Breaking: first national poll after NH, Sanders 29 Biden 19 Bloomberg 18

[Bumperstickers]

https://morningconsult.com/2020/02/13/sanders-cements-front-runner-status-after-new-hampshire-win/

Sanders Cements Front-Runner Status After New Hampshire Win


Sanders 29
Biden 19
Bloomberg 18
Buttigeig. 11
Warren 10
Klobachar 5

Among black voters — one of Biden’s strongest blocs of support — confidence in his chances of beating Trump fell 10 points, to 21 percent. Roughly a third of black voters (32 percent) said Sanders is Democrats’ best chance to beat Trump, up 9 points from last week, and 21 percent said Bloomberg, up 7 points

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

1. Sanders really better do well in Nevada and South Carolina

O wait.

[OliverQ]

4. Pollsters in Nevada already say Sanders is likely to win.

I don't think he'll win South Carolina though.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

7. He won't win Nevada either

And most likely will not be front runner after South Carolina. If Biden flounders mayor Pete most likely will be.

[OliverQ]

8. He will win Nevada.

Pete can't win South Carolina or Nevada. He has no minority support and South Carolina is too conservative.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

12. Iowa and New Hampshire will sink in

If turn out is large Sanders is toast in both Nevada and South Carolina.

[OliverQ]

14. No, he's not. The top pollsters are already on the ground in

Nevada and they've already said Bernie is going to win Nevada.

[totodeinhere]

22. I'm not sure where you are coming from with that.

I am in Nevada and I see a lot of support for Bernie. I know this is anecdotal of course.

[BlueWI]

34. Sanders has 48% support nationally among Latino voters.

That's a good foundation for a strong showing in Nevada.

[UniteFightBack]

37. I agree. He should enjoy the wins while they last because they won't. They won't. The numbers

don't lie.

[HerbChestnut]

2. It's happening.

[George II]

3. Yep, Bloomberg's up to 18% after 2-3 months. It's happening!

[HerbChestnut]

5. Okay, George.

[OliverQ]

6. Proof that money rules politics and nothing else matters.

[George II]

9. Or that his position on the issues is more appealing than other's.

[OliverQ]

10. Nope, that's not why.

[Lucky Luciano]

27. Lots of people have similar positions.

There is just something different about BBG though.

Hmmm. Wonder what it is.

[Kaleva]

31. Beating Trump is what matters and Bloomberg has the money to fight Trump everywhere

[UniteFightBack]

39. We all know that his bank has something to do with it...but I don't think all. But you're

right money and politics like this ain't great. But that's the way it is right now so we need to roll with it or get rolled..and I'm tired of the latter.

So listen,if you are adverse to Bloomberg maybe you should give Joe another look.
Just think about it - be practical.

[BusyBeingBest]

16. One of my favorite TV moments of all time, thanks!

"STAY @#$%^& CALM!!"

[StevieM]

11. Are people in Nevada allowed to caucus for Bloomberg if they want to?

Do they have the right to do that, or does he have to file in order to be an option out there? Can they choose him, like the way people sometimes write in a candidate's name on the ballot?

[Celerity]

38. There's no write-in option available. He should have at least filed.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-01-02/michael-bloomberg-nevada-democratic-caucus

LAS VEGAS — Nevada Democrats will not be able to caucus for Michael Bloomberg next month. The former New York City mayor and Democratic presidential candidate failed to file with the Nevada State Democratic Party by a Jan. 1 deadline, the party announced Thursday morning.

Bloomberg is intending to bypass the four early voting states, including Nevada, which will be third to express a preference on the Democratic presidential field. Instead, he has his hopes hinged on other states, including California, where a large number of delegates are up for grabs.

Bloomberg’s failure to file with Nevada Democrats means his name won’t appear on preference cards during the Feb. 22 caucus and four days of early caucusing. Caucus attendees stand in groups to express their top candidate choices and also fill out preference cards to provide a record of their choice. There’s no write-in option available.

[StevieM]

44. I believe voters also have the option of chosing "uncommitted."

It will be interesting to see how many people choose to do that.

[thesquanderer]

46. Filing and doing poorly would have been a problem. So unless he intended to compete there in earnest

it was probably better to not to be on the ballot at all so a poor performance could not be spun against him.

[Celerity]

48. that is a legit point nt

[calguy]

13. The poll shows Bernie's vulnerability

Bloomberg catching up fast. If Biden goes down all that support goes to Bloomberg. If Bloomberg goes down, all that support goes to Biden. When Pete get out, where does most of his support go to? Probably not Bernie. Really the only place Sanders can pick up more support is from Warren supporters when she drops out. And Bernie is only now beginning to be seriously vetted. Not a strong position going into the harder part of the campaign.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

17. This this this

Well stated.

[Tom Rinaldo]

18. "the only place Sanders can pick up more support is from Warren supporters" Did you read the poll?

I'll print it again:

"Among black voters — one of Biden’s strongest blocs of support — confidence in his chances of beating Trump fell 10 points, to 21 percent. Roughly a third of black voters (32 percent) said Sanders is Democrats’ best chance to beat Trump, up 9 points from last week, and 21 percent said Bloomberg, up 7 points"

Confidence among Black voters in Sanders being most electable rose 9 points, that's two points more than the rise Bloomberg had, and Sanders rose to 32% in that regard, which is 11% higher than both Bloomberg and Biden score now.

[calguy]

24. Bloomberg's momentum is much stronger than Bernie's peecieved momentum

[BlueWI]

35. And Bloomberg is piling up the primary wins.

Wait. 0 so far?

[thesquanderer]

47. re: "If Biden goes down all that support goes to Bloomberg."

According to morningconsult, the biggest beneficiary of a Biden collapse would be Bernie, he's the highest polling second choice among Biden supporters with 28%, with Bloomberg behind him at 23%.

[Aaron Pereira]

15. Consensus was Bernie had a ceiling of 20% and now he looks poised to crack 30%

Nice trend.

[Bumperstickers]

19. He has now over taken Biden with the black vote

According to this poll, so it looks like he will possibly crack 40% or so if he he wins Nevada and SC

If that happens this thing is over if you are looking at it objectively.

[Aaron Pereira]

20. Also, the latino vote is critical in this primary with Texas and California voting on Super Tuesday.

Sanders has a strong plurality everywhere which is a big surprise considering his lackluster support just four years ago. Black and latino voters moving to Sanders is going to be the big story.

[David__77]

33. I think Sanders will do great in California.

Of course, we shall see soon. These dynamics in play with the other candidates are interesting.

[oasis]

21. Gonna be a bumpy road in Nevada. This M4A/Union dust up ain't over.

[floppyboo]

23. Blowing up that ceiling theory!!! Go Bernie!

Now let's see if this makes the evening news. lol

[BusyBeingBest]

25. Bernie's blowing 'em out of the water!

Wish Amy was doing better, but she might have to rack up a number 2 spot in NV to move up now.

[tritsofme]

26. Biden needs to unleash his Super PAC on Bloomberg and drive up his negatives.

I don’t see another way out for him, Bloomberg is crowding out his lane.

[thesquanderer]

45. Bloomberg is not on the ballot in NV or SC... those are the states Biden needs to focus on,

because if he doesn't come out of those strong, all the rest is probably moot.

[uponit7771]

29. Biden still takes NV and SC and then the rest of Super Tuesday. National polls...

... don't matter as much now and the M$M need for horse race isn't helping but Biden still has a lot of life in it

[dbolski]

30. kicked and recommended

[Kaleva]

32. Neck and neck between Bernie and Bloomberg as to who has the best chance to beat Trump

21% of registered voters think Bernie has the best chance and 20% of registered voters think Bloomberg has the best chance.

Warren and Amy are tied at 3%, just 1 point higher then Tulsi Gabbard who is at 2%. Pete is at 7% and Biden is at 12%.

[UniteFightBack]

36. Waaaa the fuck here. Bloomberg is really eating into Joe's lead. You want to stop Bloom go for Joe

Come on now everybody switch your icon thingy to Joe...

No he ain't perfect
No he ain't the most polished

Yes he'll get all the jobs done that we need
If you don't want Sanders or Bloomie y'all better heed.

[Celerity]

41. many Biden, Pete, and Klobuchar people are fine atm with Bloomberg from what I have seen

If Joe doesn't win SC he is more than likely done, and a non win in NV, if that happens, will further hurt his chances in SC, unless it is a really close loss, IMHO. Biden is really lucky Bloomberg did not run in NV and SC. I think that has been Bloomberg's only strategic mistake so far, but he probably has a good reason why he passed on the two.

[UniteFightBack]

42. I still think Joe Biden can win the swing states we need and even beyond...... Which is

what we need, all we need.

[Celerity]

43. We will know a lot more after Super Tuesday. Not that long to wait, just 18 days.

If Pete falters, I will support Bloomberg as of now. I already voted via overseas ballot for Pete in the CA primary.Biden is 4th on my list, after Klobuchar, but after Super Tuesday, I think she will probably be out, barring some big events, as will Steyer, Warren, and Gabbard and possibly Pete, although that is less likely.

[Nanjeanne]

49. Really Joe, Amy and Pete should all be targeting Bloomberg. They'd have so much ammunition!

[Celerity]

40. ouch here too, from the same poll

The survey of 2,639 registered voters nationwide who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucuses in their state has a 2-point margin of error.

The results are poor reading for Biden, who continues a dramatic drop that erases the national lead he held for over a year until his fourth-place showing in the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses. The decline in Biden’s support comes amid faltering voter confidence over his perceived general-election strength, even as he banks his candidacy for the Democratic nod on the more diverse electorates driving nominating contests in Nevada and South Carolina ahead of Super Tuesday.