Buttigieg now at 81% to win the most SDE

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

?s=20

Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Buttigieg now at 81% to win the most SDEs, according to our live forecasting model, even though his lead narrowed with 71% of precincts now reporting

[HarlanPepper]

1. Go Pete Go!

[BlueIdaho]

2. Good for him!

How many more caucuses and primaries are there?

[Zolorp]

6. Something like 53.

[BlueIdaho]

9. That's a long road. nt.

[Legends303]

3. It's only 71% still have much to go

I think Sanders may barely win this thing and satellite votes haven’t been counted yet.

[radical noodle]

13. Satellite votes in Florida

went mostly for Amy and Pete.

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

28. The one in Palm Springs shut Sanders out completely.

[JoeOtterbein]

4. Even if Bernie is still ahead 1000+ votes? nt

[Zolorp]

8. Bernie wrote the rules and demanded they be passed. The DNC accommodated

So there is that.

[JoeOtterbein]

14. Who got the most votes? Why is that so complicated?

(little emoji guy with arms out in wonder)

[Zolorp]

16. Bernie demanded they do it the way they did.

Here's the scenario.

Precinct 1 and Precinct 2 have the same number of voters registered and the same number of delegates to the state convention.

Precinct 1 has 2000 voters show up to the caucus and Precinct 2 has 1000 voters show up. Both still send the same number of delegates to the state convention.

Bernie gets 500 votes in Precinct 1 and Pete gets 500 votes in Precinct 2. Pete gets twice as many state delegates as Bernie with the exact same number of votes.

These are the rules that Sanders demanded be put in place and the DNC accommodated his demands completely.

Why are you complaining? Bernie got exactly what he demanded the DNC hand him.

[David__77]

17. It's like the electoral college.

They’ll probably split the DNC delegates. The popular vote in the aggregate doesn’t count in terms of delegates.

[W_HAMILTON]

19. It's not like the electoral college.

From what was explained earlier, the different weights of the different precincts are based on the number of people in those precincts. The electoral college is like that with the higher population states, but not with the lowest population states, which are always guaranteed a bare minimum number of electoral votes regardless of how small their population is.

Someone else explained this better in another thread; maybe they will chime in here or maybe you will see their post when browsing through the other threads.

[JoeOtterbein]

20. I like the popular vote. ntn

[W_HAMILTON]

21. So do I.

If we had eliminated all caucuses and went with all primaries with popular vote winners back in 2016, some so-called revolutions would have never even gotten off the ground.

[Tiggeroshii]

27. Not true

Even if they lost iowa, NH would always be won in a landslide.

[Fresh_Start]

30. caucus system is the opposite of the popular vote

if you want popular vote, demand primaries.

[LanternWaste]

34. Who is arguing otherwise?

But saying "I like bicycles" when you're at a furniture store getting a new couch is pretty much irrelevant.

[David__77]

24. The shared characteristic is a weighting scheme different from votes cast.

It is not the same as the electoral college.

[LanternWaste]

33. How does the process work? Why is that so complicated?

(little emoji guy taking a drag from his cigarette)

[RandySF]

10. From what I heard lasr night

A candidate can draw 2,000 votes in a single primary but there's still a limited number of delegates to go around. So is it possible that Pete won more precincts but with smaller margins?

[JoeOtterbein]

15. Wow. That shows clearly to me that we should just count the damn...

...VOTES!

[squirecam]

25. Every candidate knew the rules

Perhaps Bernie should have gotten more votes outside the college towns.

The nomination is determined by the delegates. Pete has more. He is winning.

Bernie was a strong second, though not as strong as in 2016.

[FreeState]

29. This on so many levels

If Burnie couldn’t figure out how Iowa’s election works, after running before, I worry about his abilities to run the government. Strategy is important.

[LanternWaste]

35. Odd you never made this argument prior to Bernie's dramatic loss.

But we get it... the rules-as-is didn't really work to Bernie's favor this time around, so it's the fault of the process working the way it's supposed to. Never Bernie's.

[Garrett78]

5. SDEs typically determine who is considered the caucus winner, but shouldn't be confused...

...with pledged delegates. Buttigieg and Sanders are projected to end up with the same number of pledged delegates, followed closely by Warren. Sanders has a popular vote lead. It's a very screwy and confusing way of doing things.

[Fresh_Start]

31. don't confuse caucus with popular vote, they are not the same thing

a primary system has the popular vote

[CaliforniaPeggy]

7. Go get 'em, Pete!

[MontanaMama]

11. How exciting!

Happy for Mayor Pete.

[stonecutter357]

12. K&R

[ismnotwasm]

18. That's actually fairly cool, considering what he's up against

Makes me smile.

[Cha]

23. Me too..

[Cha]

22. KR

[Iliyah]

26. 99 counties in Iowa . .

To date . .

Mayor Pete wins 60
BS - 18
Warren -0-
Biden - 7
Amy - 4

There is 10 counties left.

[MineralMan]

32. That could be correct. However, Iowa

still sends only about 1% of the delegates to the Democratic convention. That's far more significant.