Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumJuan Williams: Don't count Biden out
Conventional political wisdom is often wrong.
But in all my years on the presidential campaign trail, I cant recall a time when the accepted wisdom of the moment is so wrongheaded and damaging to one candidate.
To play on a line from Mark Twain, reports of Joe Bidens political demise have been greatly exaggerated.
Yes, the former vice president had a disappointing showing in the first two Democratic presidential contests placing fourth in the Iowa caucuses and fifth in the New Hampshire primary.
But keep in mind Iowa and New Hampshire awarded less than two percent of the available delegates.
The consensus that Bidens 2020 hopes are doomed is also being fueled by the barrage coming from the man who fears his candidacy the most President Trump.
Trump is so scared of facing Biden in a general election that the president got himself impeached for trying to get a foreign leader to damage Bidens campaign.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/483266-juan-williams-dont-count-biden-out
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BusyBeingBest
(8,054 posts)Why was Biden not even the third or fourth choice of the first two states? Do you think it's because Trump's Hunter attacks worked, or is it because of his often unsteady performance on the trail? Old and tired looking? Because lord knows it's not lack of familiarity or resume.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JustAnotherGen
(31,828 posts)Of any of our older (Boomer/Silent) candidates. IE Unsteady.
I do think Iowa and NH are less of a litmus test. They don't represent the massive shift in population we are undergoing. Where the 'new Dominant Culture' is rising - is where candidates such as Biden, Steyer, Bloomberg and yes - even Klobuchar will shine.
We aren't monoliths - but I do think we are pragmatic and know nothing is going to happen with the snap of the fingers. So - practical and pragmatic candidates *I think - just my opinion* might do better outside of the narrow population states.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BusyBeingBest
(8,054 posts)and their (mostly white folk) voting, I'm trying to pin down what it was that made him collapse like that, and what he can do to correct it besides simply relying more on African Americans and Hispanics. His appeal is pragmatic and practical, I agree--he's a known quantity and that is comforting and maybe he'll do better elsewhere, but we definitely need some White Dude Lunchbox votes, and I thought that would have appeared for him at least somewhat.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JustAnotherGen
(31,828 posts)by their beards in Ohio, PA, MI and WI - maybe even in Florida. But - I've completely written off Texas and Florida for Electoral College votes. It's not the voters - it's the Governors in those states.
There's no way that little asshole in Florida isn't going to engage in shenanigans to keep black and brown votes from being counted.
Ditto the big asshole in Texas.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)just disgusting.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BusyBeingBest
(8,054 posts)of the Ukraine stuff, unfair and unlikely as that is.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)damaged our best candidate to win the general....I didn't think it would, I stupidly thought that Dems would rally around him and NOT let that happen.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CalFione
(571 posts).. and neither of those states have many people of color.
Simple as that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BusyBeingBest
(8,054 posts)wanted the Scranton-boy working class Joe white guy image, because that's who the Dems have been losing. On edit--that's why Obama picked him, in large part. His strength with working class whites.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
CalFione
(571 posts)It's not a bad plan, considering POC make up 40% of the Democratic electorate.
We'll see if it pays off in SC.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Ace Rothstein
(3,163 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
CalFione
(571 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Ace Rothstein
(3,163 posts)He needs to pick it up with pretty much every other demo in order to win.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
CalFione
(571 posts)If he wins SC, then he has the air of "comeback kid" going into the Super Tuesday states. That perhaps brings his numbers back up with white voters too, if they perceive he has a chance to win.
Winning breeds winning.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Hes gonna need white folks too.
Without a doubt.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CalFione
(571 posts)He's not even #2 or #3.
But he is #1 among black Democrats at the moment.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
W_HAMILTON
(7,869 posts)...and then Biden's relative poor showing there and all the subsequent bad news about it impacted his performance in New Hampshire.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
yaesu
(8,020 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)in Nevada phrase these facts as SC is do or die and his AA support is eroding; he trails Bernie in
Nevada. Two local online announcements of a BFD, Lt. Gov. Marshalls endorsement, affixed photos of two other candidates to their stories, and in one case, also a story, about Amy, not Joe.
Definitely, a funereal tone pervades any news that, were it about any other candidate would be framed as their being highly competitive, on the verge of overtaking etc.
The language of decline and past failure (two tiny states) for one and success or surge for the rest.
Except for Warren whom MSM elevated for a time in the sun and then precipitously dropped like a hot potato, her name now alongside Bidens in the kiss of death, do or die column.
What Williams points out that is crucial to anyones premature inaugural ball is that Trump has taken on no other candidate and no other held the lead for almost a year nationally and state by state and in toe to toes and was so miserably bashed and dismissed for doing so. God hated a winner then.
I think Joe will prove strong in Nevada and still, despite moneybags coming to town, prevail.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CousinIT
(9,247 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
andym
(5,444 posts)I hope he does better going forward.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Zeus69
(391 posts)When national polls showed Biden to be his clearest threat on the path to reelection. It was soon after that when Burisma reared its head.
The only other candidate I feel Trump and Republicans are worried about is Bloomberg.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Vivienne235729
(3,384 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,321 posts)Link to tweet
These findings show how Biden can get back into the top tier of candidates. Black voters were 13 percent of Nevadas Democratic electorate in 2016, likely large enough to let Biden break the 15 percent threshold there that qualifies him to get delegates with minimal support from other voters. The Democratic primary electorate in South Carolina, the final state to vote before Super Tuesday on March 3, was 61 percent black in 2016. Thats large enough to let Biden win if he gets 40 percent or so of the black vote, even if he gets a paltry 10 percent or so among whites. He will then go into the 14 states voting on Super Tuesday with momentum fueled by black voters.
Bidens bet on black voters should then pay off big. In 2016, black voters comprised at least 19 percent of the Democratic vote in six Super Tuesday states and were about a third to half of the vote in three of them. Biden should finish in the top three in all of those and could even win some depending on how well he does among whites. That gives him media buzz and delegates.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)If does poorly, NV voters could abandon him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Jersey Devil
(9,874 posts)I am not counting anyone out at this point. I remember 1992 voting in the NJ primary sometime in June for Paul Tsongas who was the front runner at the time. I don't think Clinton had even won one primary at that point.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
tblue37
(65,403 posts)But because the media jumped on it to declare his campaign dead in the water, it's in danger of becoming an unfair self-fulfilling prophecy.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden