Biden is in real trouble, finishes a distant fourth in Iowa

[stopbush]

Sanders will win NH, and Warren has good geographical chance of finishing second. Joe’s supposed firewall is SC, but if he doesn’t win in NV either, well, he already has money troubles. Three losses and a must-win in SC. Yikes! His campaign is going the wrong direction.

And all that opens the door for Bloomberg.

[apcalc]

1. Iowa means squat.

[stopbush]

4. Obama? Iowa meant a lot for him.

And it means a lot for Pete and Sanders this time.

[apcalc]

7. Time and primaries will tell.

[Quixote1818]

18. If he had been a close second but he did horrible. It also means when people finally decide to

actually vote they just can't seem to pull the lever for Biden. The polls had him much higher than his final result. That is a real concern.

[UniteFightBack]

35. Don't confuse a caucus where you are hanging out after class with an actual vote. nt

[Scurrilous]

36. Do you think this is a bad look?

I mean someone might get 5 more delegates than him so delegate math isn't the problem obviously. Not with only 2.5789473684211% of the delegates needed for nomination up for grabs. What do you think about how it looks? Do you think voters in the south care about what some farmers in Iowa did? How about Texas where Biden is way ahead? Or NY? Or Florida? Is the look bad enough for them to abandon Biden after all this time?

BTW...no one got to pull levers. So LOL.

[Quixote1818]

67. Pulling levers metaphorically speaking

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

21. Well, of course... as I predicted would be said if Bernie wins, and Joe loses, Iowa.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Laelth]

22. It means even less now than it did a few days ago. n/t

-Laelth

[Scurrilous]

28. 2.5789473684211% of the delegates needed to win and Biden got some of that so yes, squat.

On to the next squat - New Hamshire.

Link to tweet

[Tiggeroshii]

2. "Finishes" is not what happened.

Nobody has finished anything.

[PJMcK]

3. After this mess, do Iowa's results mean anything? (n/t)

[Hassin Bin Sober]

16. A 24 hour delay in results due to a vendor/app failure doesn't change the results.

The problem is a reporting issue. Not a voting issue.

[Kurt V.]

26. +1000

[emmadoggy]

48. Thank you!!!!

[Garrett78]

64. But it does change the narrative. Biden caught a big break. Meanwhile...

...the wind was somewhat taken out of the Buttigieg and Sanders sails.

Now, if Biden doesn't finish at least 2nd in either NH or NV, I think we'll see people in SC abandon the Biden ship. But the Iowa shitshow (and Buttigieg's lack of support among POC) is certainly to Biden's advantage. An undisputed prime time announcement of Biden finishing a distant 4th would have been far more damaging than the narrative that has dominated over the last 24 hours. Damage was done but it was dampened significantly.

[Ghost Dog]

5. Nothing is finished with only 62% of precincts counted

(presumably the smallest?).

To assert this looks very much like attempted manipulation.

[Mariana]

61. Manipulation of what? nt.

[TexasTowelie]

6. Bookmarking.

[MH1]

33. ..

[Zolorp]

8. If it plays out the way you lay it out, I'll switch to Bloomberg

Have to see how things go, though.

[SharonClark]

9. Let's see what happens in a few more states before declaring Biden in trouble.

He's not my choice but Iowa Dems who show up at caucuses are more liberal than general Iowa Democratic voters.

[BlueIdaho]

10. So far Warren and Biden are close

If the % of vote holds - they will be a statistical tie for third and each would receive the same number of state primary delegates. Best not to get too far ahead of ourselves.

[karynnj]

62. This is not a poll, so there is no such thing as a statistical tie

You could say the difference is insignificant.

[BlueIdaho]

63. There could very well be a tie

When it comes to apportioning state delegates. Just wait and see.

[bitterross]

11. I didn't give a damn about IA before the caucus, Much less after.

Good grief. Its one little state and NH is not much better. Neither is, in the least, representative of the rest of the country when it comes to demographics.

[left-of-center2012]

12. Joe is in trouble, again

He dropped out in 1987 after being accused of plagiarizing a speech by British Labour leader Neil Kinnock while in Des Moines.
In 2008, he finished fifth in the caucuses, garnering less than 1 percent of the vote.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

23. Yes, as I've been predicted for 8 months, Joe's done. He's a good guy...hes just not electable.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[TexasTowelie]

45. .

[dware]

60. He's not electable?

You're a hoot.

If, as you say, and I don't for one second believe you, he's not electable, then your man BS is in much worse shape than him.

This country is still a center to center left majority and your man BS is a far left socialist who's not even a Democrat, he's just using the Democratic Party to further his ambitions.

If BS becomes our nominee, and I still highly doubt it, then prepare for another 4 years of the Mango Menace and the possible loss of the House and the Senate remaining in the Repigs hands.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

65. No, he's not... Joe, who was VP for EIGHT YEARS, came in 4th in Iowa. QED!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[dware]

66. You just don't get it do you?

Iowa doesn't mean shit to the rest of the country, whether you like it or not, the US is still, by far and large, a center to center left country, and your man BS is a far left socialist.

He will get creamed by the Mango Menace in the GE if he becomes our candidate.

[Scurrilous]

32. Leading nationally in the polls, so what you're saying is nuts.

But..go on.

[revmclaren]

13. Bookmarking. n/t

[TheRealNorth]

14. I have more faith in Biden supporters (Maybe not on this board)

That they will align behind Mayor Pete or Warren should Biden continue to slide.

