David Corn: The Democratic Primary Is About to Get Wild After New Hampshire

[babylonsister]

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/02/the-democratic-primary-wild-after-new-hampshire-bernie-sanders/


The Democratic Primary Is About to Get Wild After New Hampshire
Caution: chaos ahead.
David Corn
Washington, DC, Bureau ChiefBio | Follow

snip//

The New Hampshire and Iowa results—and national polls—suggest that Sanders has a solid core of support of about 25 percent. (Buttigieg’s die-hard bloc is harder to assess at this point.) And if four or so other major contenders stick around, this one-in-four slice could propel Sanders to place first in many of the primaries and caucuses to come. But that’s not necessarily enough for Sanders to take a commanding lead in delegates. In the GOP, the first-place finisher in many primaries snag all the delegates. (That rule benefitted Trump in 2016.) In the Democratic contests, all states award delegates on a proportional basis. That would make it tough for a candidate who wins primaries with smaller percentages to acquire a majority of delegates. (Sanders and Buttigieg are projected to earn the same number of delegates out of New Hampshire.)

After New Hampshire, Sanders and his devotees can declare that—and celebrate that—he’s the leader. But can Sanders, with his call for a political revolution, coax other Democratic voters into his camp? For years, Democratic strategists have contended that Sanders has a high floor but a low ceiling. He rattles centrist, moderate, and corporate Democrats. And it was common to hear non-Sanders voters in New Hampshire repeat the fear that Sanders’ embrace of the “democratic socialist” label will doom him and the party, should he become the nominee.

Those non-Sanders voters have been divvied up mainly between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Warren, and the free-falling Joe Biden. How many of them can Sanders reach? His advisers maintain he will expand beyond his robust base by making progress with African American and Latino voters, who will play big roles in the next face-offs in Nevada and South Carolina. But Biden is counting on black voters to keep his political career alive, and Warren has also aimed organizing efforts at voters of color.

Then there’s Bloomberg. He is the X-factor of the Democratic contest and engaging in an intriguing political science experiment. Can a billionaire dump all that money into a race and buy a seat at the table? Will his presence further divide the non-Sanders voting bloc and actually help Sanders preserve a plurality? Will the former Republican mayor of New York City become the first choice of Dems who crave an alternative to Sanders? In that event, the Democratic nomination contest could turn into a vicious battle between the anti-billionaire socialist and an actual billionaire.

There’s a lot of supposin’ going on in the immediate aftermath of New Hampshire. This election did not afford the Democrats a major sorting out, and they may now be slouching toward a race in which the front-runner consistently comes in first with only 25 to 30 percent of the vote. What will happen if the number-one delegate-grabber only grabs a third or so of the delegates? There will be plenty of time between now and the convention in the summer to cook up and ponder all sorts of possible scenarios.

As voters headed toward the polls in New Hampshire, political reporters, who had spent many hours with the state’s undecided voters, repeatedly proclaimed the race was volatile. It was. (See Klobuchar’s rise and Biden’s collapse.) The opening primary crowned a front runner, but it did little to remove the volatility from the contest. Here comes a wild ride.

[frazzled]

1. Absolutely. At this point ...

I don’t see any of the candidates ending up with a majority of delegates. That could change, but right now it seems like we will be moving toward a contentious brokered convention.

[Renew Deal]

2. The quadrennial consternation about brokered conventions has begun

[customerserviceguy]

6. I have to say

It looks more likely than any time since I became politically aware in the 1960's.

[Wednesdays]

3. Wild will be if there's nobody with a majority come convention time

And a raucous convention with multiple ballots.

In which case, tRump will be dancing a jig.

[honest.abe]

4. Proportional delegate system will stop Sanders.

He might win several states on Super Tuesday but he wont be able to gain a big lead with delegates awarded on a proportional basis. So as candidates drop out, the moderate anti-Bernie voters will coalesce on a single candidate, like Amy, Pete, Biden or Bloomberg. Then that candidate will become the front runner and likely win the nomination.

[customerserviceguy]

5. Well made points

The old adage, "There are three tickets out of Iowa and two tickets out of New Hampshire," has fallen to the wayside.

[Laelth]

7. Yep. It's gonna be a wild ride.

A brokered convention is a real possibility this year.



-Laelth

[Dem2]

8. Might not be a bad thing

I see no reason to have one person with a target on them and a mentally unstable bully tossing bombs at them.

Also, later in the process gets more people involved thinking their vote matters.