Lets compare Iowa and New Hampshire...

[brooklynite]

Iowa Caucus Vote:
@BernieSanders:
2016=49.2%
2020=26.1%

@peteButtigieg
2016=0%
2020=26.2%

New Hampshire Primary Vote:
@BernieSanders:
2016=60.1%
2020=25.0% (Suffolk poll)

@peteButtigieg
2016=0%
2020=19% (Suffolk poll)

[DanTex]

1. Umm, might want to asterisk that caucus vote, since they stopped counting right when they got to the

districts that broke heavily towards Bernie.

[TwilightZone]

4. They're still counting in Iowa.

From USA Today, 10 minutes ago:

"Yes. They're still counting in Iowa. Stop asking."

But, hey, feel free to stick to conspiracy theories.

[33taw]

9. I actually thought the remaining countries appeared to favor

Biden. Not that it will matter for him at this point.

[TwilightZone]

12. 100% in, Buttigieg wins.

https://results.thecaucuses.org/

What was that you were saying?

[jmg257]

2. Is Bernie leading in that poll?

On Edit:

Apparently so...leads Pete, leads Biden, leads Warren...

Sanders’ support was at 25 percent in the poll, the third of seven the center is conducting in the run-up to the nation’s first primary on Tuesday...That’s a slight bump from the 24 percent Sanders scored in both Monday’s and Tuesday’s polls

Biden, who dropped from 18 percent in Monday’s New Hampshire poll to 15 percent on Tuesday, as early results from the problem-plagued Iowa caucuses showed him in fourth place there, drifted further from the top on Wednesday, coming in at 12 percent.

Buttigieg, who had surged from 11 percent on Monday to 15 percent Tuesday, tying him with Biden, soared even higher on Wednesday, with 19 percent support in the poll.

Warren held steady at 11 percent, compared to 13 percent Monday and 10 percent Tuesday.

All other candidates were in the single digits, and 14 percent of voters were undecided.

[brooklynite]

3. Yes; with half the support he had in 2016...wonder where it went?

[jmg257]

6. Looks like Pete got a big share. Curious how many candidates were in NH in 2016? Wiki shows a BUNCH!

[TwilightZone]

7. Sanders and Clinton were the only major ones.

O'Malley had already withdrawn by then.

The others were mostly unknowns who filed but weren't in the debates or the national conversation.

[jmg257]

8. Ah - thanks...so with only 2 notable candidates in 2016, and 4 or more now, is it surprising Bernie

has less percentage (in a poll anyway) now than then?

[TwilightZone]

10. Yes and no.

It makes sense that his percentage would be lower with more viable candidates in the race, but it was also conventional wisdom in 2016 that his supporters were pretty loyal, so the drop is probably some of the former (more candidates in the race) combined with the possibility that his base might not have been quite as attached to him as some might have thought. Warren, in particular, was likely to draw some from his 2016 crowd. And some of the 2016 crowd may not be voting in the 2020 primaries.

[jmg257]

11. Thanks - your insight very much appreciated! Cheers! nt

[TwilightZone]

5. It would be interesting to know what % of the drop was 2016 voters who didn't vote in 2020

vs. how much shifted to other candidates.