[AtheistCrusader]

20. I would have zero qualms about switching to Mayor Pete.

I'll likely have to re-evaluate my gut when we get to 100% precincts reporting.

[Voltaire2]

24. Me too. He's more centrist than I like, but far better than the billionaire reagan democrat.

[rzemanfl]

30. I recently switched from Mayor Pete to Biden because

I think winning is everything. We'll see how this plays out.

[Demsrule86]

55. I will stay with Biden but if he is out by the time Ohio votes...I will vote for Bloomberg whom I

believe will beat Trump.

[still_one]

15. LOL. Bloomberg isn't going anywhere, and your assessment based on the IOWA caucus

and NH primary is a joke.

After Super Tuesday, that will tell the story who is in and who is out

[msongs]

17. months ago biden said he has low expectations in Iowa and he was moving past that nt

[cwydro]

59. Why did he pour all that time and money into Iowa in that case?

Makes no sense.

[Kyblue1]

19. Is Biden the victim, as are we, of the Putin/Trump strategy?

Destroy the candidate who offers the most striking option to the ignorant, immoral, corrupt childish bully who will continue to ruin our country with the aid of the greedy GOP

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

25. Biden is fine. Bernie needed a big win in Iowa. He's clearly finished.

[ChubbyStar]

34. Biden came in fourth

But Bernie is finished? have some more coffee.....

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

38. Iowa. Nearly-all white caucus state?

A volunteer for every 2 voters? Half the support of 2016?

Lots of dark money from Our Revolution?

Sanders is in clear trouble.

[ChubbyStar]

40. Iowa has just become so meaningless since Joe got beat badly

You need some better material.....

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

41. Custom made for Sanders. He needed a big win. He did not get it, it seems.

Too bad.

Maybe 2024? The revolution is eternal!

[ChubbyStar]

42. I need to go dig in the valley below.... as I call my basement

There are some great books I want to share with my kids tonight. Later!

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

44. I suggest the Pied Piper for tonight's reading.

[ChubbyStar]

46. Sorry we are serious readers in my family

Keep your children's fairy tales.

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

47. Then The Gulag Archipelago.

Good stuff.

Although you are short-selling the Pied Piper.

[TheRealNorth]

49. You might not want to hang your hat on non-white voters just yet

The entrance polls showed Sanders doing really well among non-white voters in Iowa.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa?xid=map_20200203_IA_D

While I think Biden probably still doing better with African Americans at this point, we will see if Bernie or one of the other candidates is able to cut into that margin. (From what I have seen reported, Bernie was touting increases in support amongst Hispanic/Latinos)

Race
1,630 total respondents


91%
White
9%
Non-white

Biden
16%
13%

Bloomberg
0%
1%

Buttigieg
23%
15%

Gabbard
0%
n/a

Klobuchar
14%
3%

Sanders
21%
43%

Steyer
2%
0%

Warren
17%
12%

Yang
5%
12%

Uncommitted
1%
2%

[Drunken Irishman]

54. I mean if Biden is done for finishing 4th, Bernie has to be in trouble for not winning, right?

He might not be done but Bernie is on pace to do worse than he did in 2016.

[Demsrule86]

56. Sanders should have done way better in that state...Biden on the other hand ...didn't expect

him too...what happened to all those voters who voted for him before?...didn't show up this time.

[Garrett78]

68. Apples and oranges. 2016 was a 2-person race.

[VMA131Marine]

27. For those wondering about whether Bloomberg can win

he was elected Mayor of NYC three times. The same NYC that has a population larger than 40 US States individually and about the same as the 10 least populous States combined.

[OilemFirchen]

29. Uh... no.

The lede here is Sanders, who was expected to win the Iowa Caucus. If he fails to do so, and follows that up with a second-place showing in New Hampshire, he's toast. Done. Finis.

Of course, it ain't over 'til David Sirota relaxes his tight grip on the fat lady's throat.

[LongtimeAZDem]

31. Nah

[Iliyah]

37. At this point I'm real happy about Mayor Pete . . .

And quite happy that VP Biden will get delegates. He will get delegates in NH and so on. . .

So will Mayor Pete get delegates, and so on. . . . and I guess the person who gets the most delegates and front runner status will win the nomination.

Therefore, at this point in time, VP Biden looks real good and Mayor Pete is on his way.

[katmondoo]

39. No one should pay attention to Iowa, there is something very fishy about this.

[treestar]

43. only one state geez

[mike_c]

50. honestly, I think Joe Biden made a serious strategic error...

...in sitting out the 2016 primary. Just my opinion, of course, but I think he would have been a much stronger candidate as vice president of a well respected administration (among democrats). That advantage didn't last forever, and the interim years have brought significant changes to liberal voters' expectations.

[stopbush]

58. I agree. 2016 was Joe's obvious shot at POTUS. People loved Obama

and Joe was 4 years younger. Missed opportunity.

[oasis]

51. The door is open for Bloomberg to bankroll Joe, the eventual nominee.

Wide open.💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵💵

Thanks in advance

[J_William_Ryan]

52. Well...

“The entrance polls showed Sanders doing really well among non-white voters in Iowa.”

All six on them…

[FloridaBlues]

53. Wishful thinking sorry but not going to happen

Didn't finish distant 4 only 1.6% behind Warren and he may move up when votes come in. Might caught up with her already!

[IluvPitties]

57. The race just started. Relax and let's watch how it progresses.