Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumGood new and Bad news for Bernie in New Hampshire...
Good News: Trend data is fairly solid over past week. Bernie will probably lead the NH Primary results with 28-30% of the vote.
Bad News: Bernie's support in New Hampshire is down 50% from the support he had in New Hampshire in 2016 (60.1%)., and was down the equivalent amount in Iowa. That tells me that Sanders' support was in two parts: 30% or so are his dedicated base voters, but 30% were people who, for whatever reason, didn't like Hillary Clinton, and Sanders was the only alternative. As soon as they have alternatives (like this year) they leave Bernie behind. Not the basis for building a "revolution".
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mainstreetonce
(4,178 posts)Thanks
Go good guys!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,878 posts)huge turnout predicted. ...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)At this rate Bernie is going to "support is down from 2016" his way to the 2020 nomination.
Pssst. 2020 is a multi-candidate race. Pass it on.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)...why is that good news?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Again, I jus love this "support is down from 2016" meme. Again, at this rate Bernie is going to "support is down from 2016" his way to the 2020 nomination.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Champion Jack
(5,378 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,396 posts)This was reported on Bloomberg
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,992 posts)...Biden not being able to hold on to all Hillary's 2016 voters? Going in, he was in the same "moderate frontrunner, presumed nominee" position she was but actually has better favorables than she did.
If the answer you come up with for that one is "more competition," the same applies to Bernie. Or do you another answer that doesn't?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)Nt
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)25.6 to 28.5 (up 2.9%), but Buttigieg's support has gone from 14.8 to 22.0 (up 7.2%) That shows Sanders losing ground. Plus, as you point out, his support this time around is less than half in the last cycle.
Someone who is from the neighboring state with virtually the same demographics and economics and geography should be attracting more support.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
msongs
(67,441 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tom Rinaldo
(22,913 posts)For example, accepting your assumption, let's agree that only half of Bernie's's 2016 support was strongly behind him as their enthusiastic first choice. Your next conclusion is flawed: "but 30% were people who, for whatever reason, didn't like Hillary Clinton, and Sanders was the only alternative." Sanders may have been the only alternative, but all of our political races ultimately come down to a binary choice. It just happened much sooner than usual in 2016. What about voters who liked Hillary well enough in 2016, but who preferred both Warren and Sanders over her, in that order? This year they get to vote for Warren if they want to as their first choice. And what about a working class voter who thinks both Biden and Sanders stand up for the little guy? In 2016 that person may have voted for Sanders but this year they finally get a chance to vote for Biden. That person might still pick Sanders as their second choice.
You characterize half of Sander's 2016 support as only "anti-Clinton". Sure, there was some of that. There are always some who vote against someone rather than for anyone. What makes you think that any of our candidates in this crowded filed would not have polled much better than they now do if it was a two person race instead? Do you think Biden would poll higher than he now does if the race was boiled down to him and Bernie? If it was Biden running in 2016 rather than Hillary in a two person race, do you doubt for a second that he would have won over 40% of the vote under those circumstances rather than the 10% to 20% that he's likely to win this time?
The better question is whether any of our candidates other than Sanders can count on the strong enthusiasm of most of the voters who select them at this stage.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Nanjeanne
(4,975 posts)Bernie is still ahead.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided