New Hampshire Votes In Three Days. Many Voters Could Still Switch Candidates. (from 538.com)

[BootinUp]

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week

Fresh off a strong performance in Iowa, Sen. Bernie Sanders is ahead by 9 percentage points in our New Hampshire polling average and has a 74 percent chance of winning Tuesday’s primary, according to our forecast.1 That may sound like Sanders is an overwhelming favorite in the Granite State, but the race is still wide open. If the primary were held multiple times, Sanders would lose New Hampshire about 1 in 4 times, according to the forecast — about as likely as flipping a coin twice and getting heads both times.

Why is there so much uncertainty about the New Hampshire outcome, given Sanders’s lead in the polls? First of all, it’s a primary, and polling primaries is notoriously difficult: A larger share of voters in primaries are open to switching between candidates. And there will be several opportunities for New Hampshire voters to do between now and Tuesday. For one, the mess in Iowa is still sorting itself out. Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who our forecast thinks has a 20 percent chance of winning the state, could potentially benefit from the victory he claimed in Iowa. Friday’s Democratic debate could also sway voters, so we’re waiting for more polling.

Just how big is this group of people that could still change their mind? Polls have found that about two-fifths of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire say they might change their mind before next Tuesday’s primary, though voters’ commitment varied by candidate.

A Suffolk University poll conducted after the Iowa caucuses found 43 percent of likely primary voters said they could change their mind. Among Sanders supporters, 6o percent said their mind is made up. Sixty-seven percent of former Vice President Joe Biden’s supporters and 59 percent of Buttigieg supporters said the same, compared to about 45 percent of Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar’s supporters. (Overall, the poll reported Sanders leading the field with 25 percent support, Buttigieg second at 19 percent, Biden at 12 percent and Warren at 11. Fourteen percent of respondents also said they were undecided.)

continued at 538.com

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. Tonight is shaping up to be a very important debate n/t

[TexasTowelie]

2. So the article indicates that Biden's supporters are the least likely to change their preference.

Bad news for Klobuchar and Warren since their supporters are most likely to realign with another candidate--both need strong debate performances. Biden and Buttigieg are most likely to benefit from any realignment.

[still_one]

3. The Caucus is far more difficult to predict because of its structure than a primary