. Most of this country doesn't even know what Socialism is, and I'm certainly not going to care what all the Republicans and right-leaning Indies care about when they're currently pro-Fascism.

Notice that nobody cared that Trump gave Farmers $28 billion in welfare?

[brush]

34. Let's not be naive. The word socialism is toxic to quite a few million voters.

Seems there is history you're not aware of.

Two generations (maybe a generation and a half—boomers and many GenXers) where schooled to fear commies/reds/the USSR, Red China, the domino theory, failed communist collectives, socialists, etc. Many still believe that and they make up quite a large swathe of voters.

I know many who are younger (the 18-35-year-olds you speak of) say that the stigma against socialism has lessened considerably but that may just be among their cohort. There are still millions, millions of voters who detest socialism and that large swathe of voters is not going to vote for Sanders if he gets the nomination—and among those voters, you can bet, are many Democrats, not to mention independents and never-trump republicans, all of whom we need to defeat trump in November.

Do we really want to take the chance that younger voters, who just don't vote as heavily as older ones, will make up for the millions who detest socialism and things imagined about it in their minds?

That's not a good bet. Let's make the election a referendum on trump's criminality, not one on socialism and Sanders.

[djg21]

47. If it's Bernie we lose.

Bernie and AOC are among the worst things to happen to the Democratic Party during this election cycle. Oh I forgot. Bernie isn’t a Democrat, and AOC would be in another party if she could be.

[uponit7771]

58. That mostly are heavy leaning republican, turn out election first then reach out

[Historic NY]

51. And Trump is good at branding...

[Scurrilous]

14. Some people think socialism is keen and will help us win the Presidency.

East Germany has some old banners they can borrow. Didn't really 'win' there but I heard we should give it a chance again in the United States. What can we lose?

[MoonlitKnight]

15. Swing voters

No such thing.

[denem]

16. The electorate looks for change in their next president.

All the candidates would be a quantum leap from trump. Bloomberg could see himself as minimally-partisan technocrat, as apposed to the hyper partisan corrupt incompetent.

[Gothmog]

17. sanders is a weak candidate who would be easy to beat

Link to tweet

[hangaleft]

18. I love Sanders on the issues

But, we have to be pragmatic. The country will not elect a self-described socialist (Democratic or otherwise) president.

[Gothmog]

21. Agreed-trump would love o run against socialism

Link to tweet

[OliverQ]

29. You do not know that.

Wisconsin has a long history of pro-Socialism and Bernie is polling very high there.

[Pachamama]

59. I agree with Rick Wilson....

Sanders cannot and will not ever get moderate Democrats, moderate Republicans and Republicans disgusted by Trump and Trumpism and moderate Independents to vote for him. Those groups of voters are needed to win, just as the women and black vote.

It is why Trump and his supporters so badly want to be going against Sanders.

[marlakay]

19. Forget talking about socialism

And talk about Trump, who are you willing to vote for to get rid of him?

I was shocked when my daughter and husband who lean republican moderate and were going to vote for Biden said today, mom I would even vote for Bernie to get rid of Trump. Hate him and my husband will too.

That spoke volumes to me, my kid that refused to talk to me about politics for years because I was progressive started the conversation today. Appalled at what he got away with.

I hope there are many more of her!

[TomCADem]

20. Someone Should Tell Bernie That Since He Spends So Much Time...

...attacking and blaming Democrats.

[Cha]

23. +1

[Gothmog]

22. trump will make the campaign about socialism and will beat sanders easily

[djg21]

48. I'd vote for Bernie if I had to.

But it will sicken me. And I was a supporter of his when I lived in Burlington and he was mayor. I wish he would go away.

[Gothmog]

25. AMJOY-sanders would lose Florida due to socialism

Link to tweet

[mia]

45. I value her opinion.

Thanks for posting.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

26. I prefer Bloomberg a million times over Sanders.

I'm not crazy about Bloomberg but he'd have a fighting chance to beat Trump, while Bernie would deliver us another horrific four years of Trump on a silver platter.

[aeromanKC]

30. I think Bloomberg would crush Trump.

If of course the election was not rigged. ( I am very skeptical about that.)

[LakeArenal]

32. Yep.

[octoberlib]

40. Bloomberg has the best ads!

[Pachamama]

62. [phone]

Completely Agree

[betsuni]

28. K&R

[Gothmog]

33. Does this look familiar?

Link to tweet

[octoberlib]

39. McGovern . Not that I disagree with the platform but it's all about winning.

[Gothmog]

36. socialism" is a red flag for Republicans and Republican-leaners

Link to tweet

A new Pew Research poll finds that “a much larger share of Americans have a positive impression of capitalism (65%) than socialism (42%).” The partisan gap is significant, though: “Nearly eight-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaning independents (78%) express somewhat or very positive reactions to the term, while just over half of Democrats and Democratic leaners (55%) say they have a positive impression.” The intensity of anti-socialism sentiment (63 percent of Republicans have a very negative view) dwarfs that of pro-socialism sentiment (only 14 percent of Democrats have a very positive view).....

First, “socialism” is a red flag for Republicans and Republican-leaners to a degree that “progressive” (which 40 percent of Republicans view favorably) is not. There’s not even all that much payoff among Democrats, since 33 percent of Democrats have a negative view of that term, while only 12 percent have a very positive view of socialism. If you want a Democratic nominee to have the broadest ideological appeal, the most unifying descriptor among Democrats is “progressive” (88 percent), not socialism (65 percent).....

First, “socialism” is a red flag for Republicans and Republican-leaners to a degree that “progressive” (which 40 percent of Republicans view favorably) is not. There’s not even all that much payoff among Democrats, since 33 percent of Democrats have a negative view of that term, while only 12 percent have a very positive view of socialism. If you want a Democratic nominee to have the broadest ideological appeal, the most unifying descriptor among Democrats is “progressive” (88 percent), not socialism (65 percent).

[rownesheck]

37. If there are people

who would vote for trump after 4 years of hell, rather than the person running against him (even if he considers himself a socialist), then those morons are either trump supporters already, or they are magnificently stupid. If trump wins a second term because of their stupidity, this country deserves the horror we will endure. We don't deserve democracy.

[octoberlib]

38. Swing voters are moderates , that's why.

[Zolorp]

41. I am skeptical of Sanders chances of not being completely blown out in a route of epic proportions

I prefer Bloomberg to Sanders by a wide margin.

[Awsi Dooger]

42. Nobody is going to get blown out

Trump has low upside. Top to bottom among our candidates is maybe 3% difference at most, in terms of how it would play out in a general election.

But choosing the high end among the 3% compared to the low end is all the difference in the world...literally the world and the future.

[Zolorp]

43. Nothing you can say will convince me Sanders will not be blown out in the worst rout since '84

Possibly since '72 and given the fact he is a former Communist, I'm convinced there's a damned good chance he could make Trump the first president since Washington to win the Electoral College unanimously!

[Zolorp]

64. I do not believe that.

I believe if Sanders is our nominee we are guaranteed to lose.

[gollygee]

65. I agree - and we will lose the exact same states we lost before

Most people in swing states won't vote for anyone who has ever used the word "socialist"

[Zolorp]

66. I think it will be worse.

It will be the worst route since '84.

[True Blue American]

56. I am moderate

Deplore the extremes of either side. I admired IKE. The last one I ever had any use for. With Nixon the Party has gone down, down to the dregs of humanity.

[Cha]

44. K!

[oasis]

46. "But..but, Trump is a liar. he's gonna say bad things about all Democrats".

Let's see how much more mileage that excuse will get.

[Gothmog]

49. Trump will beat sanders badly

Link to tweet

[Cha]

50. Thank you for that, Goth..

[fleabiscuit]

52. LOL---------------------- Infinity

[RandySF]

53. The Revolution Will Not Be Suburbanized

[NurseJackie]

55. I am too. I only vote for DEMOCRATS, not Socialists. (I'm not alone.)

In his own words...

[still_one]

60. I believe it is more than sing voters, and if Sanders is our nominee, he will be a disaster in the

general election

(Yes, I will vote for him if he is our nominee)

[Pachamama]

61. Sadly, socialism has been framed and defined as being evil, bad and the same as Communism

The definition of what socialism actually is has been so mutated and falsely described and understood by most Americans (who don’t even actually know that many of the things they enjoy in American Society are indeed socialist programs and policies - including many Republican backed programs).

Because of this and the way socialism and the socialist label have been misunderstood and it’s become a “bad thing”, anyone who touts the label and identifies as a socialist or embraces it, will be destroyed by Trump and will not appeal to many voters who identify as moderate or independent. Even voters who love policies and programs that are socialist and don’t realize it will run away from the “label”.

Republicans and their operatives like Frank Luntz have spent years purposely sowing disinformation and fear about socialism and they are set to reap the benefits in the upcoming election.

Any candidate identifying as a socialist and embracing and stating that socialism is good will be destroyed at the ballot box. And while I am all for the American people being educated on what socialism actually is and how we already have it in so many parts of our society that greatly benefit us, now is not the time to try to educate - there simply is not enough time and it’s not possible. That is a fight that can’t be won now.

[gollygee]

63. I live in west Michigan and I know swing voters

They don't so much believe in the right wing consipiracies as say, "I don't know what to believe anymore." So they don't disbelieve them either. I think that's why they didn't like Hillary. But they won't vote for anyone who has ever used the word "socialist." Bloomberg is successful, and that carries a lot of weight for people. Our saying, "Oh he won't take money from billionaires" means nothing to them. Maybe less than nothing. It means you aren't practical or smart. And I think the last name "Bloomberg" has enough recognition as "someone successful" to move them toward him. He is not my pick but I think people would love him.

[NYMinute]

67. People will be weary of a socialist

and may hold their nose and vote for Trump

[Docreed2003]

68. I think there a several big problems with the idea of a Sanders nomination

First, the only firewall we have had against Trump in the last two years has been the House. The "Blue Wave" which allowed for that firewall was won on the backs of moderates, not the Sanders wing of the party. How does Bernie propose to hold on to those seats with his message when his message failed to take hold in those areas in 16 or 18?? If we lose the House, we will have at best a President in Sanders who won't be able to pass a single piece of his agenda and at worse, and my biggest fear, a second Trump term with an obliging House and Senate. Additionally, I can't foresee any scenario where Dems seriously threaten to retake the Senate without holding on to those swing House districts we picked up in '18.

Second, how are we supposed to unify the party behind a candidate who has made it very clear, and his surrogates and more vocal supporters as well, that they have no interest in unifying? We're told that anyone who doesn't support Sanders isn't honoring the "roots of the party in FDR", nevermind the fact that Sanders himself has been vocal about his distaste for nearly every Democratic President since then up to and including Obama; we're told that the "tent is too big" and yet we're slapped in the face when we don't readily accept the endorsements of someone like Joe Rogan; we're told that "establishment" Democrats are no better than Republicans, despite the fact that those "establishment" Democrats are the backbone of the party and had stood time and again against Trump.

We're being told that a revolution is coming. The only signs of revolution I'm seeing are one that is dividing and undermining the Democratic Party.

[Cha]

69. K

[Gothmog]

70. Poll: Americans Won't Vote for a Socialist

Link to tweet

The Democratic primary field has been the most diverse in history, featuring African-Americans, women, a Latino, an Asian-American and a man in a same-sex marriage. The lineup has Democrats bragging about how their offers represent modern America, tempered by worries about the ''electability'' of the nontraditional candidates.
]
But according to a Gallup poll released Tuesday, Americans overwhelmingly are just fine with voting for a woman, as well as a black, Hispanic or (to a somewhat lesser extent) gay candidate. The sort of candidate a majority of Americans reject?

Socialist.

The category was the only one which had a majority of Americans, 53%, declaring they would not cast a ballot for a candidate so described (45% say they would vote for a well-qualified socialist).

The numbers are a bit of a warning bell for Sen. Bernie Sanders, a self-described Democratic socialist who is a top contender for the Democratic nomination for president. President Donald Trump has repeatedly thrown out the word ''socialist'' to tar Sanders, Democrats as a party, and various policy initiatives such as Medicare for All.