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Democratic Primaries

Quixote1818

(28,992 posts) Wed Feb 19, 2020, 12:25 AM Feb 2020

1

Why did betting markets suddenly flip to Bernie winning Iowa?

Sanders just shot up 28 cents and Buttigieg just dropped 27 cents?

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5241/Who-will-win-the-2020-Iowa-Democratic-caucuses

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

4 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Why did betting markets suddenly flip to Bernie winning Iowa? (Original Post) Quixote1818 Feb 2020 OP

Speculation RandySF Feb 2020 #1

Maybe this? Cal Carpenter Feb 2020 #2

The results of the recanvassing requested by both campaigns just came out and changed the CentralMass Feb 2020 #3

Because his chances of winning improved dramatically FBaggins Feb 2020 #4

RandySF

(59,439 posts)

1. Speculation

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Wed Feb 19, 2020, 12:29 AM

Feb 2020

It works more like a stock market than a betting market.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cal Carpenter

(4,959 posts)

2. Maybe this?

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Wed Feb 19, 2020, 12:34 AM

Feb 2020

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287536287

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

CentralMass

(15,265 posts)

3. The results of the recanvassing requested by both campaigns just came out and changed the

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Wed Feb 19, 2020, 12:35 AM

Feb 2020

The delta between the two to just 0.08%
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/18/buttigieg-sanders-iowa-recanvass-gap-115898

Based on the recanvassing results, and this was not unexpected, the Sanders campaign has requested a recount.

"Sanders' campaign said it will seek a recount. The Buttigieg and Sanders campaigns have 24 hours to formally request one.
“We now believe a recount will give Sen. Sanders enough State Delegate Equivalents to put him over the top by that metric as well. We want to thank the people of Iowa, our supporters, our volunteers and everyone who made this possible," Sanders senior adviser Jeff Weaver said in the statement."

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

FBaggins

(26,775 posts)

4. Because his chances of winning improved dramatically

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Wed Feb 19, 2020, 12:37 AM

Feb 2020

The recanvas results are now closer than the plausible errors and he has requested a recount.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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