Five-thirty-eight is predicting a Sanders win of South Carolina AND Nevada now.

[LaurenOlimina]

"Sanders is forecasted to win an average of 31% of the vote in South Carolina. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 16% and 48% of the vote. He has a 1 in 2 (53%) chance of winning the most votes, a bit better than the second most likely winner, Biden, who has a 1 in 3 (32%) chance."

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/south-carolina/


"Sanders is forecasted to win an average of 40% of the vote in Nevada. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 22% and 58% of the vote. He has a 2 in 3 (68%) chance of winning the most votes, much better than the second most likely winner, Biden, who has a 1 in 7 (15%) chance."

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/nevada/

Details are at the links.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

1. Lol

Oooooook

[OliverQ]

2. If Biden doesn't win at least one of those states, he's done.

[Cal Carpenter]

3. ROFL 538 has him winning literally every primary

I scrolled through them all. My eyes aren't great so I may have missed one but I'm pretty sure Sanders is the 1st pick for every single one.

Obviously some are so far away, and with so many variables these predictions are nearly meaningless, but I laughed as I went.

I think all of it will change after Super Tues, esp with Bloomberg on the ballot.

ETA: I do believe he can take SC and NV, btw. Recent polls have him doing better with POC than he is doing with white people.

[LaurenOlimina]

4. I think the never Sanders vote will head to Bloomberg.

It's starting to look a lot like a brokered convention.

[Cal Carpenter]

5. Bernie is between 17 and 35% in polls as Second Choice for all candidates

I don't think the "never Sanders" vote is that big outside of DU and maybe parts of Twitter. I only know one person like that in real life and I talk politics with a lot of people in a very blue town.

[LaurenOlimina]

6. I know some.

I voted for him in the primary last year. I wanted Warren and will probably vote for her if she is still in it when the primary happens, but I like Pete a lot if we have to have a centrist. I also think he is strong vs Trump. I just can't imagine Sanders being effective. The establishment hates him and that will be a problem after he wins.

Let's hope I'm wrong.

[Demsrule86]

7. No it won't be an issue as he won't win a general...that is the issue...if Biden doesn't win, than I

am voting for Bloomberg when my primary comes...all voters who want to defeat Trump should do the same Sanders will lose a general.

[LaurenOlimina]

10. See... There's one.

I suspect you are not alone.

[Blue_true]

13. I prefer Biden or Warren. But if either one drops out and the other is struggling,

I will vote for Bloomberg in the March 17 Florida primary.

[squirecam]

8. There are no NV polls recently

So this is just speculation

[Cal Carpenter]

9. Well, I suppose there's a fine line between prediction and speculation

but in a recent national poll (Morning Consult, post-NH primary) Sanders has 48% of Hispanic voters and 30% of Black voters. NV is something like one-third Hispanic.

[LaurenOlimina]

11. Amy and Pete will get bumps at the expense of Warren and Biden is my guess.

Those polls are coming.

[Scurrilous]

14. 538 is a joke. Nate changes the averages a lot.

The latest polls are more reliable. For example, new Georgia latest has Biden almost ten points higher than Nate's Georgia averages.

Link to tweet

[Scurrilous]

12. Best answer I can come up with. Actually Nate Silver has lost his mind over Iowa.

Link to tweet

Short answer - Average polls at 538 are adjusted by Nate Silver. He has gone crazy with this and his polls are now shit. He has boosted Bernie in FL by 15% (no new polls just him) since Monday. Because ...who knows. Bernie lost FL in 2016 64% to 36%. It is beyond ridiculous.

Nate's magic wand:

'State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls.'

And shift they have.


Biden up in FL 5ish at 538.

RCP FL Averages: Biden 36.7% Sanders 12.7% Bloomberg 12.0% (A 31 point difference between Biden and Bernie than from 538.)

RCP S. Carolina Averages:

Biden 31.0
Steyer 18.5
Sanders 17.0
Warren 9.5
Buttigieg 5.5
Yang 3.0

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-6847.html


Longer answers including his Iowa freakout (he thinks 4 million TV viewers of Iowa caucus translates into 800 delegates.)

Link to tweet

[MrsCoffee]

15. Lol.

[Otto Lidenbrock]

16. There have been no new polls in NV and SC for a while.

Nate's model is based on extrapolation from IA and NH. Which is pretty unreliable since two extremely white states are unlikely to represent similarly in two diverse states.